As we all know, new energy vehicle production and sales have grown rapidly in recent years, but when the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers was released, people were still a little surprised. According to
data, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles in China this year reached 6.253 million. At the 2022 World Power Battery Conference a few months ago, relevant reports made bold predictions: China's total new energy vehicle production scale will reach 5.627 million units in 2022. From January to October 2022, the output of new energy vehicles was 5.485 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31.1 times. In the last two months of 2021, domestic new energy vehicle production reached 457,000 and 518,000 vehicles respectively. In other words, the total production volume during this year reached 6.46 million vehicles. In the "2022 Top 100 New Energy Vehicles Report", the top three, BYD , SAIC-GM-Wuling and Tesla , contributed a total of 44% of production.
1 BYD is the only one with a production volume exceeding one million, but delivery will still be a big problem
From the perspective of production, the domestic new energy vehicle market is mainly dominated by independent brands and new car-making forces. BYD has become the most eye-catching brand and is currently the only car company with a production volume exceeding one million. Starting from November last year, as of October this year, the brand's output in one year was close to 1.6 million vehicles, with increasing by 243% year-on-year. However, just comparing the sales volume during this year, BYD still has a demand gap of 190,000 vehicles. In fact, the brand's output surged from September to October this year, with the highest output in October exceeding 210,000 vehicles, which is also related to the fact that there was still a certain amount of inventory before. Even after the third quarter of this year, BYD further expanded its production capacity and , but according to their current sales trends, vehicle delivery will still be a big problem until the first half of next year.
Tesla, which ranks second, has an output of 700,000. After the brand completed the expansion of its Shanghai Gigafactory at the end of July this year, its production capacity has reached 750,000. Unlike other car companies, 38% of Tesla's production is supplied to the global market. For the brand, the production capacity of the Shanghai Super Factory this year is also a bit overwhelmed. In fact, this has a lot to do with the global epidemic. Tesla's foreign factories have successively reduced production, resulting in a significant increase in the pressure on the Shanghai Super Factory's production capacity.
The reason why SAIC-GM-Wuling can squeeze into the top three is the new generation of "national car" Wuling Hongguang MINI. The output of this "scooter" priced under 50,000 yuan accounts for the majority of the entire brand. From the perspective of healthy corporate development, there will undoubtedly be some hidden worries if the situation of over-reliance on a single model for a long time is not changed.
2 “Potential Stock” Aian’s delivery capability is more guaranteed?
The production of new energy vehicles has doubled this year, with the top three performing the most eye-catchingly. Among the top ten, only Aian and Chery can enter the 200,000 production level. As the second intelligent manufacturing center of GAC Aion is completed and put into production in the second half of this year. At present, Aian's overall planned production capacity has exceeded 400,000. It is worth mentioning that although BYD is the most popular player in the new energy vehicle market this year, if the two are compared based on their current production and sales gaps, Aian will have better delivery capabilities.
At present, Aian's overall planned production capacity has exceeded 400,000. Photographed by Liang Luozhe, reporter of Nandu Bay Financial News
Among traditional car companies that have been criticized for new energy as a shortcoming, Chery New Energy's production data is impressive. Of the 227,000 units produced, the vast majority come from the two mini-cars Ant and QQ Ice Cream. The total output of the two has exceeded 200,000 units. Changan Automobile 's production of new energy vehicles has also reached more than 160,000 units, of which Lumin, a mini car, accounts for nearly one-third.
3 "Wei Xiaoli" Jiajia has a hard-to-understand experience.
The production volume has entered the top ten brands. Nezha Automobile , which was originally in the second echelon of domestic new car manufacturing forces, has suddenly emerged, surpassing the original top three Wei Xiaoli. From the first 100,000 units rolling off the production line in January 2022 to the second 100,000 units rolling off the production line in September, Nezha Automobile's production has increased significantly this year, which is also related to the brand's Yichun factory with a production capacity of 100,000 units being put into use in January this year.
"Wei Xiaoli" have already reflected their respective problems in terms of output. According to Zhu Dawei, chief designer of the product center of Wilson Information Technology Co., Ltd., due to the epidemic this year, the supply chain instability problem of NIO has begun to become prominent: In April, due to the epidemic, supply chains in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places were interrupted. The lack of parts caused the factory to suspend production for 5 days, and the output suddenly dropped to 5,000 units. In July, the supply of die-casting parts was insufficient, and thousands of units were produced less. The ideal production capacity schedule of
is somewhat behind the market demand. Currently, the annual production capacity of Changzhou factory is 100,000 units. The second phase expansion has not yet been completed. After completion, the production capacity can be increased by another 100,000 units. The Beijing factory, with an annual production capacity of 100,000 vehicles, will probably not be put into production until the end of 2023.
As for Xiaopeng Motors , the current Zhaoqing factory has an annual output of 200,000 units. Due to the continued decline in terminal sales, there has been excess production capacity of and . Together with the Guangzhou and Wuhan factories under construction, each with a production capacity of 100,000, the production capacity is expected to reach 400,000. If we cannot get out of the predicament of continued decline in sales in the second half of this year, the overcapacity phenomenon may become more serious.
Leapmotor Although the production volume did not enter the top ten, this year's performance also made "Wei Xiaoli" feel the pressure. Since Leapmo's main sales model is affordable and performs well in the mini car market, the brand's future potential cannot be ignored. Compared with other established independent brand car companies, the output of Great Wall's new energy brand HT2 Euler HT3 has also been widened by old rivals such as Changan HT3 and Chery. Since the black cat and white cat were discontinued this year, their production has basically been concentrated on one model, the good cat.
4 BBA battle: Audi production is only one-fifth of Mercedes-Benz and BMW
Among the joint venture brands, North and South Volkswagen have performed well, with both production reaching 100,000 units, but they are only ranked in the top 20. Among the top three Japanese brands, they lack competitive advantages in the field of fuel vehicles. Venucia, owned by Dongfeng Nissan, has only produced more than 40,000 vehicles, making it into the top 30 with only a slight advantage. As for Toyota and Honda, in addition to Dongfeng Honda and Siming , which can still enter the top 40, the annual output of GAC Toyota, FAW Toyota and GAC Honda is less than 10,000 units, especially GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota, which are not among the top 50. The pace of transformation of joint venture brands is generally slow, even for Japanese leaders like Toyota.
As for the luxury brand camp, the BBA Troika’s competition in the new energy battlefield is not much different from that of fuel vehicles. BMW ranks first, and Mercedes-Benz ranks second. The two rank 23rd and 26th respectively. The gap between them is just one Audi. FAW Audi 's new energy vehicle production almost fell out of the top 50, with only 10,000 units. It is obvious that they have been left behind by two old rivals.
5 The truth behind the huge gap between production and sales
For many independent brand car companies this year, a growth point in the production of new energy vehicles lies in exports. Unlike traditional car companies that have considerable inventory figures for fuel vehicles, the large gap between the production and sales of new energy vehicles of some car companies is mainly reflected in exports. For example, BYD, which has unparalleled production and sales, not only dominates the domestic market, but its export volume has also increased significantly. The brand's export volume in 2021 is less than 1,000 units, but as of the first half of this year, this number has reached more than 7,000 units, and the export volume in the past month has reached 12,000 units.
Dongfeng New Energy is another typical example. The brand's annual output reaches 92,000 vehicles, but sales are only 25,000. This is mainly related to the fact that the export volume of the brand's main sales model is as high as 60,000 units. Of course, the difference between production and sales is not only due to exports. For example, the MG brand under SAIC Passenger Cars also has a huge difference in production and sales (nearly 80,000 units produced, more than 2,000 sold in the same period). However, in addition to exports, this car is also due to the large domestic inventory. To put it bluntly, it just can’t be sold.
According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association, from January to November, my country exported 593,000 new energy vehicles, doubling year-on-year, and the proportion of total exports has risen to 21.3%.In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Association, believes that various independent brands are now "going global" in new energy vehicles overseas, reflecting the new rise of China's high-end manufacturing industry. Next, Chinese auto companies will further change the original international auto market structure.
Interview and writing: Nandu·Wancaishe reporter Liang Luozhe
Producer: Southern Metropolis Daily Wancaishe N video
producer: Rong Mingchang Liu Jiangtao Chen Wending
project planner: Wang Ying
project coordinator: Wang Zhuojiang Wu Jingyan Guan Jianming Fan Yuping
executive coordinator: Liang Luozhe Huang Lu
Reporters: Liang Luozhe, Hu Wenwen, Chen Jing'an
Editors: Huang Lu, Guo Yuling, Li Meiyu
Technology: Zheng Bingrong, Liang Xiuxia
Design: Zhang Bo Lin Yongxi
data cooperation organizations: China Automobile Dealers Association , Beijing Jingzhensui Information Technology Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Wilson Information Technology Co., Ltd., Guazi used cars , Gasgoo Automobile Research Institute, Black Cat Big Data Center, Car Quality Network
