has finished 8 rounds of the Premier League in the new season. Looking at the current standings, it can be described in two words: accident! Last season's Premier League champion Liverpool ranked third, while the runner-up Manchester City of the previous two seasons only ranked 10th, 6 points behind the leader Leicester City by one round. Last season, Manchester United dropped to 14th in the league season.
But as the saying goes: "The good show is behind." A season is 38 rounds. Strictly speaking, even 1/3 of the schedule has not been played. As the season progresses, the strong teams will rebound sooner or later, especially after Christmas, the depth of the giants lineup begins to play a role, and then it will be the time to really start to exert force.
In this regard, the well-known big data organization "538" made a prediction for the title of this season. The probability shows that Manchester City is still the biggest favorite to win the championship, with a probability of 46%! This probability is close to 50%, which is already a very high value compared with other giants. But what's interesting is that Guardiola's team is a favorite in all competitions almost every season, including the Champions League.
The Premier League is the most competitive of the five major European leagues, and there is no one. Therefore, the defending champion is even more difficult. Last season's Premier League champion Liverpool, the probability of winning is only 28%. There must be Van Dijk’s injury that affects this probability, but the data shows that the loss of Van Dijk’s impact on Liverpool’s defense has not yet appeared. In the last six games, Klopp's team has only conceded 3 goals.
is Chelsea after Liverpool, but the probability is only 9%. It can be seen that big data is not optimistic about Lampard leading the team to the Premier League, which is actually reasonable. Many of Chelsea’s core players are still very young, and it will take time for the team to truly condense into a championship lineup.
It is surprising that Tottenham, which has been gaining momentum recently, is only 5% to win the championship. But this will not make Tottenham fans feel any frustration, but secretly rejoice. In any event, a big heat is not a good thing, it will bring you extra pressure.
Tottenham is behind Leicester City with a 4% probability. Rogers' team once firmly occupied the third place in the standings last season. But after the restart of the league, he made repeated mistakes, and finally lost in the final round of direct confrontation with Manchester United, was replaced by the opponent, and lost the Champions League qualification. The beginning of the season is still strong, but whether it can avoid repeating the same mistakes, only time can give the answer.
Manchester United have a 3% chance of winning, and the Red Devils fans themselves do not believe that the home team can win. For Manchester United, the most realistic goal this season is still the top 4. However, the instability of the record in the new season makes people feel suspicious. Maybe it is necessary to reinforce the lineup in the winter window like last season, otherwise it will be difficult to replicate the counterattack of last season.
Arsenal have a lower probability of winning than Manchester United, only 1%, which is quite surprising. Because no matter from which point of view, Arteta's transformation of Arsenal is more successful than Solskjaer. In addition to the above 7 teams, the remaining 13 teams have a probability of less than 1%.
