According to statistics, the number of newborns in the country in 2021 was 10.62 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. At the same time, the net increase in total population in 2021 was 480,000, while in 2020, my country's net population growth was still 2.04 million. It is obvious that according to this trend, my country's population is likely to enter the debt era in 2022, and the population alarm has been "sounded". More importantly, my country has now entered an aging society. According to the data of the seventh national census of , the population aged 60 and above in my country has reached 264 million, accounting for 18.7% of the total population. In addition, the Ministry of Civil Affairs predicts that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the national elderly population will exceed 300 million. Compared with more and more elderly people, the growth rate of the number of young people is constantly declining. For example, in the recent four generations, the post-00s and post-10s are 103 million fewer than those born in the 1980s and 1990s.
In order to deal with this problem, my country fully liberalized the second-child birth policy in 2016. Although the number of newborns in my country did increase in 2016 and 2017, as families willing to have second children have given birth to second children, the birth rate began to fall again. In other words, the relaxation of the second-child birth policy can no longer curb the continued decline of the newborn population. For this reason, on May 31, 2021, the country fully liberalized the three-child birth policy. However, the result is that the birth rate in various places has continued to decline since 2022. For example, the birth rate in many cities in Guizhou, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Hubei and other provinces has dropped by 10%. It is obvious that it is difficult to give birth by just liberalizing the birth policy. More importantly, the marriage rate has been declining since the beginning of this year, and the number of people who register for marriage has hit a new low in 17 years.
has no results, and the population number is "warning"?
"warning" of population number, which has been fully reflected this year. In May 2022, India surpassed China for the first time, becoming the country with the largest population in the world. As the population enters an era of negative growth in the future, the population in our country will naturally become smaller and smaller, which is a difficult thing to avoid. For example, the famous economist Ren Zeping pointed out in his report "China's Population Situation Report 2021: Aging, Less Birth, Non-Marriage...": my country's population will fall into negative growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and will shrink sharply around 2050, and its share in the world will drop from the current 19% to 7% in 2100.
As the largest country in the world, my country has been the largest country in the world for thousands of years. In the past, people in our country were very willing to have children. Many families had four or five children, and some families even had eight or nine children. But why are people reluctant to have children now? In fact, in addition to being influenced by the ideas of "late marriage and late childbirth" and "eugenics and excellent parenting", high housing prices and high parenting costs are also the main reasons that affect people's childbirth.
First: The problem of excessive housing prices. For young people, houses are very important, because houses are not only where people live, but also the imagination of home. Nowadays, young people need a house whether they are in love or getting married, and their children will also need a house when they go to school in the future. Especially for young people who are preparing to settle down in the city for a long time, buying a house is a very important thing in their lives. If they do not buy a house, it will directly affect their love, marriage, children's education and future welfare benefits.
But the current housing prices are very high, which leads to most young people not being able to buy a house at all. According to statistics, the current national average housing price is 9,700 yuan/square meter, and the average housing price-to-income ratios of the top 70 cities in the country and 100 cities in the country are as high as 13.3 and 9.2 respectively. What does such a high housing price mean? For example, the average housing price-to-income ratio of 13.3 means that a family needs to work for 13.3 years without eating or drinking for a house. It is obvious that such a high housing price is not affordable for ordinary young people.
But if you don’t buy a house, it will be difficult for young people to fall in love and get married, let alone have children. Faced with such high housing prices, even if you buy a house, many people can only empty their "6 wallets" to buy a house, and they will have to pay a high mortgage every month in the future.Therefore, many young people have no money to fall in love and get married after buying a house. More importantly, even if you get married in the end, you will be under great pressure from mortgage loans and you will not have the financial conditions to have children. For example, there are many young people around me who have bought houses and got married. Due to the high financial pressure, they have postponed their plans to have children to varying degrees. Therefore, it can be seen that the problem of high housing prices is the main reason that directly affects people's childbirth. If housing prices can be lowered and people's housing problems can be solved, then many people will get married and have children early.
Second: The cost of raising children and raising children is too high. As the economic conditions get better and better, parents are paying more and more attention to their children's education. Although people have few children at present, parents also hold the idea of "eugenics and excellent parenting". From the birth of the child to the marriage, parents want to give the best to their children. In this process, not only is the medical cost very high, but the education cost is even higher. According to data released by relevant institutions, the total total cost of education expenses from kindergarten, primary school, middle school and university is approximately between 758,000 yuan and 1.991 million yuan. For first-tier cities, this cost is even higher, and the education costs in Beijing and Shanghai are as high as 2.76 million yuan and 2.47 million yuan.
Due to the cost of raising children, the cost of raising children is also very high. Nowadays, most families make money from working, but having children and raising children will affect the woman's work. It is precisely for this reason that many companies are now unwilling to recruit unborn women. Even women who are already working will seriously affect their work and career once they have children. In addition to these, children's expenses in childhood are also very high. According to statistics, the monthly parenting expenses of "low-income families" and "middle-income families" account for 44% and 30% of the total family expenses respectively. It can be seen that making money from milk powder is not a joke, but a real problem that many families need to face.
Experts and scholars proposed a new plan, and parents all agreed with
From the above two points, it can be seen that housing problems are currently directly affecting people's marriage and having children. If the housing problem is solved, then people have housing and do not bear huge mortgages, then they have the conditions to have children. In response to the problem of high housing prices, the country has started a real estate market regulation model since September 2016, and in the future, "housing for living, not for speculation" has always been the bottom line of real estate market regulation in various places. In addition, in response to education issues, the country has also issued the " double reduction " policy for education, which greatly reduces the educational costs of children.
In addition, many economists and scholars have also given their own suggestions for the above issues. For example, the famous economist Ma Guangyuan suggested that a full reimbursement system should be implemented for the hospitalization expenses for giving birth, preschool education should be included in the compulsory education system as soon as possible, and childbirth leave should be extended. In addition, demographer Liang Jianzhang suggested that a direct reward of 1 million yuan for a third child would be paid by exempting the mortgage loan for families with urgent need to have three children and giving tax rates preferential treatment. Economist Ren Zeping also mentioned his suggestions in his report "China's Population Situation Report 2021: Aging, Less Birth, Non-Marriage...":
Fully liberalized as soon as possible and encourage fertility, so that reproductive rights returns to family autonomy, and accelerate the construction of a fertility support system. 1. Implement differentiated personal income tax deduction and economic subsidy policies, covering from pregnancy health care to 18 years old or the end of academic education; 2. Increase the supply of childcare services, vigorously increase the rate of childcare aged 0-3 years old from the current 4% to 40%, and issue subsidies for intergenerational care; 3. Further improve the protection of women's employment rights and interests, and implement birth tax incentives for enterprises, and accelerate the construction of a reasonable and effective sharing mechanism between the country, enterprises and families; 4. Strengthen the protection of equal rights for illegitimate childbirth 5. Increase investment in education and medical care, maintain long-term stability of housing prices, and reduce the direct cost of raising children.
The above suggestions have indeed solved the most concerning issues for young people and some parents, and have been unanimously agreed by parents. In my opinion, these suggestions are more in line with the problems faced by people in today's society and more in line with the needs of contemporary young people.
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