Now many analysts are analyzing what the international situation will be after this incident. I will summarize the several wars triggered by energy in history, and use real history as a reference.
1. Caucasus Battle
In 1941, the German army suddenly blitzed the Soviet Union and achieved great results. However, after more than a year of combat, the Germans discovered that the Soviet Union had extremely strong resilience, but the Germans were dragged into the snow and ice.
Under such circumstances, Germany decided to launch the Caucasus Battle in an attempt to occupy the most important food and oil production area of the Soviet Union - Caucasus Region .
At that time, more than 93% of all oil and fuel supply in the Soviet Union had to pass through the Caucasus region, of which 59% had to pass through the Baku and Batum, and 28% had to pass through the Chechn Capital Grozny .
At this time, Germany was embargoed by the world because of the war. The oil shortage was very serious. Therefore, Hitler ignored the suggestions of other generals and led the way to take over the Caucasus region.
Hitler said, "If I don't get the oil of Maikop and Grozny, I must end this war." If the oil resources in the Caucasus are mastered by Germany and with the support of oil, Germany will be more powerful.
However, although the Soviets misjudged the strategic goals at the beginning, believing that the Germans would still attack Moscow, after the situation of the war gradually became clear, the Soviets chose to destroy it rather than let the Germans get it.
In November 1941, the Soviet Union began to demolish the oil facilities of krasnodar , and the Soviet Union destroyed most of the installations in the 755 wells in the region. After Germany went through a lot of hardships to seize the Caucasus oil field, it was discovered that Germany needed to invest a lot of personnel and equipment to maintain oil field production.
Wait until the Soviet Union counterattacked North Caucasus on January 17, 1943, the Germans were forced to choose the same tactics as the Soviets - to dismantle the newly repaired drilling and refining equipment, and then retreat.
Ironically, over the past year, the Germans only grabbed 4.7 million barrels of oil from the Soviet Union, which was much better than the Soviet Union provided in a year under the Treaty of Friendship when they did not invade the Soviet Union.
2. sneak attack on Pearl Harbor
In World War II , the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor was the direct reason for the United States to participate in the war. Because the current status of the United States' superpower, the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbor can be said to be well known.
But why did the Japanese choose to go to war with the powerful United States? To put it bluntly, we are still competing for energy.
After the outbreak of World War II, Japan quickly occupied China's coastal areas. Then, the Japanese base chose the southward strategy in the northward and southward strategy, attempting to occupy Southeast Asia and Malaya, and control the Malacca Strait, so as to ensure the transportation of strategic materials such as oil, rubber, and steel that Japan is extremely lacking.
However, although the United States condemned Japan on the surface, it secretly strongly supported Japan's aggression against Asian countries, because the more severe the Japanese invasion, the more various materials it needs, and the only one in the world can provide such large-scale materials.
Japan's super appetite can just fill in the unemployment rate and other problems caused by the United States due to the Great Depression of , ensuring that Americans can make money.
According to statistics from the US media, since the September 18 Incident in 1931, the demand for various military supplies in Japan has soared. In 1937, the export volume of scrap steel provided by the United States to Japan was 40 times that of 1931. In 1937, the value of aircraft sold to Japan by the United States was US$2484,000, but in 1938, the value of aircraft sold to Japan increased to US$174,54,000.
The famous educator Tao XingzhiIn a speech in the United States, he said: I went back to China to participate in the War of Resistance. If one day I was killed by a Japanese bomb, please don’t forget that 54.4% of my body was killed by your United States.
However, as Japan continued to expand its ambitions, in July 1941, Japan occupied the southern part of Indochina and finally grabbed the Americans. After Japan entered Southeast Asia, it had already posed a serious threat to the US's economic interests. So on August 1, the US announced a ban on exporting oil to Japan.
This directly grabbed Japan's lifeline. At that time, 80% of Japan's imported oil came from the United States, so the Japanese decided to just take a big bet and kill , the US Pacific Fleet , and then the United States will be unable to breathe for at least several years, which gives Japan the opportunity to seize the opportunity to develop oil fields on the East Indies.
It’s a pity that Japan bets right on tactics and loses the strategy. With the United States joining the war, although Japan exploited huge amounts of oil in the East Indies (25.9 million barrels were mined in 1942 and 49.6 million barrels in 1943).
However, due to Japan's lack of maritime transportation capabilities and naval strength, this defect became Japan's fatal weakness under the blows of MacArthur and Nimitz .
III. The energy crisis of 1973
On October 6, 1973, Arabs took advantage of the special opportunity of "Yongpu" to launch the Fourth Middle East War of .
At the beginning of the war, the Arab coalition forces won one after another, and Israel was defeated in an all-out manner. However, as time went by, Israel received various support from the West, especially after Nixon ordered the US Air Force to "fly all the flying things to Israel", the battle situation began to reverse, and the Arab coalition gradually became at a disadvantage.
In order to retaliate against the United States for support of Israel, on October 20, Saudi Arabia announced an oil embargo on the United States. Other Arab oil-producing countries then joined and expanded to embargo on Netherlands and some other countries that support Israel, causing the oil crisis in 1973 .
This oil crisis lasted for three years, causing a serious impact on the economies of developed countries. During this crisis, industrial production in the United States fell by 14%, industrial production in Japan fell by more than 20%, and economic growth in all industrialized countries slowed significantly. Global crude oil prices rose by 300%.
After that, the Iran-Iraq War in 1979 and the Persian Gulf War in 1990, once again triggered a global energy crisis.
This time, the Nord Stream pipeline in Europe was bombed. The situation facing Europe can be said to be more dangerous than the previous energy crises. October has arrived and the cold winter is not far away. I hope Europeans will have enough firewood this winter.
