According to lighthouse data, from January 1 to March 31, 2021, the total box office of mainland cinemas reported 18.104 billion, a decrease of 3.2% from 2018.
From the perspective of the film, including a re-released film "Avatar", there are 18 films with a box office of over 100 million. Among them, there are 9 works with a box office of more than 500 million, and the cumulative box office is about 15.3 billion, accounting for 84.5% of the total box office in Q1. Looking at it this way, the market’s head effect is obvious, with large-scale commercial films opening high, and small and medium-sized films lacking space.
Among the 18 films that broke 100 million, the highest "Hello, Li Huanying" with a box office of 5.39 billion, not only defeated the top seed "Detective Chinatown 3", won the Spring Festival championship, and even won the "Magic Boy" "Nezha" stepped on the foot and ascended to the throne of the second runner-up in the film history.
ranked last is the veteran IP movie "Cat and Mouse", which entered the billion-dollar club with a box office of 104 million.
recently released the film, as of writing, the Hollywood production " Godzilla vs. King Kong " has received 575 million box office, to a certain extent, activated the market.
From the perspective of the schedule, due to the effective control of the domestic epidemic, the Spring Festival stalls have once again become the absolute main force in the box office output, setting a record in previous years with data of 7.84 billion. Due to the explosion of "Send You A Little Red Flower", the New Year's Day file garnered a box office of 1.303 billion, which was also higher than the same period before.
However, compared with the "high heat" of the Spring Festival and New Year's Day stalls, the market's performance in the cold stalls was not satisfactory. Compared with the previous five years, the performance of 2.503 billion in March was the lowest during the non-epidemic period. The reason is obvious, the film is not enough. At this node in previous years, large and medium-sized overseas films and small and medium-sized domestic masterpieces will prop up the market.
Just like Peng Xiaoxian (pengxx01 ) predicted after the Shanghai Film Festival last year: Mainland China will become the world's first ticket warehouse; large-scale delay key; low-quality commercial film shortening cinema network Window period; small and medium-sized genre films or literary films are difficult to survive; the supply of new films is insufficient, and more classic old films are re-screened. (Click the text to jump to the previous text)
Currently, these trends will continue in Q2. According to speculation, unless domestically produced films increase the productivity of high-quality works, only if the epidemic in most parts of the world is reasonably controlled, will the domestic market return to its original state.
was also in last year's Shanghai Film Festival. Bona Yu Dong once said that the reserve of movies to be screened can only be used until March 2021. Now that March has passed, the volume of new films to be screened is indeed stretched. Not surprisingly, the movie market in the future will increase its re-screening behavior and tap overseas film sources from multiple channels. As for the performance of the next domestic films, we can look forward to one or two in conjunction with the relevant modalities of Q1.
Observing the Q1 box office rankings, commercial films can "break out of the box" mainly relying on two main directions, one is strong emotional output, and the other is a high-quality industrial production system. Of course, these two directions must be based on good stories.
In recent years, based on the expansion of the domestic film market, the upgrading of production technology and the level of ticket prices, "Mermaid", " Wolf Warriors 2 ", "Nezha's Devil Child", "Wandering Earth", " The big productions represented by "Red Sea Action" and "Eight Hundred" have repeatedly achieved great results, and most of the TOP10 films in film history are such films.
But last year,Affected by the epidemic, the spiritual world of all parties in society needs to be comforted. Under such a premise, coupled with no competing products in the same period, movies with strong emotional output have achieved results that far exceed expectations. "Hello, Li Huanying" and "Send You A Little Red Flower" are just like that.
The two films were respectively paved with exquisite narratives and progressive emotions. The wonderful performances of the actors won the first and second place in the box office of Q1. At the same time, in word of mouth, it has achieved the effect of mutual appreciation between the refined and popular.
In contrast, the movies represented by refined production did not have much surprises in Q1, but given that the production is on the baseline, there are still many bright spots overall.
As the number one seed in the Spring Festival file, "Detective Chinatown 3"'s box office results are not satisfactory, but its "Tang Tang Cosmos" IP thinking has always been implemented. The content of the film is linked to the web drama of the same name and the previous series. . But if you want the vitality of the series, you still need to work harder on the story.
is also a Spring Festival work. The fantasy movie ": assassination novelist" with a large number of special effects ranked fourth in Q1. The film started generally, but slowly simmered by word of mouth, and finally reached 10. Billion box office club. For the same reason, there was also "Bomb Disposal Expert 2", which was released on Christmas last year, which also has strong stamina due to its quality.
Relying on the continuous accumulation of IP value, continuously upgraded content and continuous expansion of the circle of users, the " bear infest" series has become the signature of domestic animation, and the production of a new episode of the series is still With fixed production standards, the corresponding box office is equally satisfactory.
and entering the end of Q1, the Hollywood production "Godzilla vs. King Kong" officially landed in theaters,With a box office of 600 million in 7 days, it proves that large-scale works produced by industrialization will always be the market booster.
In addition, because the relaxed and funny atmosphere can relieve stress, comedy movies still have a certain share in Q1, and "Warm Hug" and "Big Red Packet" are close in the hot and cold periods respectively. 900 million and more than 200 million at the box office.
It goes without saying that large-scale commercial films are always the key to boosting the market’s momentum, and the real measure of the prosperity of the movie market is niche films and literary films. In this regard, the film market in Q1 tends to be sluggish.
In November 2017, " Dream Travels " was spread by word of mouth among the audience with its super high reputation, stepping out of the box office curve of a strong counterattack, and getting more than 1 billion box office. However, in Q1, due to the weaker influence of the broader market environment and publicity, even if the original team of "Dream Travels" created "The Journey of Mind", even if it was a counterattack, its box office performance was far worse than the previous one, with a relevant data of 3.76. Billion.
It can be seen that after the epidemic, the audience's enthusiasm and frequency of watching movies have indeed decreased. Everyone will focus on choosing the head movies. Even if the reputation of the niche masters is "against the sky", it is difficult to get out of the big explosion curve, at most It is a small explosion and has a greater influence in the circle.
There is a similar situation with the Russian film "Hunt and Kill T34". The film’s excitement and reputation are no less than the 2019 film "Loss Munich", but the latter has a box office of over 100 million. The former's box office as of March was only 23.261 million. This also shows that in addition to the environment and audience factors, the theater's patience for niche masterpieces is not as high as before, and it can't wait for its reputation to ferment.
Compared to quality,If the niche masterpieces can still be harvested at the box office that reaches the passing line, then the Q1 market is very cruel for high-quality literary films.
Take "Meet Nara", which was released in mid-to-late March as an example. The film was produced by the major directors of China and Japan, , Jia Zhangke , and Naomi Kawase. It has been shortlisted for many film festivals, but it has not received the box office so far. 5000000. There is also "Auspicious Ruyi" directed by Dapeng. The work has been recognized by a well-known domestic film award with a pioneering creative method and simple and sincere emotion. However, even under the premise of strong publicity, the box office still Less than 15 million.
Entering Q2, the Ching Ming Festival and the May Day Holiday will come one after another. At these two schedule nodes, there will be "My Sister", " Above the Cliff" and "Secret Visitor". Films with a certain commercial volume such as "Antique Bureau Intermediate Bureau" are released. It is expected that they can drive the film market and lay the foundation for the summer and National Day files in the second half of the year.
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