The roulette of the three major oil-producing countries of Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia has reached its final showdown. After the breakdown of OPEC and Russia negotiations, Saudi Arabia continued to increase its oil production, which is now maintained at a high of 13 million barrels per day. Russia is not to be outdone, and oil production continues to increase. After the oil avalanche, the Russian ruble plunged. At one time, one U.S. dollar could be exchanged for more than 80 rubles. The Central Bank of Russia abandoned huge amounts of US dollars every day to stabilize the exchange rate. Now the Russian ruble has finally stabilized and the exchange rate has dropped to around 77 rubles.
Faced with the attacks of the United States and Saudi Arabia, Russia believes that life in the United States is more difficult than Russia. The new crown pneumonia virus has fully broken out. The total number of confirmed cases has exceeded 300,000. The stock market has been fuse five times. The cost of shale gas oil extraction is high. Bankruptcy, therefore, in this oil war, the United States will be the first to lose. For this reason, after the Russian ruble stabilized, it continued to hit the market. Ural oil exported to some refineries in northwestern Europe has been as low as 10.54 US dollars a barrel.
Russia took the initiative to wield a butcher knife, and the oil smashed into the market, which was unexpected by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia was also at the end of the country, and global oil consumption was drastically reduced. Saudi Arabia’s increased oil production could no longer find potential buyers. U.S. President Trump called the Saudi Crown Prince and asked for an urgent OPEC expansion meeting to start a new round of negotiations, demanding that Saudi Arabia and Russia reduce oil by 10 million barrels a day.
However, Putin did not agree to Trump's request. Ural oil fell to 10.54 US dollars a barrel, which was a counter-attack to the United States. You must know that the price of oil is so low that Russia is already losing money. At such a critical time, Belarusian President Lukashenko was unwilling to be lonely, and stood up with a tough attitude, demanding that the price of Russian oil exported to Belarus should be 4 US dollars a barrel.
On April 3, local time, Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Rumas claimed that President Lukashenko's attitude was consistent and tough, demanding that the price of oil exported from Russia to Belarus in April should be 4 US dollars a barrel. If Russia does not Given such preferential conditions, Belarus will refuse to import oil from Russia, but will go to the market to find lower-priced and better-quality oil (implying that Ural oil has many impurities and is of poor quality, which is not as cost-effective as Saudi oil). According to Zhang Wenping's military analysis, Lukashenko is arguing against Putin at this time. The oil war between Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States has reached the most critical juncture. What Russia needs is a stable rear. We have made it clear that we will not To import oil from Saudi Arabia again, the subtext is that it will import a large amount of oil from Russia. This is where Russia's confidence in launching an offensive against the United States lies. In fact, Belarus is also the rear of Russia.
The cost of Russian oil delivery to Belarus is lower, but the oil price of 4 dollars a barrel is obviously unreasonable. It has already fallen below the cost price. The reason why Russia exported 10 dollars a barrel of oil to Northwestern Europe was to precisely suppress Saudi Arabia. Oil exports are not a long-term solution. In this way, Belarus challenged Russia and left Russia in a dilemma. However, Russia also has a solution.
At the end of 2019, the oil negotiations between Belarus and Russia were at a deadlock. Belarusian President Lukashenko appealed to the world that Russia used energy as a threat to ask Belarus to join the Russian Federation. Lukashenko’s voice was too loud. At the last moment, Putin gave in. In Putin’s strategy, as long as Lukashenko agrees to the in-depth development of Russian-Belarusian integration, Russia and Belarus establish supranational institutions and establish a joint parliament. Belarus can use Russian oil for free. Unfortunately, the old fox Lukashenko does not agree. Now, while still taking advantage of Russia’s danger, it requires Russia to export $4 a barrel of oil to Belarus. I have to say that Lukashenko is really cunning. Follow this number to learn more.
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