Since Ukraine counterattacked in Kherson and Ijium on September 4, Russia has entered a strategic defensive in multiple directions. Although Khlsong relaxed defeated Ukrainian multiple attacks, after evacuating Ijum, Russia's defense operations in the Oskir River area were very difficult. The Russian side's main defensive forces are the Third MoF Division and the 144th Division, which have strong defenses, but Ukraine still has a local military advantage in this area. At present, several roads in Hongliman have been cut off, and only one logistics channel is left. The position of the 20th Army in the north has been broken through. Russia's troops defending Hongliman are easily "making dumplings". This is also called Ukraine's " Stalingrad " by some Western military experts, and is a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
According to social media reports, Ukrainian troops have broken through the Donets River in the east and the Osgil River in the north. Therefore, an clamp-shaped offensive was formed around the Chongliman. At present, the iron clamp has not been closed yet, and Russia only has one logistics channel left to maintain external contact and supply. Many experts already believe that the Russian side may have been organizing a retreat, just like evacuating Ijium. Otherwise, once the Ukrainian encirclement is closed, some experienced veterans of the Third Mofan Division and the 144th Division may be reimbursed.
Once the dividend Mann is lost, the flanks of Lugansk and Donetsk will be hit by Ukraine. This is equivalent to the four Ukrainian states initially captured by Russia, at least one-third of them are in danger of being lost, which makes the previous referendum meaningless. Of course, in the face of this situation, Russia did not have any reaction at all. According to Ukrainian reports, Swatov, Chongliman and Kubyansk have all found that there are Russian troops supplemented, but these new recruits are not strong in combat and cannot be compared with Ukrainian elite counterattack troops using NATO weapons. They are also scattered and not organized reinforcements, so their role is not obvious.
In addition to the more than 20,000 people who participated in the counterattack and the troops crossing the river one after another, Ukrainian side is said to have added tens of thousands of new people around, trying to continue to expand the results of the war before the Russian side came to reinforce. Of course, there are many military fans who are surprised that the Russian side is behind the boss. Even if the Siberia is dispatched to reinforce, it should be reached. So why does the Russian side sit idly by and watch the boss Man be in danger of losing, and does not make great efforts to reinforce? It should be said that Russia has no trump cards available now, that is, it lacks a strategic reserve team.
Currently, Ukraine and Russia have more than 600,000 to more than 100,000. Russia not only has to withstand the reverse Ukrainian counterattack of the dividend Mann, but also has to defend in Donitsk, Zaporoze and Khlsomian respectively. The front line extends throughout Ukraine, and the defensive pressure on each front can be imagined. Not to mention Khlsong, Zaporoze is also very important. Once the Ukrainian side breaks through, it can reach the coastline in less than 100 kilometers, cutting off the land connection between Khlsong and Crimean Peninsula , which is far more difficult to accept than losing the dividend Mann. Therefore, the last reserve team of the Russian side was sent here to strengthen its defense. In this way, in the dividend area, Ukraine has a significant advantage in numbers, and it also has the help of Himas and the battlefield perception ability of the West. It is already very good to fight the strike efficiency and offensive with the existing Russian forces.
Faced with the current situation of winning Mann, if Russia does not withdraw and does not send strong aid, then this may be the first large-scale encirclement and annihilation war since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Before, Russia had many opportunities to encircle and annihilate Ukraine, but because of concern that the encircle and annihilation war would suffer too much, even a battalion-level encircle and annihilation war would not fight, which allowed many of Ukraine's live forces to slip away and make a comeback. But obviously Ukraine doesn't care. It must fight an encirclement and annihilation war, which can not only complete the Western KPI, but also boost morale. But it is too early to say that the dividend Mann is the turning point of Ukraine's "Stalingrad". After all, Russia has just begun the first round of mobilization of 300,000 yuan, and its overall national strength is still there. At the same time, the entire Lugansk is originally the newly acquired region of Russia. Russia can choose to counterattack or defend.Overall, before the Russian side completes mobilization and training, there is only one phased defense to exchange space for time, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict this winter will not be calm.