"Military Martial Plane" Author: Da Yiwan
Recently, the Chinese Navy released a promotional video for the 10th anniversary of the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier , and conducted a panoramic display of the battle and training of the Chinese Navy's "Liaoning" ships , "Shandong" ships and "Fujian" ships. There are many details worth mentioning in this. Of course, everyone has raised doubts about some of them.
For example, according to the information released by CCTV Military Channel, it was said that The first 1,000 take-off and landing of the Chinese Navy The Liaoning aircraft carrier took 5 years, and the second 1,000 take-off and landing of the second 1,000 take-off and landing of the second 1,000 take-off and landing of the Liaoning ship will take a shorter time. Although this is true for episode , many military fans are more or less unhappy.
After all, The USS "Calvinson" aircraft carrier set a world record of 975 takeoffs and landings in four days, and no aircraft carrier can break it at present. That is to say, The take-off and landing order of a US aircraft carrier in the past four days is close to the take-off and landing order of the "Liaoning" ship in several years. The two phases and one comparison is a clear judgment. The difference between us is really too far.
However, Ivan thinks that we should also see the current reality in the aircraft carrier industry. What is the reality? The reality is that for a long time, there are only so many aircraft carrier-based , and there are so many carrier-based pilots. It was even in recent years that the training system for aircraft carrier-based pilots has been initially straightened out and large-scale training of aircraft carrier-based pilots has begun. Before this, to put it bluntly, our carrier-based aircraft pilots are really a carrot and a pit, and they are all real elite instructors. There are few carrier-based aircraft pilots and not many carrier-based aircraft, so naturally the take-off and landing orders cannot be reached.
What's more, in the development of aircraft carriers, we often adopt the development idea of steady progress, and the overall intention of being stable in aircraft carrier projects is relatively clear. In addition, compared with the US aircraft carrier, our "Liaoning" ship has a shorter deployment cycle and the tactical usage patterns of the two are also different. Even the "Liaoning" ship was originally called an "aircraft carrier training platform." These factors combined determine that the take-off and landing order of the "Liaoning" ship has a gradual increase. But no matter what, as time goes by, I believe that our carrier-based aircraft takeoffs and landings will increase and the aircraft carrier industry will become better and better.
And just as the "Liaoning" ship and the "Shandong" ship carried out practical training in the north and south waters respectively, the "Fujian" ship carried out mooring tests. At the time when it may go to sea for trial voyages from 2023 to 2024, the speculation about the "next aircraft carrier" of the Chinese Navy began to appear online again.
On the one hand, after all, CCTV said that our current three aircraft carriers can just ensure the normal duty cycle of the aircraft carrier after all of them are in service. That is to ensure that there is an aircraft carrier available at any time, and "only one aircraft carrier is available" obviously feels that this appetite is really insufficient for Chinese military fans;
On the other hand, the official account of China Shipbuilding also mentioned that before 2027, technological breakthroughs in the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier technology will be achieved, which has brought great expectations to many military fans, believing that the next aircraft carrier of the Chinese Navy, perhaps the Type 004 aircraft carrier, must be the legendary nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
Is this true? Ivan believes that it may not be necessary. We know that the construction of aircraft carriers requires several conditions to be taken into account: First, the need for troops to prepare for war, second, the technical level and engineering implementation capabilities, and third, the national financial resources. We don’t need to consider China’s financial resources for the time being, let’s talk about the technical level and engineering implementation capabilities first. In terms of technical level, the large ship heavy industry has the ability to build 60,000-ton medium-sized aircraft carrier , while Jiangnan Shipbuilding has the ability to build 80,000-ton large aircraft carriers. The two build 80,000-ton aircraft carrier hulls and load corresponding supporting equipment into ships. In theory, there should be no problems, but there are still some problems that are objective.
On the one hand, it is the issue of the nuclear qualifications of these two shipyards. There is no official news about the Jiangnan Factory and Dalian Factory launching nuclear qualification certification, and there is not even an official news about the preparation for certification. In other words, at present, whether it is the Jiangnan Factory or the Dalian Factory, at least in the open and public information we can find, it does not have the technical conditions to install the core component of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier nuclear reactor . Of course, it is not ruled out that these two factories have already started nuclear-related technology certification, but this certification takes time. First, the certification is then started. It may have been a few years since it has passed.
Ford class
On the other hand, our ship reactor also has no news. is still back to the news published on the China Shipbuilding official account some time ago, saying that it will conquer advanced ship-purpose nuclear reactor technology by 2027 and achieve a technological breakthrough in nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. What does this mean? It means that during the entire 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is the technical research period for ship-use nuclear reactors. The relevant technologies must be concluded at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan before they can be converted into engineering applications. You can't switch to engineering applications before you finish the topic. The technical uncontrollable degree is too high and the technical risks are too great. No one dares to do this. This problem is exactly the same as the previous problem, which means that we will not get a useful ship nuclear reactor before 2027. If you can't get a nuclear reactor, you won't have a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which is a very simple problem.
However, from the perspective of naval preparations for war, Ivan believes that our current war risks are increasing like never before. It's very simple. We said a few days ago that , led by the United States, NATO group, seems to have found a set of tricks that can be called the "Ukrainian model" through Ukrainian conflict , and . The several control points of this model are:
First, we found a modern country of medium size, rather than a pre-modern country like Middle East . As long as it is a modern country, then the administrative power is relatively sufficient; then, use ideology , politics Infiltration, economic control and other means, mobilization will be carried out corresponding mobilization for this country or region, including political, economic and military; on the basis of full mobilization, instigate this medium-sized country or region to deliberately provoke major powers, and constantly touch the strategic red line of major powers, especially the geopolitical security red line or national political bottom line, forcing major powers to enter hot conflict under an unfavorable strategic situation; after the outbreak of the conflict, we immediately take a multi-pronged approach and use various means such as political isolation, economic sanctions, military suppression, and ideological disruption to weaken this major power. The most favorable result is to force the disintegration of this great power or the overthrow of the regime. The most unfavorable result is that this great power has been blocked for a long time and it is difficult to pose a threat to the Western world again. The United States has used the Ukrainian conflict in Russia, and the overall effect is good. Next, the United States will inevitably hit us with the same set of punches. This is far from what we repeatedly emphasize that "the Taiwan issue and the Ukrainian issue do not have similarity." After all, when you say this, your thinking is still three words: "reasonable". Since they are planning to use the Ukrainian model on you, they are four words: "Cross the table". How can it make sense to others who are preparing to turn the table?
conventional power is more in line with the national conditions
Therefore, for us, there is currently no other way, there is only one way, seize every time to prepare for military struggle, especially the Navy. From the perspective of maritime battles, once something happens in the east, the role that the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier can play is to quickly advance to form an air defense interception line, blocking the strong enemy's sea-air integrated battle battle tactical forces to implement force delivery to the inside of the strait, especially to block the strong enemy's B-1B, B-21 and other models far away from the attack range.
In this case, the more aircraft carriers of the Chinese Navy, the better, and it is best to be an aircraft carrier like the "Fujian" ship that has the advanced tactical corps of the aviation corps. After all, the "Liaoning" ships and the "Shandong" ships cannot form their own systems to a large extent and can only operate under the cover of the shore-based early warning aircraft. The shore-based early warning aircraft cannot go too far when the conflict breaks out, and it is difficult to achieve full coverage of multiple threat axials, and the detection depth is even insufficient.
And relying solely on one "Fujian" ship can only be responsible for one battle direction at most, and it is difficult to take into account other battle directions. Moreover, the "strong enemy" B-1B and B-21 can completely attack from different battle directions. For us, we must deploy more "Fujian" ships to monitor multiple battle directions at the same time and form a dense air defense interception line and air determination zone.
At the same time, in this battle situation, our aircraft carrier does not need to leave the coast too far. Therefore, there is not much difference between nuclear-powered aircraft carriers or conventional-powered aircraft carriers. Even conventional-powered aircraft carriers can maintain a long-term preparation state due to their simple maintenance. They can maintain a higher proper rate when conflicts may break out at any time, which is far more useful than nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.
So, in the next few years, we should forget the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier first. The most critical question now is whether we can quickly expand the scale of our naval fleet and air force fleet with the help of existing mature equipment. In comparison, the advanced equipment can even be placed in the second place. It is better to have mature equipment that can form combat effectiveness tomorrow than to have the next generation of combat equipment that may not be able to form combat effectiveness in three years. The same is true for aircraft carriers. It is better to build another 003 than to wait for nuclear-powered aircraft carriers for the sake of military fans' face. After all, there should be really not much time left for us at the moment.
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