"Anti-Iranian Iron Triangle" VS "Shia Arc"
Gulf Arab 7 countries: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Cartel, Kuwait.
The Arc of Shia
[Great military news] After the establishment of diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel, the Middle East structure continues to evolve.
Among the 7 Gulf Arab countries (UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, Yemen), the UAE is the first to achieve normalization of relations with Israel. On August 17, U.S. President Trump’s son-in-law and senior White House adviser Kushner urged Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations.
Kushner pointed the finger at Iran. He said, “If more and more countries come together like Israel and the UAE, the more difficult it will be for Iran to divide and conquer these countries.”
The editor sorts out a few points:
1,
The Middle East was once a place where great powers must compete. At present, the United States is engaged in strategic contraction in the Middle East, Russia is strategically cautious, and Europe and China have no intention of seizing the strategic vacuum. For the first time, the Middle East has become a place where major powers are deterred.
As a result, the big powers outside the region were discouraged, and the big powers in the region (Iran, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia) began to vigorously stretch their hands and feet, and the division and combination of state relations in the region accelerated.
2,
Although the United States contracted in the Middle East, it was mainly due to a major loss of vitality in several wars and the need to concentrate its efforts against the eastern powers. However, the United States is still afraid of the "Shia Arc" that Iran is trying to create.
In recent years, Iran’s Shiite influence in the region has greatly increased. Iran is jokingly described as controlling Tehran (the capital of Iran), Damascus (the capital of Syria), Beirut (the first time in Lebanon), and Sana’a (Yemen). ), the five capitals of Baghdad (Iraq);
3,
In these years, some Arab countries have been in civil wars and some have been in political turmoil. Saudi Arabia has also been fighting internally with Qatar, and the regional influence has declined significantly. Crucially, the shale gas revolution allowed the United States to achieve energy independence and become a major exporter of oil and gas. The strategic position of Arab “big oil players” in the eyes of the United States has fallen sharply. With the world economic downturn and the decline in oil demand, oil prices have plummeted. This has led to financial difficulties in Arab oil-producing countries. The drawbacks of the single economic structure of long-term dependence on oil have been highlighted. The unemployment rate, especially the youth unemployment rate, remains high, and the society is facing turmoil, making it difficult for these countries to have the energy to expand their external influence.
Among the three non-Arab countries, in addition to the above-mentioned Iran, Turkey has troops stationed in Syria, Iraq, Qatar, and Libya, Israel stomped its feet, and Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon all felt "tremor." The influence of powers in these regions continues to rise.
In 2019, Saudi Arabia’s important oil facilities were severely attacked, but the United States did not resort to military retaliation. The Gulf countries realize that they must try to earn a living by themselves. Now the normalization of relations between the UAE and Israel is a new attempt to seek security.
4、
From the map, the UAE is very close to Iran, separated by a narrow Strait of Hormitz. Some Middle Eastern scholars believe that if Iran considers the agreement to normalize the relationship between the UAE and Israel Threatening the security of Iran and the presence of Israeli forces in the UAE, Iran will unite with the Houthis in Yemen and cause a "painful blow" to the UAE.
Next, if Saudi Arabia establishes diplomatic relations with Israel, then, with Saudi Arabia’s influence in Arab countries, it will lead more Gulf Arab countries and even Islamic countries in other regions to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. As a result, the political structure of the Middle East will undergo profound changes, and the split will become more apparent. Iran's strategic space will be squeezed, and turbulence may occur in the Middle East.
Because of geopolitical and religious reasons, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been vying for the dominance of the Islamic world in the Middle East, while the UAE is Saudi Arabia’s closest ally, and Iran is Israel’s mortal enemy. The establishment of diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel means that theThe “anti-Iranian iron triangle” with the United Arab Emirates at the core will be more stable, and will cooperate with the “Shi’ite Crescent” (ie the media) headed by Iran, the Syrian government and Lebanon’s Hezbollah (plus Iraq’s Shi’ite forces). The often-speaking "Arc of Shia") began a fierce contest between the tip of the needle and the wheat.
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