The People's Liberation Army is now preparing. How long will it take to completely capture Taiwan Island?
Without considering the casualties and the US military, a few missiles can be achieved in the past few minutes.
But attacking Taiwan is not a game. The People's Liberation Army's strategy is to strike point-to-point with precision and try to avoid causing harm to innocent people.
What's more, the Taiwan issue has now evolved into a complex Sino-US issue.
一
The situation is complex
How long will it take to unify Taiwan? Two major factors need to be considered
If you want to know how long it will take for the People's Liberation Army to completely capture Taiwan, you need to consider the following factors:
1.What is the combat power of Taiwan's military
2.What kind of assistance does the US military provide
First Point, what is the combat strength of Taiwan’s military now?
According to incomplete statistics, the Taiwan Air Force now has about 290 fighter aircraft , and is only 290, already ranking 8th in the global rankings.
There are 115 Taiwan military rocket launchers in total.
4 submarines , 4 destroyers ...
Taiwan's military expenditure is about 10.5 billion U.S. dollars every year.
Let’s take a look at these data from mainland China.
As of now, mainland China has a total of about 1,230 fighter jets, more than four times that of the Taiwan military; it has about 2,650 rocket launchers, a full 23 times that of the Taiwan military; it has 2 aircraft carriers (one more is about to enter service), 74 With 36 submarines and 36 destroyers, , in terms of naval strength, mainland China has a crushing advantage.
At the same time, China's annual military expenditure is about 238 billion US dollars, which is more than 20 times that of Taiwan. The development of mainland's military strength is more reliable than that of Taiwan.
But what is outrageous is not the current data on paper. What is outrageous is that Taiwan has no plans to develop military power at all.
Where did Taiwan’s weapons and equipment come from?
They basically buy their weapons, and buys the most from the United States. On the one hand, Taiwan does not have the conditions to develop military equipment. Buying American weapons can enhance its military strength in disguise. On the other hand, it can also express its loyalty to the United States. The United States establishes a cooperative relationship of interests and embraces the United States.
Developing military strength in this way is far more effective than building an industrial base bit by bit.
So, the DPP took the Taiwanese people’s money and gave it to the United States with both hands.
This does give Taiwan a certain self-defense capability, but this kind of self-defense capability obtained by buying weapons from other countries is basically negligible in the eyes of the People's Liberation Army of China. What's even worse is that this development model has turned Taiwan's already weak military strength into a one-time deal.
does not have its own industrial system and has been relying on food storage. How long can it survive? In the end, still has to rely on US aid.
But it is different in mainland China. Mainland China has been forced to establish a complete industrial system. If they don't sell it to us, we can only develop our own technology and localize all weapons and equipment.
As a result, China's weapons and equipment are springing up like mushrooms after a rain, and they will only develop faster and faster.
refers to the previous world factory - the United States, history has already told us the answer.
Before Japan declared war on the United States in 1941, it was probably unimaginable that the United States would achieve a huge leap in the number of weapons and equipment in just a few years. At that time, even if the United States added its own escort aircraft carrier , there were only 7 ships in total, but Japan dispatched 6 aircraft carriers just for the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor.
At that time, the military strength of the two countries was basically insignificant.
During World War II, the United States built 155 aircraft carriers. However, neither the Japanese nor the world expected that it only took 4 years. By 1945, the United States had built 155 aircraft carriers.
Among them, there are 27 heavy-duty aircraft carriers. This number is enough to shock Japan.
This is the potential of the world’s factory.
And this situation is now happening in China. China has huge military potential.
Not only does the Taiwan military not have a strong industrial base to support it, but its military training is also not on the table. Just think about Taiwan's leaders observing the training of Taiwan's "elite troops" in the swimming pool. The training of the Taiwan military is beyond our imagination. of.
At this point, relying solely on the Taiwan military to compete with the Mainland People's Liberation Army, this combat power is completely negligible.
Taiwanese military amphibious warfare team is training in the swimming pool
Second point, the US military will provide assistance.
The US strategy towards Taiwan is gradually changing. From Trump to Biden, various U.S. documents on national strategic nature reflect that Taiwan is gradually becoming the core interest of the United States.
On the Taiwan issue, the United States continues to make trouble.
The worst outcome is that the Americans come to the Taiwan Strait in person, and the People's Liberation Army start a hot war in China's offshore areas, using American power to prevent the People's Liberation Army from landing in Taiwan.
Based on the previous two U.S. military appearances in the Taiwan Strait, it can be guessed that the U.S. military will most likely send the Seventh Fleet to the Taiwan Strait. From the perspective of predicting the enemy, it is also assumed that the U.S. will send the Third Fleet to also come. reinforce.
The US Seventh Fleet
But even if the US military uses the power of the military bases stationed in Japan and South Korea, wants to start a war with the People's Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait, it has basically no chance of winning.
As early as a few years ago, the People's Liberation Army has established an anti-access defense system. When fighting in China's offshore waters, the U.S. military not only faces a competition with the Chinese navy, but also faces the Chinese navy, air force, rocket force and army. The entire defense system, truth is within range.
The US military is clearly aware of this, so in recent years, the US military's arms sales policy to Taiwan has been gradually changing.
The U.S. military has long stopped selling backward weapons to Taiwan. The current U.S. military’s arms sales to Taiwan are mainly focused on selling weapons that can play a practical role in actual combat. The purpose of the U.S. military is to allow Taiwan to improve its own Defense capabilities, in the hope that the Taiwan military can independently compete with the People's Liberation Army without the help of the US military.
This is the purpose of the United States.
From the perspective of Taiwan's military combat power and the involvement of the US military, the United States subjectively will most likely not intervene in the Taiwan Strait war, but will try its best to help the Taiwan military behind the scenes. This help is mainly reflected in the updates and iterations of Taiwan's military weapons and equipment. superior.
Taiwan Strait War, mainly depends on the Taiwan military itself.
Therefore, some experts pointed out that it is necessary to attack Taiwan as early as possible. No one knows whether the Taiwan military will undergo a major change in a few years.
Although such a major change is still a one-time change, for the People's Liberation Army, once the Taiwan military's weapons and equipment undergo a major change, the People's Liberation Army will have more variables to attack Taiwan.
So we say, seize the window period in Taiwan.
What is window period ?
is the process of upgrading and iterating Taiwan's weapons and equipment. This process may last for several years. This stage is when the Taiwan military is at its weakest and has the worst weapons and equipment. It is also the best time for the People's Liberation Army to attack Taiwan.
二
14 hours login
Is now the best time to unify Taiwan?
How long will it take for the People's Liberation Army to attack Taiwan at this time? A well-known professor at the U.S. Air Force University once published a paper to elaborate on this issue. His point of view is: The People's Liberation Army is now attacking Taiwan, and it only takes 14 hours to capture Taiwan.
His argument is mainly supported by two arguments:
1. The Taiwan military is currently weak in combat power. If it wants to use the strength of the Taiwan military to compete with the People's Liberation Army, there is currently no way to resist. The People's Liberation Army can capture Taiwan within 14 hours.
2. The US military will not intervene in the Taiwan Strait war if the People's Liberation Army can complete the attack on Taiwan within 14 hours. Even if the US military wants to intervene subjectively, there is not enough time. The US military is not sure that it can intervene in the Taiwan Strait war and start a war with the People's Liberation Army in such a short period of time.
On the one hand, it is because the mainland of the United States is far away , and most of the military forces must be sent to intervene in the distant water, which cannot quench the thirst of the people nearby. On the other hand, it is because the United States must go through certain procedures when sending troops to fight. This application process is generally required. Two weeks.
Therefore, the United States has no chance to carry out rescue work in the Taiwan Strait War. The most sensible thing to do is to give up intervention in the Taiwan Strait War. There is no need to harm the peace with mainland China for the sake of Taiwan.
What the American professor said is very practical, but achieving unification in less than 14 hours is only something that can be accomplished in recent years.
When the window period for the Taiwan military has passed, this time is likely to be extended. This is not to boost the enemy's morale and destroy our own prestige, but it is a fact. We cannot be blindly confident and must make all preparations when it comes to Taiwan issues.
The United States is currently helping the Taiwan military improve its combat capabilities. This is mainly reflected in two aspects. On the one hand, it is to replenish troops, and on the other hand, it is to activate reserve forces. At the same time, Taiwan will spend more of its budget to purchase weapons and equipment from the US military.
Therefore, we advocate reunification of Taiwan and cannot delay . If we continue to delay, until the United States completely changes Taiwan, the Taiwan military will have sufficient manpower and increased combat power. At that time, will the Taiwan military easily bow to us?
Our strategy has never been to fight desperately against the Taiwan military. What we want is to unify Taiwan at the minimum cost and retain Taiwan's maximum value. can actually beat Taiwan at that time, but the cost at that time was higher, and we may have more things to deal with in the follow-up.
At the same time, the United States is very likely to impose sanctions on China and then unite with other countries to suppress China. It can only be said that when the Taiwan military completes a comprehensive upgrade, there will only be more variables for our unification.
Unification of Taiwan is imminent.
According to relevant information, the Beijing-Taiwan high-speed railway will be opened in 2035. There are currently three routes planned. One route is from Beijing to Fuzhou, Fuzhou to Pingtan , and then from the undersea tunnel in Pingtan to Hsinchu, Taiwan. .
The second route is from Beijing to Putian , and then from the undersea tunnel in Putian to Miaoli in Taiwan.
The third is from Beijing to Xiamen , from the Xiamen Cross-sea Bridge to Kinmen, from the undersea tunnel to Penghu, and then from the undersea tunnel to Chiayi, Taiwan.
Judging from the three routes, the first route is most likely to be chosen. But no matter what, it must go through the undersea tunnel. Such a project is relatively difficult. According to professional estimates, the construction period will take at least 10 years.
The main basis for the establishment of the Beijing-Taiwan high-speed railway is the reunification of Taiwan. Only on the basis of Taiwan's reunification can the interconnection between Beijing and Taiwan be realized.
In other words, at least before 2025, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait must achieve reunification. This may be the basis for many experts’ assessment that cross-strait reunification will be achieved before 2025.
But to be honest, this is all our ideal idea.
三
Insufficient preparation
Unification with Taiwan may miss the opportunity
Mainland China also has its own difficulties. It is not the time to take action yet, or in other words, we ourselves are not ready yet. According to the current situation, we may miss this Taiwan's military's window period.
The reason why I say this is because of the following two considerations:
1. China is in the critical period of industrial upgrading, and its energy is limited, so it is impossible to follow up on two things at the same time in a short period of time.
2. The new financial report shows that the five southeastern provinces contribute nearly half of the country’s fiscal revenue. Once they really decide to close the country, the economy of the five southeastern provinces will inevitably be affected. Judging from the current economic situation, there is a high probability that it will not Will do it.
The situation of unifying Taiwan is far from as optimistic as we imagined. Regarding the military unification of Taiwan, it is by no means as simple as we imagined. This is not a pure competition of military power.
Even if Taiwan can be invaded within 14 hours now, there is a high probability that the mainland will not take action. To put it bluntly, we are not ready yet. When the Taiwan military really implements weapons replacement and troop upgrades, we will not be ready by then. Costs can only be minimized under the current circumstances to protect Taiwan's maximum value.
Therefore, the most cost-effective approach is to start with military reunification and end with peaceful reunification. A few hours ago, the main military base of the Taiwan Army was destroyed and the Taiwan authorities were forced to the negotiating table. The next step is justifiable peaceful reunification.
On the one hand, this can preserve the maximum utilization value of Taiwan, and on the other hand, it can also eliminate a series of subsequent interference from the United States. Various joint sanctions by the United States are based on the premise that Taiwan has suffered heavy casualties or that there is a hot war between the two sides. Without this premise, what reason does the United States have to speak out internationally to sanction China?
Forcing Taiwan's military to the negotiating table when they are at their weakest is the most cost-effective method, but it is also the most difficult to achieve.
The key to breaking the situation is to develop the mainland economy.
Developing the mainland's economy as quickly as possible and realizing rapid industrial upgrading have been the focus of mainland China's development in recent years. What we compete with Taiwan and the United States is speed. Only if we develop fast enough and take action before the United States completely changes Taiwan, can we reduce the cost of unifying Taiwan as much as possible.
