Can the Uzbek army still muster millions of armed forces? This may be the most "explosive" news released by Ukraine in recent times. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov claimed in an interview with the British " Times " that Ukraine is assembling a combat force of more than one million people equipped with Western weapons and will follow Zelian's instructions. Ski's order to counterattack the southern territory currently controlled by Russia.
▲ "The Times" related report
This conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted nearly five months. Although the Ukrainian army has not completely lost, judging from the series of results announced by the Russian army, the Ukrainian army can still gather nearly a hundred soldiers. Wan's armed strength is still somewhat unbelievable. Behind this kind of vow and full confidence, it highlights Ukraine's extreme concern about the situation, and this statement is probably just to give Western countries a so-called "reassurance pill."
1. There are constant worries behind the counterattack.
- The war situation is becoming increasingly unfavorable to Ukraine.
Although there is a question mark as to whether Ukraine can still mobilize one million armed forces, one thing is certain so far, that is, the Russian army will be in the near future. After changing the previous tactics of opening and closing and concentrating its forces in certain key areas, it has achieved good results, especially 's control of the eastern region of Ukraine, which has caused Ukraine to lose an important "chip" in negotiations with Russia. .
▲Current situation in the Beidun area
According to news confirmed by Kiev at the end of June, Severodonetsk city has been completely controlled by the Russian army under the fierce attack of the Russian army. The Russian army is currently working hard to restore order in the city. A new head of the region was also appointed. Regarding the capture of Beidun, Western media once described it as "the biggest victory since May".
Objectively speaking, taking Beidun on the one hand improved the morale of the Russian army. After all, the continuous fighting for nearly 5 months, the increasing losses and the long-term offensive situation made the morale of the Russian army continue to be low. On the other hand, Beidun was previously an important defensive position for the Ukrainian army. For this reason, relatively complete fortifications were set up in the area and a large number of elite Ukrainian troops were concentrated. With Beidun captured, the losses of the Ukrainian army in this area can be expected. It is conceivable that, coupled with the destruction of the defensive positions, does not rule out that the Russian army will use this to drive straight into the center of Ukraine in the future, which will make Ukraine's defense more passive.
At the same time, one thing should not be ignored. With the control of Beidun, the Russian army's control of the Udong region has changed from point to point. The strategic rear has been further consolidated , which will pave the way for the Russian army's next move, whether it is advancement. It is quite beneficial for defense, and this move also reduces the possibility of the Ukrainian army launching an attack on the Russian mainland to a certain extent.
▲Russia-Ukraine latest battle report
This is just a Beidun region. Judging from the latest battle report released by the Russian Ministry of Defense , the Russian army is trying to control the E40 highway, to achieve the three strategic towns in Ukraine—— Full blockade of in Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Kharkov . The Uzbek army is gradually depleted of its effective strength through a war of attrition and positional warfare. Some Western experts believe that this kind of containment forces the Uzbek army to deploy limited troops to strengthen the defense of the above-mentioned areas, but this undoubtedly limits the Uzbek army's combat capabilities. further dispersion.
Judging from the current war situation, although the area controlled by the Russian army is not large, due to the steady strategy and tactics and the exhaustion of the elite Ukrainian army, the war situation has become increasingly unfavorable to Ukraine. At this time, if Zelensky does not order Ukraine The army launched a desperate counterattack, leaving really not much room for him to perform. According to Ukrainian media reports, the first batch of foreign ships for exporting grain have recently arrived at the Ukrainian port via the Danube River, marking the actual operation stage of Ukrainian grain exports. Such hasty exports cannot help but make people suspect that Ukraine has felt that its maritime exports are about to be lost. For this reason, it must seize the last glimmer of hope and make some "contributions" to the West.
2. Divisions are gradually emerging within the West.
▲ In recent times, there has been only one topic at the EU summit - sanctions against Russia
The progress of the Ukrainian army has been unfavorable, and it has also aggravated the already existing differences within the West. At this stage, the United States and the United Kingdom still stand firmly behind Ukraine, hoping that the conflict will continue, and provide comprehensive support to Ukraine through a variety of means, including but not limited to diplomatic, economic, and military fields. However, for other major European countries, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, they have wavered on the issue of support for Ukraine.
First of all, it must be admitted that in this contest, Russia and Ukraine are just the appearance. The essence behind it is the confrontation between the entire West and Russia . In this process, Europe has become the main battlefield, and European countries have been forced to get involved. to this confrontation. However, confrontation requires a price. At the repeated request of the United States, military assistance provided by Germany, France, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland has been continuously shipped to Ukraine, and the aid equipment has become more and more advanced and the scale has increased. Come bigger. This move will not cause much problems in the short term, but in the long run, the equipment inventories of European countries will gradually bottom out . If they continue to persist, it is very likely to endanger the country's strategic security. In addition, the Ukrainian army can easily "give up" military aid equipment (some sources say There are also situations where the Ukrainian army actively resells them at low prices), and the dissatisfaction of European countries began to intensify.
At the same time, don’t forget that under pressure from the United States, the EU has begun to impose a series of sanctions on Russia since the early days of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As the intensity of sanctions has increased, the EU has focused its sanctions on energy. Although this is the lifeblood of Russia's economy, Russian energy, especially natural gas, is also crucial to most European countries. As a result, while the EU imposed sanctions on Russia, European countries also suffered heavy losses. Domestic prices have been rising. At this time, they must also spend high prices to purchase overseas energy. It is obvious that they are dumb and eating coptis.
▲ "Nord Stream" natural gas transmission volume has dropped significantly
This dumb loss can be tolerated in the short term, but no one can bear it in the long run. This has also led to some European countries' recent wavering on the issue of sanctions against Russia. According to TASS news agency, Germany's Siemens said that Canada has decided to return the "Nord Stream-1" natural gas pipeline components previously sent for repair to Germany, which will then be transferred to Russia. The reason why Germany did this was entirely because Russia had previously stated that as long as the parts could be returned, Russia would increase its natural gas supply to Europe. It can be seen that in the face of real interests, the so-called pressure and the so-called alliance must give way.
Europe has been shaken internally. Now that the war in Ukraine is not progressing smoothly and a large amount of military aid has been wasted, it is doubtful whether Western countries will remain united in the future and continue to provide all-round assistance to Ukraine. And once it loses Western aid, how long can Ukraine survive? Zelenskiy knew this well, and for this reason there was a scene of "millions of Ukrainian troops counterattacking".
2. Can the counterattack really be realized as planned?
As for whether the counterattack can be realized, we might as well look at the results of the Ukrainian army first. Ukrainian media revealed that after the Ukrainian Defense Minister released news of the counterattack, the Ukrainian army had recaptured the village of Ivanivka in the southern Kherson Oblast.. Nowadays, even if a village is captured, the Ukrainian media will show it off with great fanfare. It can only be said that the Ukrainian army really has no tangible results. And this may be just a small problem in Ukraine's counterattack, and two more fatal problems are still waiting for Ukraine.
▲The Ukrainian army uses M777 howitzer
First of all, is the Ukrainian army’s counterattack a counterattack or a dead end in vain? Although at this stage, Western countries are beginning to focus on providing heavy equipment to Ukraine, such as the M777 howitzer and M-142 high-mobility rocket launcher system provided by the United States, the 155 mm artillery , multiple rocket launcher and drones provided by the United Kingdom. Etc., but from a quantitative perspective, these equipment are completely useless to completely reverse the situation in the Russia-Ukraine war.Like the M-142, the United States has only provided a total of 8 sets, and the amount of ammunition is still extremely limited. This also means that although the Ukrainian army has many types of equipment, it is still unable to fully compete with the Russian army.
Heavy firepower is insufficient. Even if the Ukrainian army gathers millions of weapons, it will be difficult to achieve good results, and the losses will definitely exceed expectations. From a certain perspective, this move by the Ukrainian side is tantamount to letting the frontline soldiers die in vain. Moreover, judging from the information previously released by Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, The Ukrainian army’s Soviet-era inventory has been depleted, and both weapons and ammunition have bottomed out. The current situation will greatly affect the Ukrainian army's subsequent counterattack.
▲The Russian army has launched indiscriminate bombings
Moreover, don’t forget that the Russian army has changed its strategies and tactics in recent times. In addition to shrinking its troops and focusing on attacks as mentioned above, it has also regained its "cannon doctrine" and exerted its The advantage of heavy equipment and firepower prevents close combat . At this time, the Ukrainian army's numerical advantage is not an advantage from a certain perspective, but has become a liability and has become a key target of the Russian army. There is neither a way to parry nor a solution to this kind of attack on Ukraine. It is really helpless. Now, after racking their brains, the use of human sea tactics has become the only life-saving straw for the Ukrainian army. But is this really useful?
Secondly, although the Ukrainian Minister of Defense claimed to have summoned one million armed forces, can Ukraine really gather so many armed forces now? the answer is negative. Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a think tank estimated that the total number of combat troops of the Ukrainian armed forces was around 200,000, with 110,000 paramilitary personnel and about 900,000 reserve forces. In addition, the Ukrainian government has been recruiting Ukrainian people who have reached service age to join the army. Therefore, in theory, It’s not difficult to get together 1 million.
Don’t forget that this conflict has lasted for almost five months. During the long-term exchange of fire, the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed has increased sharply. At the same time, the number of surrenders and deserters has also increased. At this time, can Ukraine still muster 1 million armed forces? Power is questionable. Take ten thousand steps back, and the people are gathered together, but the equipment is insufficient and the combat effectiveness of the personnel is low. The counterattack will undoubtedly end in failure..
▲Russia has relaxed restrictions on Ukrainian citizens entering Russia
According to Russian official news, Russian President Putin has signed a presidential decree stipulating that all residents of Ukraine can obtain Russian citizenship through simplified procedures . This move is likely to trigger a wave of Ukrainian people entering Russia. Faced with a large-scale loss of citizens, it will be even more difficult for Ukraine to continue to persevere. From this point of view, returning to the negotiating table as soon as possible is the only way to resolve this conflict. Effective and reliable solution.
