China Southern Airlines , Air China , and China China Eastern Airlines three major airlines announced that they plan to purchase a total of 292 Airbus A320NEO passenger aircraft, with a total price of approximately 240 billion yuan, and will be delivered in batches from 2023 to 2027.
It is understood that in this aircraft purchase contract, Airbus gave Chinese airlines a greater discount, and the actual transaction price will be lower than the basic price . Even so, this transaction is still the largest in the history of the three major airlines. , the order with the highest amount seems to be about to take off!
Why did the three major airlines choose Airbus to sign the super contract at this point in time? Why is the purchasing object A320NEO? What signal is released? What are and Boeing doing?
First of all, since is a business, it is naturally profitable . Due to the spread of the epidemic, global transport capacity is excess, the aircraft sales market continues to be sluggish, and the situation in Eastern Europe has led to a decline in the euro exchange rate . If you conduct large-scale group purchases at this time, you will naturally get larger discounts.
Data shows that the three major airlines’ total net losses last year exceeded 40 billion yuan, and they also lost more than 20 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year. With international crude oil prices soaring, the financial situation of airlines should not be too optimistic, but they still made a big deal. This shows that thanks to discounts and installment transactions, heavy purchases of aircraft will not have a major impact on the operations of airlines. It is indeed a bargain for us, and it also releases a positive signal of accelerating the recovery of the domestic aviation tourism industry.
Just a week ago, Airbus selected Suzhou as its R&D center and signed an framework agreement online with Suzhou Industrial Park , which will start operations early next year.
Apparently Airbus believes that China is still the most promising aviation market in the world. If it can help China establish a complete local supply chain, it can eliminate the impact of external factors.
In fact, Airbus began to put its production lines into China as early as more than ten years ago, which has narrowed the relationship with China politically. Cooperation in the aviation industry has also been a traditional project of China-Europe exchanges, and has developed steadily and long-term to this day. Not surprising at all.
Back to the transaction itself, A320NEO is the latest generation single-aisle narrow-body aircraft model of Airbus. It is an improved version of A320, with optimized cabin. The fuel efficiency of single-seat has been improved by 20% with . The fuel economy of is better than many old domestic models. Much better .
narrow-body aircraft are the main passenger aircraft for domestic routes and short- and medium-range international routes. They account for nearly 80% of civil aviation. There is a complete necessity for batch replacement and upgrade. The three major airlines also use this to expand their capacity and improve their market competitiveness.
Models of the same level as the A320NEO include Boeing's 737MAX and Commercial Aircraft C919. Among them, the 737MAX8 has been grounded by many countries due to consecutive air crashes. The Civil Aviation Administration of my country has not yet fully approved the return of the 737MAX.
Commercial Aircraft C919 is a model independently developed and produced by my country. Some people may ask, will the large-scale purchase of foreign aircraft have an impact on domestically produced aircraft?
Boeing research results show that China's civil aviation will need 8,700 aircraft in the next 20 years. The aviation market is huge, and just purchasing 292 aircraft in batches obviously cannot meet the demand . In fact, C919 has already received a lot of orders and will not be greatly affected by this transaction.
Even China and Russia are considering joint ventures to develop new models to completely get rid of dependence on Western countries for components. Whether it is self-research or cooperation, in the future shipping market , domestic models are a good choice.
Regarding this transaction, Boeing, which was excluded, was naturally very sour, and angrily claimed that " geopolitical differences continue to restrict the export of U.S. aircraft, and it is disappointed with the procurement projects of China's three major aviation companies."
The war is As politics continues, so does economic behavior. It is hard not to think of such a large-scale purchase as the recent political atmosphere.
At the just-concluded G7 summit and NATO summit, the United States not only planned to invest hundreds of billions in developing infrastructure in developing countries to compete with the Belt and Road Initiative, but also regarded China and Russia as challenges and threats. It is foreseeable that political, economic and even military struggles between China and the United States will be the main theme in the future.
In the political environment of confrontation between China and the United States, products like aircraft that are expensive to build, have a long service life, and require stable maintenance services require a long-term and stable trading partner, and the United States obviously cannot play such a role, So whether it is Cooperating with Boeing is not a wise choice from safety or political considerations..
The reason why Chinese airlines do not cooperate with Boeing is entirely due to the United States’ hostile policy towards China. Therefore, not only aircraft, but also any bulk trade or long-term investment with the United States will face great political risks.
As globalization deepens, China's economy is taking off. A considerable part of the cake of world economic growth has been taken away by China. The Chinese market is the most favored by capital, so Europe must be the enemy of capital of the United States. Provoking a conflict between Russia and Ukraine is A powerful means of restricting European capital.
Although the United States tries its best to sow discord between China and Europe and tries every means to discredit China at various meetings, European countries actually see clearly that there is no conflict of interest between China and Europe. Win-win cooperation is more in line with national interests than confrontation.
For the EU that increasingly wants to get rid of the influence of the United States, becoming a business partner with China is completely subjective and positive. It is not only an economic behavior, but also a means to compete with the United States politically.
For China, choosing Airbus is obviously a business decision. Although there are certain political considerations, it is by no means the starting point. Moreover, many of the suppliers of A320NEO’s core systems and components are from the United States, and the United States can still get a share of the pie. To say that it is targeting the United States is an exaggeration.
Boeing’s criticism of China for restricting the export of U.S. aircraft due to geopolitical differences is obviously without purpose. What it should be complaining about is why the United States adopts a hostile policy against China and why it cannot properly resolve the safety performance issues of the 737 MAX. No matter which aircraft China chooses, it should follow the rules of market economy , rather than determined by political factors.
In fact, before the air crash and the Sino-US trade war, China and Boeing had a good cooperative relationship. Between 2012 and 2020, Boeing's revenue in China accounted for 10.74% of total revenue, once becoming the largest contributor to overseas revenue in the United States.
China Aviation Materials purchased 300 Boeing aircraft, mainly the 737 series, in bulk in 2017. The scale and amount were similar to this transaction, which shows that China does not treat American companies differently.
Whose plane caused the air crash? Who started the trade war? Therefore, Boeing's loss of orders from China is entirely a problem between itself and the US government. The argument of blaming China is completely untenable .
The reason why Boeing believes that China-EU trade is a small political maneuver is actually a villain's attitude towards a gentleman. It reflects from the side how common and serious the US government's use of administrative means to interfere with economic and trade behavior is.
The U.S. government has been accustomed to exercising long-arm jurisdiction over foreign companies through domestic laws for many years. It can be said that it is unscrupulous to provide a protective umbrella for state-owned enterprises and suppress foreign companies. Its hegemonic thinking and ambitions have long been deeply ingrained.
Ever since the Meng Wanzhou incident, the United States has been wielding the big stick of sanctions against China, frequently passing trade restriction laws to sanction Chinese companies. Faced with such a rogue country, who would dare to conduct large-scale trade with it?
As the United States presses harder and harder against China in the Asia-Pacific region, the relationship between the two countries cannot get back on track. It is only a matter of time before Boeing Company completely loses the Chinese market. If it cannot face up to its technical shortcomings and does not actively promote the normalization of Sino-US relations, it will be difficult for Boeing to return to China..
As we said above, economic behavior is also a continuation of politics. On the premise of following the laws of the market, we can also interpret some political signals.
The deal between Chinese airlines and Airbus may be just an introduction, a harbinger of the restoration of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Although the EU has temporarily frozen the adoption of the agreement, it is in the overall interest of European countries and in line with the EU's general direction of strategic independence. It is an indisputable fact that cooperation between the East and the West can lead to win-win results, and there is no way out for confrontation.
The United States provokes confrontation between China and the West out of its ambition to maintain its strategic hegemony. If the EU wants to expand its influence in international affairs, it will inevitably not follow the United States. Although it is still mired in the war in eastern Ukraine, their relationship with the United States and Britain The differences in the flow are also becoming increasingly obvious, and sooner or later the right choice will be made. We might as well let the bullets fly for a while longer and let the good things happen a little longer.
The United States has just led two summits full of hostility towards China. China has used a business deal to tell the world that anti-China is harmful to others and not self-interested. As long as you target China, you will lose China's business. Capital is all about profit. Yes, no businessman will have trouble with money because of politics.
Under the trend of global economic recession, China's economic growth has bucked the trend, which is not only the future of Europe, but also the future of the world. Cooperating and complementing China is the best way to get out of the economic recession. And if we continue to follow the United States in engaging in confrontation, creating divisions and provoking war, the consequences are self-evident.
Both China and the EU have made money from this deal. The United States will definitely not be reconciled and will start to fight back immediately. I hope that the EU can weigh the pros and cons in the next game and make the choice that best suits its own interests. It will pursue an independent path in the EU. Go one step further instead of dancing with the beauty, otherwise you will only fall into the trap of feathers.
In addition, many people question why there is not even a domestic large aircraft C919 in the 240 billion order?
In fact, after the successful first flight test of C919, the order volume is already full. If the order volume is increased, it will be impossible to deliver in the short term. The replacement demand of the three major airlines is very urgent. If you queue up for C919 , not only will you have to wait for a long time, but you will also miss the window period for Airbus discounts.
The currently verifiable order data shows that the actual purchase quantity of C919 can be determined to have reached 856 aircraft. In addition, there are rumors that Hainan Airlines has placed an order to purchase 200 C919 passenger aircraft , which has not been confirmed. Assuming that the purchase order for 200 C919s is confirmed, this means that the total confirmed purchase volume of C919s will reach an astonishing number of 1,056. , a civil aviation aircraft that has not yet been delivered, has already had so many orders. This is very amazing .
According to Jiang Liping, chief engineer of C919 manufacturing, the annual output of C919 can reach 100 aircraft, which also means that it will take 10 years to complete the order of 1,056 aircraft. This is something that the three major airlines cannot afford to wait for their urgent replacement requirements. And in the context that the C919 has not yet obtained the airworthiness certificate , placing a huge order for the C919 is not a rational choice.
And after the first flight of C919, China Eastern Airlines said it would add new aircraft to the fleet. In March 2021, the airline signed an order with COMAC and purchased 5 C919 aircraft, becoming the first customer of C919. This shows that domestic aviation giants recognize and support the C919. On May 14, 2022, the first flight test of the first C919 large aircraft to be delivered to China Eastern Airlines was successfully completed.
The current C919 has not yet entered COMAC, and it will take a long time before large-scale mass production and application .
After the first flight, the domestically produced C919 began to enter the airworthiness certification stage. Only by obtaining the airworthiness certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Co., Ltd. 's C919 can be put into domestic commercial operations. Only by obtaining the airworthiness certificate from European Airlines Only with airworthiness certification from the National Safety Administration and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration can the C919 enter the international market.
C919 has previously passed the approval of the China Civil Aviation Airworthiness Certification Center and obtained the domestic airworthiness certificate.
At present, the key threshold for C919 to truly enter the international market is to obtain airworthiness certification from EASA and FAA. Obtaining these two certifications is crucial for the C919's future overseas market development. The current situation is that the C919 has applied for both airworthiness certifications at the same time.
In fact, the large order placed at Airbus at this time also indicates that at least until the cycle of 2027, even if our domestic C919 obtains the airworthiness certificate, the production capacity will still be a flaw. In the early stage, we may not be able to absorb these domestic demands. For orders, it is at most the third choice after Airbus and Boeing.
Although the C919, which we have developed for more than ten years, carries the expectations of many people, one reality that must be faced is that the airworthiness certificate is indeed an insurmountable obstacle for the C919 in a short time. Even if it is our own aircraft, for For the three major airlines pursuing efficiency, it is impossible to purchase a large number of aircraft models that can only be operated domestically.
At the end of the article, Rong Ping has something to say
There are rumors that Airbus’s large order was originally prepared for Boeing. It is one of the matters finalized at the previous high-level meeting between China and the United States, that is, the United States will cancel the increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, and China will The purchase of Boeing passenger aircraft is one of the conditions for business negotiations. And this time limit is July 1st.
However, due to the public pressure caused by Boeing's two serious air crashes, as well as the U.S. government's hesitation on the issue of lifting tariffs, coupled with the United States' recent use of NATO to confront China, it has caused serious damage to Sino-U.S. relations. was the reason why China's huge order fell to Airbus. Of course, this was also because Airbus stepped in and offered preferential prices. In short, the combined effect of multiple factors contributed to the historical large order of the three major airlines.
It can be seen that this 240 billion Airbus order is not purely an economic act, but also contains political elements of the game between great powers. Airbus and Boeing are sworn enemies, and the European Union and the United States behind them will also "fight" because of this big order. After all, behind the economic interests is politics. China's move is equivalent to nailing a wedge between the United States and Europe. A wedge . Boeing in the United States will be very upset because of the loss of a large order, and it will also be a heavy blow to the politicians behind it. Airbus in Europe has received such a large order, and will definitely work hard to keep this large order. The two major aircraft manufacturers Behind the corporate game is obviously the rift between the interests of the United States and Europe.
As for our domestically produced large aircraft C919, there is actually no shortage of orders. This is already a very big achievement for civil aviation airliners that have not yet been put into commercial flight. , and we still need a long time to digest these orders and use this time. To obtain an international airworthiness certificate, therefore, while we have high hopes for our domestically produced large aircraft, we should also give it a longer time to grow, and we must not act too hastily!
