Russia-Ukraine latest June 27th: Ukraine sticks to Donbass , Russia defaults on sovereign debt
Original Xiaolijun Jiheiye 2022-06-27 22:34
Original title: Russia-Ukraine latest June 27th: Ukraine holds on to Donbass, but Russia has strategically failed
Morning fog / Repost
Dear readers and friends, today is June 27, and we continue to study and judge the war situation between Russia and Ukraine.
Today’s breaking news is: In order to protect Ukraine’s airspace, the United States plans to announce as early as this week that it will provide NASAMS air defense systems to Ukraine. NASAMS is an advanced surface-to-air missile defense system used by the United States to protect the airspace of the capital Washington. It is reported that the range of this missile can reach 170 kilometers.
President Joe Biden is currently in Germany meeting with G7 leaders for a summit focused on Ukraine, where he recently announced that the United States will provide Ukraine with "more advanced rocket systems and ammunition". Other military aid, including additional artillery shells and counter-battery radar, may also be announced this week in response to requests from Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian officials requested a missile defense system , known as the NASAMS system, because the weapons can hit targets more than 100 miles away, a source said. After this wish is fulfilled, the Russian aerospace force should disappear from the skies of Ukraine. And a large proportion of the cruise missiles that wreaked havoc over Kiev and other Ukrainian cities should also be shot down.
The United States has been steadily announcing additional security assistance to Ukraine. Last week, the Biden administration announced an additional $450 million in military aid to Ukraine, allowing it to acquire four more multiple launch rocket systems and artillery ammunition for other systems. Earlier this month, the Biden administration said it would provide an additional $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including shipments of additional howitzers, ammunition and coastal defense systems.
There is no big progress in the battle today: Beidun has just changed hands, the Ukrainian army is unable to counterattack, and the Russian army cannot continuously attack Lichansk. Both sides are gearing up and waiting for the next battle.
Ijumu There is a bright spot on the front line, which is the initial trial of Seamasters that we talked about yesterday, which took over two high-level Russian military command posts. Because the power of rockets and rockets was so great, many light vehicles parked outside the command post were burned. On the one hand, this shows that the attack distance is actually not far, and it certainly does not reach the maximum range of 70 kilometers-because a large amount of rocket fuel has not been used up, the explosion of the warhead ignited the fuel, so the building was burned black;
another This aspect shows that Haimas is indeed very accurate. In the general army, heavy multiple rocket launchers are used to cover firepower, carry out area-based killings, effectively curb the enemy's concentration before attacking, or attack large local logistics departments and transportation hubs. However, Ukrainian artillery is very smart, using Himars' long-range The two attributes of precision and precision were first used to "decapitate" senior Russian commanders to let the leaders go first. Even if the Russian army detects the location of the rocket attack, it suffers from the lack of artillery with sufficient range. The air and space forces are afraid of the "Stinger" and S-300 air defense systems of the Ukrainian army on the ground, so they can only be passively beaten and unable to launch an effective counterattack.
Now that Haimas has become a blockbuster, it will definitely continue its mobile operations on the Izyum-Slavyansk front line, looking for opportunities to take out high-value targets of the Russian army. Therefore, whether the Russian army is attacking or gathering, it must be extremely careful, lest the intelligence is leaked and it will be hit by a "rain of fire". From this, Haimas may be able to bring about some changes in the battle situation in front of Ijumu that are beneficial to the Ukrainian army.
Although there are only 4 Haimas systems currently in operation, Donbas is actually a small place. It is only 168 kilometers from the central square of Kharkiv to the center of Kramatorsk, which is equivalent to the distance from Shanghai to China. Hometown Changzhou , so the Haimas M31 satellite-guided rocket with a range of 70 kilometers can actually cover a considerable battlefield area, making the Russian troops fighting in this area trembling on both the front and the rear.
On the southern line of Kherson, although the Ukrainian army is still working hard to attack and has achieved some small victories, the Russian army, which has dug three lines of defense and has heavy artillery behind it and the T-62 buried until only the turret is left, At this point, the Ukrainian army cannot defeat the other side in one go, so the southern front mainly focuses on mobile warfare, and tough battles are not yet on the schedule. However, it's soon. The reserve force of the Ukrainian army is growing.
An important question discussed today is whether the Ukrainian army intends to defend Lichansk, or will it withdraw soon? Ammunition consumption in modern warfare is extremely large, and wars are mainly fought for supplies. No matter how elite the troops are, they have no combat effectiveness without bullets. Therefore, the core factor affecting the Ukrainian army's defense in Lichansk is neither the comparison of forces nor the effect of terrain, but whether the logistics support can keep up.
At present, the Russian army has almost cut off the T1302 highway, making it impossible for the Ukrainian army to use this relatively good road to transport ammunition to the Lichansk garrison. Once the frontline Ukrainian army’s logistics line is completely cut off, the Ukrainian army will have no artillery shells. It can suppress the Russian army, but it will fall in two or three days.
However, there is not only one T1302 road that can be taken from Bachmut to Lichansk. There are large plains here with dense villages, so village roads are also a good supplement. It is believed that after the T1302 highway is cut off, the Ukrainian army transport convoy can still reach Lichansk.
The real question now is whether the Ukrainian army can effectively contain the Russian army developing to the northwest in the Popasna salient. If the Russian army attacks further north by 5 to 10 kilometers, even the rich road network here will be cut off. At that time, the Lichansk garrison will quickly pack their bags and retreat.
The second factor that affects the Ukrainian army's persistence in Lichansk is the exchange ratio. It is said that in the Battle of Severodonetsk, the Russian army adopted scorched earth tactics extensively, using 20 times the artillery and 10 times the ammunition consumption of the Ukrainian army to destroy almost all the buildings and fortifications in the advancing area. Therefore, the Russian army consumed a staggering amount of ammunition, but its personnel losses were lower than those of the Ukrainian army.
For the Ukrainian army, the exchange ratio is very important. The total number of troops is originally not as good as the Russian army. If the loss rate is faster than the Russian army in the battle, then there is no hope of winning the battle anyway. What's more, the weapons provided by the West now only account for 10% of the total needs of the Ukrainian army. If the precious elite troops and veterans with combat experience are all consumed in the northeastern Donbass, then the Ukrainian army will not have a backbone force in the near future. It can resist the Russian attack.
If the Russian army continues to use overwhelming artillery superiority and ammunition delivery in Lichansk to consume a large number of Ukrainian combatants and heavy technical weapons, and avoid close combat and strive to control casualties, the Ukrainian army will not be able to consume the Russian army. If we have the purpose of vitality, then it’s okay not to fight such a battle.
There are also favorable factors for the Ukrainian army. The terrain of Lichansk is relatively high, and the Ukrainian army has been operating for a long time, so it must have built many fortifications and tunnels. Beidun defended for a month. If Lichansk can defend for two months and allow the reserve Ukrainian army to complete training and grow into a combat-effective force, then the deal is a good deal: Lichansk can even count on new troops from the rear to come and replace it. Own. But if Lichansk is surrounded on three sides and is bombarded by overwhelming Russian artillery, with a large amount of personnel and weapons consumed, it would be better to retreat step by step. As long as we watch the battles in the next two or three days, we should be able to get a clue of what will happen.
If the Ukrainian army gives up holding on to Lichansk, where will it retreat? Mostly from Seversk to Bachmut.This is a deep defense area built by the Ukrainian army in accordance with the Minsk Agreement . In some places, there are large underground ammunition depots built during the Soviet period. The terrain advantage is better than that of Chansk. The Ukrainian army has been holding on to Beidun for a month. The follow-up echelons must have been stationed at this line of defense and are ready to engage the enemy. Therefore, it is certain to withdraw here and continue to hold on to block and consume the Russian army.
Blue Line of Defense
The third factor that affects the Ukrainian army's persistence in Lichansk is political. Zelensky may be worried that after Russia occupies Beidon and Lichansk and 100% Lugansk , it may declare the end of the "special military operation." Then if the Uzbek army continues to fight, it will be very embarrassing to regain the Lu and Don states, Kherson, Zaporozhye and Crimea. There are some friends in the West who are not determined. You may wonder why this child can cry so much? People don’t hit you anymore, but you still hit them? Perhaps aid to Ukraine will be slowly reduced.
Considering this factor, maybe Ukraine will not give in and stick to Lichansk. However, it would be very irrational if the Western weapons support is not strong enough and the Ukrainian army’s new recruits in the rear are not formed yet, allowing the Ukrainian army to exhaust its last drop of blood here.
Although the above complex factors are affected, it should be noted that this is a strong and brave Ukrainian army. They defeated the elite Russian paratroopers' plan to "occupy Kiev in 1 hour and 22 minutes" on February 24, and even more The Russian army's "Penetration of Ukraine in 3 Days", "Lviv Big Dumplings", " Kharkiv Medium Dumplings", "Donbas Small Dumplings" failed one after another, and even "Severodonesk Nano Dumplings" failed "It took the heroic Ukrainian army a month to eat it. I believe that under the leadership of the fat Zaluzhny and the domineering Zelensky, they are not an army that can be manipulated at will. Ukraine's top leaders will inevitably consider all factors and make the best choice based on the greatest welfare and interests of the Ukrainian people, thereby shortening the stalemate phase of the war, launching an early counterattack, driving the Russians out of Ukrainian soil, and restoring the 1991 2010 border line, and completely recovered the territories currently occupied by Russia such as Luxembourg, Donuts, and Crimea. At this point, I absolutely believe in Ukraine.
also talked about the difficulties faced by the Russian army:
. Another change of generals before the battle seems to be true: On June 26, when inspecting the Russian ground forces in Ukraine, Zhidko sat with Russian Defense Minister Sergei· Next to Shoigu and consulted with him, but Zhedko’s nameplate was obviously blurred by the Russian Ministry of Defense , and his position was not officially confirmed. Then, the Russian military Ukraine who was supposed to report to Shoigu Where is the Commander-in-Chief?
The Conflict Intelligence Team previously reported on May 26 that Zhedko replaced Alexander Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military District, as commander-in-chief of Ukraine, although this news could not be verified at the time.
If one considers the June 21 reports of Dvornikov’s dismissal and Zhedko’s important role in Shoigu’s June 26 visit, it is possible that the substitution is real.
There are also other news channels saying that the Kremlin dismissed General Dvornikov, the "Butcher of Syria", also known as the "Butcher of Aleppo", because he failed to occupy the capital on the 26th as scheduled. All Luhansk Oblast .
All in all, for the Russian army, Ukraine is indeed a difficult place for active generals to "leave first" and generals who have not left to "reach for the stars"!
2. It is reported that a 67-year-old retired Russian major general Pavel has returned to supervise the special forces operating in Wudong. Pavel is 67 years old and has participated in the Afghan war . Look at this belly. Can he still run when Haimas comes?
A senior intelligence source said: "Many excellent and battle-hardened senior commanders were killed or wounded in the fighting in Ukraine, so second-class officers will be sent to the front line. One of them is General Pavel."
Pavel has more than 40 years of military service. He was previously the commander of Russian special forces and served in Syria. After retiring from active duty five years ago, he lived on the outskirts of Moscow, but it was understood he had been ordered to return to the army last month.
Pavel is so obese that his uniform had to be specially made and he needed two sets of body armor to cover his belly. He needs five meals a day, accompanied by at least one liter of vodka.
Even the old Lianpo who can only do this is not spared. Is the Russian army really short of generals?
3. The Russian army is racking its brains to send more cannon fodder to the battlefield:
ISW research report believes that in addition to the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk pocket, the week-long heavy shelling shows that Russia is now trying to attack the northern axis of Izyum. regain momentum. The Ukrainian army continues to hold its defense lines in the area, making full use of the forest terrain to strengthen defenses.
In the coming weeks, the Russian military may rely increasingly on reserve forces . This is a recent innovation consisting of part-time but voluntary reservists deployed as a unit, often exclusively for rear security duties. This group of people has a large number of people, but they have not received high-intensity combat training. If you think about it, asking a policeman to shoot sniper rifle is better than training a sniper from a blank sheet of paper. But now we are really short of manpower, and we can’t find anyone willing to go to the front line. What can we do?
Although the Russian authorities are likely to use such volunteers to enrich the 3rd Battalion within the regular brigades. However, ISW believes that the Russian leadership may still be unwilling to order general mobilization.
4. In addition to the so-called "regularization" of the reserve forces, the Russian army has also started to think about Chechnya . Yesterday, Kadyrov Jr. said:
"Friends, 4 military battalions "Sever-Ahmed", "Yug-Ahmed", "West-Ai" will soon be formed in the Chechen Republic Hamed" and "Vostok-Ahmed", the number of their personnel is impressive.
The contingent of military personnel will consist entirely of Chechens . They will complement the composition of the forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation".
"The desire to form new, fully staffed battalions is caused by the extreme patriotic sentiments of young people in the region. The number of people who want to defend their homeland is growing exponentially, and it is our task to provide them with such an opportunity."
is truly a language master. It's so beautifully said. But if you think about it carefully, there are actually two sentences: Children, we, Father Goose, still don’t have enough manpower! Now it's your turn to be cannon fodder. Go and die bravely!
In the past 24 hours, the situation in and around Ukraine has been:
. Due to the failure to fulfill the order given by that person: to occupy the entire territory of Lugansk on the 26th, in the past 24 hours, the Russian army has been frantic - continuously launching 60 cruise missiles The missiles all hit civilian facilities with precision.
According to statistics, from last night to now, the Russian army has launched more than 60 cruise missiles, but without exception, they have all accurately hit civilian facilities, such as hitting children's slides and seesaws in the open spaces of Kiev kindergartens, and destroying the open spaces of the kindergartens. A big hole was blown.
In addition, the Russian army also bombed civilian houses in several villages, including toilets, which were repeatedly bombed several times by Russian cruise missiles, while not a single military facility was bombed. It can be determined from this that the Russian army should no longer have precision-guided weapons and equipment, or in other words, their missiles can only be accurately guided to civilian facilities.
And the world is increasingly seeing the nature of this bear: the fury of the Russian army, robbing the land with its head.
2. Zelensky shouted to Lukashenko: The Russian leadership wants to drag you ( Belarus ) into the war because it does not care about your life. But you are not a slave, you can decide your own destiny!
In fact, Zelensky doesn’t need to worry. The white vixen is here. He had already been captured by a certain capital and was unwilling to do so. He used this war to gain a lot of benefits. Isn't this enough? Do you have to fill yourself into the fire pit? Lukashenko is not that stupid!
3. Today, Russia defaulted on a sovereign debt for the first time since 1918.
Russia has defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of increasingly tough Western sanctions that have shut off payments to overseas creditors. Over the past few months, Russia has worked hard to find various ways to circumvent sanctions and penalties, and has succeeded in quite a few of them. But at the end of Sunday, the grace period for interest payments of approximately US$100 million due on May 27 expired, resulting in this default. The default will lead to a downgrade of Russia’s national credit rating, international financing or There is less room for error when engaging in trade.
Russia Today commented angrily: The Western media actually collectively celebrated Russia's breach of contract. How unreasonable! Their anger may have some validity, because Russia does not have no money, it just lacks the means to pay. The debt default caused by this is really "humiliating". But Russia today ignores a bigger fact, that is, if you did not do bad things in the first place, you will not have to bear these sins today. In other words, you brought these humiliations upon yourself, so reflect on it!
4. Although the Russian army has made negligible progress on the battlefield, it is still sinking slowly toward the depths of the icy ocean like the "Titanic" ship after hitting an iceberg. Herman Gref, head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, recently stated that the Russian economy may enter a recession that will last for more than 10 years. The core meaning of his statement is this: 56% of Russia's exports and 51% of its imports come from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia. On the one hand, things produced domestically cannot be sold to countries that impose sanctions on Russia, and on the other hand, they cannot be imported from other countries. This is a negative endless cycle, and the economy is bound to decline.
There is always someone who can explain the underlying logic concisely. Only the well frogs still believed as always that there was a transparent and intangible elephant in the room. They also believed that the round piece of light they saw was the entire sky. It is precisely because of this group of people that Russia has reached the path it is on today, and will continue to do so.
Diplomacy:
. Ukraine will receive 1 billion euros from Germany: On June 25, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine and the German Ministry of Finance signed an agreement for Germany to provide 1 billion euros in grant funds to Ukraine. The funds will be used in Ukraine's state budget to finance social and humanitarian spending during martial law.
Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko thanked Germany "for their help." He added that he hoped to receive the funds in the near future. The money is for Ukrainian government expenditures, not the military.
shouldn’t be lagging anymore, right?
2. Support for Ukraine will receive institutional support from Western countries: According to a Bloomberg report on the 26th, according to a draft statement from the Group of Seven (G7) leaders Bavaria summit, the G7 leaders intend to commit to supporting Russia and Ukraine. Provide indefinite support to Ukraine in the conflict.
According to reports, the draft statement said, “We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine and stand with Ukraine when necessary."
The draft statement also said that G7 leaders are also considering the possibility of using tariff revenue to support Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, this is good news for Ukraine. In addition, the G7 heads of state agreed to take further sanctions against Russia. The US government is in During the G7 summit, it was revealed that these measures mainly target aspects such as arms production and supply chains.
3. On Sunday, the leaders of the Group of Seven countries held a meeting in Bavaria and proposed setting a cap on the price of Russian oil and pipeline natural gas. In order to significantly reduce the Kremlin's revenue and reduce inflationary pressure in Western countries, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi took the lead in proposing to set a price ceiling for Russian oil and natural gas, which was supported by Macron
natural gas cap. The way it works is simply that European countries refuse to pay more than a yet-to-be-specified fixed price for Russian gas. Some argue that Russia has no alternative market to sell pipeline gas in the short term unless it is prepared to deal a huge hit to its revenue by shutting down the pipeline entirely. It will have no choice but to sell at the price set by Europe.
However, the liquefied gas will not be subject to this maximum price.
The way the price cap works is to provide insurance to the quasi- monopoly responsible for Russian tankers. issued instructions that they would be sanctioned if they allowed oil to be sold at a higher price than the fixed price. About 95% of the world's tanker liability insurance is arranged through a London-based insurance organization called International Protection and Indemnity. The club group must abide by European laws. Therefore, it provides the possibility of practical operation.
Although I have a feeling that Russia will not surrender, these measures will undoubtedly be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
4. In order to deal with Russia's increasing pressure. NATO countries are also actively taking countermeasures. Spain's "El Pais" quoted sources as saying that NATO countries may decide to deploy the largest amount of armed forces during the Madrid summit.
According to sources: "Some countries hope to The various battle groups currently stationed in NATO's east were changed to brigades. "It should be pointed out that the combat units currently deployed in European countries are basically based on the concept of battle groups, usually containing 1,000 to 1,600 people. If they are reorganized into brigades, this number may at least double. The source added that some NATO member states are even considering deploying entire divisions. NATO organic divisions are usually commanded by major generals or lieutenant generals and number as many as 15,000 people.
A multipolar and dangerous era similar to that of the 19th century is coming. That is not the future, but a reality. .
At the end of today’s article, let’s discuss the impact of the loss of Beidun on Russia and Ukraine: Many readers sent me private messages on WeChat that Ukraine is in danger, why doesn’t the West provide massive weapons? To be honest, for concern and support? For people in Ukraine, this is also our common concern. But it should be noted that things are far from being pessimistic:
On the one hand, the Russian military is still short of personnel. This suspicion is not an inference but a fact. Sometimes. When there was an obviously favorable situation for the Russian army on the battlefield, they did not take advantage of it. This can only be explained by the lack of sufficient troops;
Secondly, the current advancement of the Russian army is not only the result of improved fighting style, but also a huge consumption Caused by old-type artillery shells. Although Russia does have a large amount of legacy from the Soviet army, it will still be exhausted. The 122mm howitzer of the DPR militia exploded, and the missile launched by the Russian army yesterday flew back and destroyed its own launch vehicle. All indicate that the shelf life of these ammunition has expired, and if consumption continues, the Russian military's inventory will bottom out;
Third, although the Russian treasury revenue has not decreased due to rising energy prices, this does not mean that all sanctions have failed. should see that sanctions have had a major impact on Russia's economy and national strength. Russia cannot become more relaxed by dragging straw in the water;
Fourth, from a strategic point of view, the Ukrainian issue has no solution for Russia: Russia's favorable window period is permanently closed before February 28. From then on, time will only be on Ukraine's side: Russia may be able to use retired generals to command reserve soldiers to charge into battle, or it can drive the Chechen website Red Army to fight, But when the Ukrainian people are bombed by 24 cruise missiles in one day, they will remember it, just like the Chinese people remember the Nanjing Massacre.
Unless Russia can occupy Ukraine as a whole and continue to occupy it, one day Ukraine, which is determined to move westward, will be reborn and prosper, but Russia, which is burdened with sanctions, will only decline. And when the strength of both sides waxes and wanes, and the per capita GDP of Ukraine with a population of 40 million becomes three times that of Russia with a population of 130 million, the Ukrainian army will still make a tenacious comeback, using weapons they independently developed or obtained from Western countries. Various weapons turned Russia into a sea of fire. This is a doomsday scenario that will surely become a reality. This is a war that has no chance of winning for the Russian nation. This is the most painful textbook for the Russian nation.
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Source of information: 2022-06-27 WeChat public account Extremely Dark Night
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xC5_mwVxRibkevRxHnuXXg
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