The house was leaking and raining overnight. The bombing of the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline has not yet been found, and three other bad news has come one after another, making Europe, which is already in short supply of energy.
1. Europe's largest natural gas field will be closed
Speaking of Netherlands , we will first think of windmills and tulips. In fact, the Netherlands also has the largest natural gas field in Europe and the tenth largest natural gas field in the world - Groningen Gas Field.
Groningen gas field production once reached 40 billion cubic meters per year, equivalent to 10% of EU consumption. Since its operation in the 1960s, it still has 450 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves. As long as mining is increased, it will be no problem to "save" Europe in the short term.
However, the Dutch government suddenly announced that it would limit the production of the Groningen gas field to 2.8 billion cubic meters, and would completely stop production by 2024 at the latest. Compared with the suffering EU brothers, the Dutch people have no energy pressure at all. Instead, they also called for the closure of natural gas fields. Not only did they refuse to save them, but they instead took the blame.
For the Netherlands, natural gas is just like air and can’t be used up at all, so it can only be sold. Domestic oil and gas giant Royal Dutch Shell Group can support the entire country by exporting natural gas alone.
However, excessive reliance on energy exports has led to a serious decline in the industrial level in the Netherlands. People can get first-class benefits without working hard. The decline in productivity has led to a gradual deterioration of the Dutch economy. The turning point of the matter was caused by several earthquakes in 2013. Due to excessive exploitation of natural gas, the land collapsed and hundreds of thousands of residents were damaged. Therefore, the Dutch government began to cut gas production and even planned to stop mining.
From then on, the annual output of the gas field has been cut from 54 billion cubic meters to 4.5 billion cubic meters; in 2016, the Dutch government banned the use of natural gas in new buildings for heating, and plans to completely ban households from using natural gas by 2050, and the whole country switches to renewable energy .
The Netherlands has shut down gas fields, which is naturally under pressure from the EU, but we cannot ignore the safety of people in the gas field because of energy shortage. Therefore, the Netherlands would rather open thermal power and import expensive liquefied natural gas . Prime Minister Rutt also insisted on not expanding natural gas production unless it faces "extreme situations".
2. Zelensky : Will be powered off to Europe at "sometimes"
On October 6, Zelensky said that Ukraine has been providing cheap electricity to Europe, but due to insufficient heating energy, Ukraine will stop supplying electricity to Europe at "sometimes", which may last for several days, or weeks.
Ukraine has always received assistance from Western countries and it is also necessary to provide cheap energy to Europe. Now it is a critical moment for Ukraine to counterattack. Zelensky suddenly said, "It's a bit tight." That may be because he really encountered a problem.
It is understood that Russian President Putin has officially ordered the listing of Zaporo thermonuclear power plant as an asset of the Russian Federation, completely interrupting the connection with the Ukrainian state grid, which can only be used by Russian nuclear energy operation organizations.
It is understood that the Zaporo Thermal Nuclear Power Plant is the largest and third largest nuclear power plant in Europe, providing 20% of Ukraine's power supply. Now after being occupied by Russia, Ukraine will face the pressure of wintering, let alone continue to supply European countries.
3. "OPEC+" production cut
On the same day, although the United States tried hard to obstruct, "OPEC+" still announced a production cut of 2 million barrels per day, causing the world's crude oil prices to rise rapidly, attracting European countries that are already in short supply of energy.
In fact, for the EU, the impact of oil production cuts has not been fully revealed. By the time the "price limit order" on Russian oil and the "embargo order" in December passed, the EU will not be able to obtain any oil and gas resources from Russia and will be forced to "energy independence".
data shows that Russia's pipeline natural gas supply to the EU has dropped from 40% to 7.5%, but the reserves of European underground gas storage facilities have reached 90.12%, and most countries are close to completing the reserve task.
However, the International Energy Agency warned that the current stock is sufficient only if there is no extreme climate or emergencies. Even if this winter is successfully completed, is expected to have only about 20% of its inventory left by the beginning of next spring, and it will be even more difficult to endure the next winter.
Demonstrations broke out in many countries, energy crisis exacerbated social unrest
Winter is approaching, energy prices are still high, recent events have frequently stimulated the energy market, the unbearable European people have expanded their "traditional arts", and large-scale demonstrations broke out in many countries.
UK:
A few days ago, marches broke out in more than 50 cities in the UK, and tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets to protest the government's failed energy policies. People shouted slogans such as "Fedible", "Refusing to pay bills", "This is a shame" , and even has that took the opportunity to make a "referendum".
According to the UK energy regulator, 40% to 60% of domestic power supply need to rely on natural gas, and the UK is now in the "major risk" of , and it is foreseeable that power plants will be shut down and closed down.
data shows that from October, British people's energy consumption will rise by 80%, reaching £3,549 per year, and may double by mid-next year. This move has aroused serious dissatisfaction and concerns among the people.
Originally, ordinary people were already living a life of tightening their belts, but the tax cut policy of Tras favoring the wealthy once again ignited people's anger. Polls showed that more than half of the people believed that Tras should resign.
You should know that this newly promoted prime minister has only been in office for a month. With the British Isles being divided, Tras may become the "shortest-lived" prime minister .
Germany:
Germany On the day of National Day, protests broke out in many cities. People asked Berlin to withdraw from NATO , lift sanctions on Russia, restore natural gas trade, and call on the government to give priority to solving the problem of excessive living costs.
html Since September, demonstrations of more than 10,000 people have erupted in Germany every week, and they have asked for "Germany first", which is also common in other EU countries.Previously, Russia had released goodwill and stated that it could transport natural gas through the " Nord Stream 2" B line, but German Vice Prime Minister Habek refused on the grounds that the pipeline was subject to US sanctions. At the same time, he accused the United States of charging too high liquefied natural gas from Germany. is simply contradictory .
France:
A nationwide strike broke out a few days ago, with a total of 250,000 people taking to the streets to protest, affecting multiple public departments . The public believes that it was a wrong decision made by the authorities, resulting in the decline of France's strategic autonomy, which is subject to the United States and Russia, but the people have to pay for it.
In order to cope with the energy crisis, the French government has achieved few results in opening up the source, but it is very active in saving money. Recently, it launched a national energy-saving plan, calling on the public to reduce unnecessary energy consumption and achieve the goal of saving 10% within two years.
Specifically, the heating temperature in winter cannot be higher than 19 degrees Celsius, the temperature in summer must not be higher than 26 degrees, the use of lighting advertisements is prohibited from 1:00 to 6:00 am, the speed limit of the expressway will drop by 20 kilometers, etc. Even the time spent on bathing and watching TV is carefully calculated, which is very saving.
It is in this case that France also promised to continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine. The money saved by was used to support Zelensky, and the war would further put the people under pressure, which also led to a complete outbreak of public anger.
The leading European countries are still like this, and other places will only be worse. Data shows that the EU's consumer price index in September increased by about 10% year-on-year, and energy prices rose the largest proportion, up 40.8% year-on-year.
Among them, Eastern European countries pay the most, such as Poland inflation reached 17.2%, Slovakia 13.6%, and the inflation rates of the three Baltic countries were all above 22%, which is the highest in the euro zone.
Many countries do their own thing, the EU has fallen apart and the economic situation is deteriorating, the energy crisis is not responding to, and pessimism has begun to spread, which will undoubtedly brew greater social unrest. Under the angriness of the masses, many countries have begun to "quietly" change their policies toward Russia under pressure.
Italy: Resuming purchase of gas from Russia
On October 5, Russia Gas said it had resumed supply of gas to Italy by transiting Austria . It is understood that the natural gas pipeline at the junction of northern Italy and Austria is controlled by Russia. After Austria signed a transportation contract with Russia, the line was re-activated, and Italy once again obtained Russian gas.
data shows that Italy consumes 76 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021, of which 29 billion cubic meters come from Russia, accounting for nearly 40%, which is equivalent to Germany's dependence on Russian gas. This time, it is much better than other EU countries. Of course, is also related to the pro-Russian right-wing party .
Bulgaria : Temporarily give up energy sanctions on Russia
According to Russian media reports, Bulgaria will suspend the implementation of EU sanctions on Russian fuel. You should know that its dependence on Russian natural gas is higher, reaching 90%; oil dependence is as high as 65%, and domestic supply cannot keep up, so it basically doesn't need to go through it. , in the face of life and death, we don’t care about “political correctness” .
Germany: Allocate another 200 billion euros of energy subsidy
This plan is similar to Tras' energy rescue plan, which directly gives money to the people and enterprises to deal with the rise in energy prices. However, the problem is that Germany's move has not been approved by the EU, but has been unilaterally decided.
plus the previous 100 billion, German companies and families have received 300 billion euros of energy subsidies. Experts believe that this kind of spending money will inevitably aggravate inflation , and pass on the pressure on high prices to other EU countries, destroying the EU single market .
Hungarian Prince Orban condemned Germany's move as "cannibalism" , and French Finance Minister Le Maire believes that "will face the risk of the disintegration of the euro zone" . In addition, Germany has always opposed the price limit on Russian natural gas and has been in constant conflict with EU senior executives.
All countries do their own things and do not even inform the EU. The issue of solidarity within the EU has once again been put before the world. In fact, we cannot blame the member states. European Commission itself is too inefficient in its work and has not been given aid for a long time. No country that is dependent on Russia's energy will sit and wait for death.
In this way, more countries may try to communicate with Russia unilaterally, or even reach an agreement secretly to solve the urgent problem. By that time, Western sanctions on Russia will completely become a laughing stock.
The most important thing is that the credibility of the EU will be greatly damaged. If the member states are disobedient, what else can we talk about European integration . If the idea of "national priority is higher than EU priority" is rampant, then the EU will not be far from being divided .
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