On January 19, 2023, China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the "National Novel Coronavirus Infection Epidemic" The "Situation Situation" shows that from January 13 to 19, there were a total of 12,658 in-hospital deaths related to new coronavirus infection in medical institutions in 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, including 681 deaths due to respiratory failure due to new coronavirus infection, and 11,977 deaths due to underlying diseases combined with new coronavirus infection.
This is the second report since the new crown epidemic information was released on a weekly basis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The last date of information release was January 12, 2023. The report stated that between December 8, 2022 and January 12, 2023, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) Municipalities) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps medical institutions have accumulated a total of 59,938 in-hospital deaths related to COVID-19 infection, including 5,503 deaths caused by respiratory failure due to COVID-19 infection, and 54,435 deaths caused by aggravation of underlying diseases combined with COVID-19 infection.
In this way, from December 8, 2022 to January 19, 2023, a total of 72,596 deaths related to new coronavirus infection in the hospital were reported in 41 days, including 6,184 deaths caused by respiratory failure due to new coronavirus infection, and 66,412 deaths due to underlying diseases combined with new coronavirus infection.
Since the report is " Death cases related to new coronavirus infection in hospital ", it means that the number of death cases related to new coronavirus infection in the country during the period is higher than this number.
Before relaxation, experts insisted that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was lower than that of influenza.
Before relaxation, especially after and Omicron became the dominant strain, some experts repeatedly emphasized that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was already lower than that of influenza.
For example, as early as March 2022, Zhang Wenhong quoted data from the British read-through media " Daily Mail " and said that the case fatality rate of the new coronavirus was already lower than that of influenza.
html In May, Zhang Wenhong also said, " Omicron will induce a certain degree of inflammatory reaction, but the degree is weaker than that of influenza."In addition, before the relaxation, some top experts even said that the Omicron infection was just a cold, the current new coronavirus should be called the "new coronavirus cold."
88,000 people die from influenza in China every year?
There has always been great controversy about the number of people who die from influenza in our country every year.
Among them, a widely popular statement is that 88,000 people die from influenza in China every year. The term
comes from a research paper titled "Influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality in China, 2010-15: a population-based study" published in The Lancet Public Health in 2019, led by from the School of Public Health of Fudan University.
Research shows that between 2010 and 2015, an average of 88100 influenza-related respiratory system excess deaths occurred in my country every year.
How did you come up with the figure “88,000 people die from influenza in China every year”?
What about the excess deaths from the respiratory system?
uses the same estimation method as the equally widely circulated statement that "650,000 people die from influenza worldwide every year."
The statement "650,000 people die from influenza every year around the world" comes from a study led by the US CDC, which was also published in 2019, but the publication was the official issue of The Lancet.
are all extrapolated by estimating influenza-related excess respiratory mortality (EMR) estimates.
So, what is influenza-related respiratory EMR?
Influenza-related respiratory EMR is the portion of the mortality rate influenza and pneumonia (influenza and pneumonia, P&I) observed during the influenza epidemic season that exceeds the P&I mortality rate during the non-epidemic season as the baseline.
In other words, all deaths from lower respiratory tract infections (pneumonia and bronchiolopneumonia) that occur during influenza epidemic seasons are indiscriminately attributed to influenza. This excess mortality rate from influenza and pneumonia is influenza-related respiratory EMR.
uses this influenza-related respiratory EMR and substitutes it into the total population to obtain the number of people who died of influenza in a certain area in a certain year.
41 days exceeded 72,000 VS 88,000 a year, which is larger than
. It can be seen that whether it is "88,000 people die from influenza in China every year" or "650,000 people die from influenza every year around the world", the estimation standard for death from influenza is much broader than " new coronavirus infection-related deaths ".
After all, " new coronavirus infection-related death " must have a positive nucleic acid test for the new coronavirus as an indispensable death diagnostic criterion; while "death from influenza" does not require a positive nucleic acid test for the influenza virus as a death diagnostic criterion, but an excess estimate.
Due to well-known reasons, the number of " new coronavirus infection-related deaths in hospitals " in my country after liberalization does not reflect the full picture of new coronavirus infection-related deaths. The latter should be much higher than the former.
In this way, in the 41 days when more than 72,000 " hospital-related deaths related to new coronavirus infection " were reported, the actual number of "" hospital-related deaths related to new coronavirus infection" was not only higher than 72,000, but should also be higher than 88,000.
In other words, from December 8, 2022 to January 19, 2023, the cumulative number of deaths related to new coronavirus infection reported in the hospital during these 41 days is definitely higher than Between 2010 and 2015, the average number of 88,000 influenza-related excess respiratory deaths that occurred in my country every year.
Those experts who claimed that "the mortality rate of COVID-19 is lower than that of influenza" before the relaxation, please stand up and give people an explanation; or a solemn apology of "bow 90 degrees and never look up"!
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