On Monday, the President of Ukraine had a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Modi , hoping that India would help implement the "peace plan" proposed by Zelensky at G20. This peace plan was the "pilot and peace plan" proposed by Zelensky during the G20 video connection in November. "Opinions for peace" include withdrawing Russian troops from Ukraine, punishing war criminals, etc. At that time, Zelensky had just completed the video connection, and Russian missiles were fired at Ukraine...Zelensky asked India for help, but he really asked the wrong "god". The problem is that with Ukraine's peace conditions, no one can solve it except directly asking Putin for "help".
Russia also issued an ultimatum to Ukraine. Lavrov said that Ukraine should either agree to Russia's conditions or let the military have the final say. Whether the parties will talk or not, and whether they can talk, has become an important focus of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Putin has not been idle recently, and the civil and military battles with Europe and the United States are going on all the time.
On Tuesday, Putin responded positively to the EU "price limit order". Putin signed a decree banning the export of crude oil to countries that set upper limits on the price of Russian oil . However, Putin's "oil ban" will only be implemented for 5 months, and special permissions can also be granted to some countries within the scope of the ban. The meaning is obvious. For some countries in the EU that are friendly to Russia, such as Hungary, Russia may still continue to export oil, and the price may be discounted.
In fact, Russia’s counterattack against the EU is very pale. Although the EU is still buying Russian oil, it is easier to diversify the import of oil than natural gas. After all, OPEC has plenty of oil, but if Saudi Arabia does not increase production, the price of oil for the EU will be higher.
Judging from Russia’s counterattack, Russia is now very passive in the oil field. If Russia really has an absolute advantage in the oil field, it would be enough to directly cut off the oil pipelines and implement an oil embargo. This kind of oil ban with conditions and room for maneuver still reflects Russia's helplessness. Of course, the EU also talks about "immunity" when it targets Russian energy sanctions, which shows that the confrontation between Russia and Europe in the energy field is not complete. If it is thorough, we can simply terminate cooperation. However, the pipelines passing through Ukraine are not suspended. What is interesting is that Ukraine does not dare to blow up these pipelines.
While the confrontation continues, there is talk of peace talks. Is it likely that all parties will sit down for peace talks now? Former German Chancellor Merkel claimed on Tuesday that she did not know how the conflict in Ukraine would end. Although Merkel said that wars often end in negotiations, it is clear that she has not yet seen how Russia and Ukraine, or even multiple parties, should negotiate.
Judging from the current attitudes of all parties and the situation on the battlefield, Russia wants to talk but it is impossible to talk. Whether to talk about Ukraine depends on the face of the United States. If the United States wants to talk about Russia, it must make concessions. The EU depends on whether all parties are willing to talk. As long as they talk, I will talk.
First, Russia must negotiate according to its own wishes, that is, let Ukraine recognize that Donetsk , Luhansk , Kherson , Zaporozhye belong to Russia. This condition is not at all in line with the condition that the United States wants to "negotiate only when Ukraine has an advantage at the negotiating table."
Regarding the current battlefield situation, Russia has no room for concessions, because Russia has legislated the ownership of Kherson, Zaporozhye and other places. If Russia gives in, it will definitely be criticized. You know, although Russia has recently expressed its attitude towards peace talks, Putin and Shoigu frequently visit military factories. I am afraid that the reason behind this is not that simple.
Secondly, as for the United States, the United States is actually a country that can really escape unscathed. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is no longer fought, and the strategic purpose of the United States has basically been achieved. The purpose of consuming Russia has been achieved. Even if there is a ceasefire, the West's isolation and blockade of Russia will not stop for several years.
The problem is face. If we talk about a ceasefire now, Ukraine will definitely make the biggest concessions, but this is also in line with reality. After all, Ukraine has lost its territory and is unable to counterattack. If the fight continues, Ukraine will pay a heavy price, and it may not be able to regain the lost ground.
Third, for the EU, it obviously does not want the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to continue. As long as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends, international energy prices will definitely fall, which will not do any harm to the EU. Although the height of cooperation between Russia and Europe is unlikely to reach the level of Merkel's period, it will not deteriorate further, and why economic recovery , the EU will still choose to release some goodwill and lift some sanctions on Russia.
It is not yet certain whether the EU will reap the benefits of setting a cap on energy prices after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If the EU insists on suppressing Russian oil and natural gas, the "sequelae" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will last for a long time. But if the EU can't get any benefits, then it will really play the role of "running along".
In summary, although all parties have reasons not to continue the fight, the conditions for sharing the benefits of the peace talks have not been presented. In this situation where you are the only one who has demands but others have different opinions from you, it is impossible for all parties to achieve dialogue. As far as the United States is concerned, the United States wants the EU to set a cap on energy prices?
You must know that the EU's upper limit on energy prices not only targets Russia, but also targets energy imported through other channels, including the United States. Therefore, if the EU only targets Russia, the United States will naturally be happy, but what is the use of the EU only targeting Russia? If Russia does not sell and international energy prices rise, won’t the EU still have to pay high energy prices?
For Russia, if Russia wants to completely win this war, it has no choice but to continue to fight. Judging from the current situation in Ukraine, Ukraine's counterattack strength has reached a critical point. Kadyrov stated that in order to maintain the current situation, Ukraine has to send some soldiers without systematic training to the front line. This shows that the cost of Ukraine's resistance has reached its limit. As long as the Russian army continues to attack, it will be difficult for the Ukrainian army to last another year or even half a year.
Now Russia has slowed down its attack speed. Except for Bakhmut, who is fighting fiercely, the exchanges of fire elsewhere are sporadic. This low-intensity consumption looks like seeking peace talks, but it also seems like a delaying tactic. If Russia can accept the current situation, then why should the 300,000 mobilized reserves be sent to the battlefield?
Obviously, if Ukraine and the West cannot meet Russia's conditions (which is actually impossible to meet), Russia can only choose to continue fighting, because Russia cannot accept a defeat.
Can Ukraine accept failure? This is precisely not something that Ukraine can decide.
As long as the United States says not to fight, Ukraine can only choose to negotiate. Without the support of the United States, Ukraine will be unable to move forward. So, will the United States choose a ceasefire?
For now, Russia has not hurt the United States at all, so it is impossible for the United States to give up. Therefore, what Russia faces now is not how to defeat Ukraine, but how to hurt the United States!
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