Recently, there has been considerable unrest between Russia and Kazakhstan. The openness of the conflicts between the two parties has led to speculation that a rift has emerged in the relationship between the two countries. From refusing to recognize the independent status of the

Recently, there has been considerable unrest between Russia and Kazakhstan. The openness of the conflicts between the two parties has led to speculation that there is a rift in the relationship between the two countries. From refusing to recognize the independent status of Donetsk and the Luhansk Republic to stopping the transportation of sanctioned materials to Russia, Kazakhstan’s actions are all contrary to Russia’s interests. Wan Qingsong, deputy dean of the Institute of Russian and Eurasian Studies at East China Normal University and director of scientific research at the Peripheral Center, believes: The rift between Russia and Kazakhstan will not expand, nor will it lead to the "Ukrainization" of the Russia-Kazakhstan issue, because the top leaders of both sides are still in contact and their willingness to cooperate has not changed. And the latest news also verifies this scholar’s ​​point of view.

html On July 12, the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan discussed hot issues in bilateral cooperation during a telephone conversation and confirmed that the two countries would further strengthen cooperative relations and alliance building. The remarks made by both parties are also regarded as political stops and corrections. This also proves that the basis for cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan still exists, and Russia does not need to worry too much about the security of the Southern Gate for the time being. However, although the heads of state of Russia and Kazakhstan intend to maintain bilateral relations, the risk of deterioration of relations still exists, and it is very important for both parties to conduct appropriate risk management and control.

At the St. Petersburg International Forum, Kazakhstan does not recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, which is considered to be the starting point of conflicts between the two countries. But now, except for Syria and North Korea, no country recognizes the independent status of these two countries. Purely from the perspective of international law , the independence of Luton and Luton may not receive legal support. Therefore, hastily recognizing the independent status of the two countries will put the country in a very passive position in terms of public opinion. Moreover, Russia has not asked other countries to recognize the independent status of Luton and Luton. This choice is not in the interests of many countries. Forcing this requirement will only make Russia's popularity worse.

In addition, Kazakhstan President Tokayev also expressed concerns about the contradiction between the indivisibility of sovereignty and national self-determination regarding the issue between Luton and Tonga. Due to the special history of the Soviet period, some Russian-inhabited areas in Kazakhstan were transferred to Kazakhstan from Russia by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. If Russia begins to use national self-determination to promote the independence of Luton and the two countries, will the same be true for the Russian-inhabited areas in Kazakhstan? Of course, hidden dangers in this area have existed for quite some time, and Tokayev only took the opportunity to attend a meeting in Russia to make these hidden concerns clear, so that both parties could discuss solutions.

Kazakhstan has not supported Russia on the Ukraine issue, nor is it prepared to help Russia circumvent sanctions. It also hopes to maintain a certain distance from Russia. This is due to various reasons.

First of all, after the CSTO sent troops to quell the riots in Kazakhstan in January this year, some chauvinistic remarks appeared in Russia. The relevant arguments lacked respect for Kazakhstan and also damaged the relationship between the two countries. In the past few months, there has been no shortage of similar remarks in Russia, so Tokayev cannot turn a blind eye to this, and there must be a necessary response.

In addition, although Russia and Kazakhstan theoretically have a military alliance and both parties are in the collective security organization, politically Kazakhstan is relatively independent. While maintaining good relations with Russia, Kazakhstan also needs to strike a balance between other major countries. And considering the pro-Russian people in the country, it is more beneficial to Kazakhstan to avoid getting involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is precisely because of the existence of these people and their special historical background that there are concerns about the "Ukrainization" of the Russia-Kazakhstan issue.

Regarding some trade frictions between Russia and Kazakhstan, the officials of the two countries actually explained later and smoothed things over. In fact, Kazakhstan is seeking to diversify its oil export routes, which is not only related to economic interests, but also a means of hedging political risks.Russia's suspension of the operation of the Caspian Sea Pipeline Alliance oil pipeline may have been a response to Kazakhstan's actions, but in the end the two sides reached a reconciliation in the official media, and if everything goes well, this matter will be over.

It is worth mentioning that, in addition to dealing with complex external situations, Tokayev also needs to deal with the intensified internal political struggle. After all, he is not Nazarbayev and does not have such strong appeal and influence. Therefore, Kazakhstan’s opposition can use internal issues to make a fuss and oppose his comprehensive reform plan. Recently, xenophobia has begun to rise in Kazakhstan. In order to remove obstacles to constitutional revision and reform, Tokayev also needs to temporarily comply with public opinion and keep a certain distance from Russia. Otherwise, the growing xenophobia group will be his biggest obstacle.

As for whether the issue between Russia and Kazakhstan will be "Ukrainized", at least judging from the current situation, it will not be possible. First of all, high-level governments of Russia and Kazakhstan are consciously controlling the development of public opinion, strengthening communication, and avoiding strategic misjudgments. High-level communication channels between the two sides are still smooth, strategic mutual trust still exists, and bilateral relations are unlikely to take a turn for the worse in a short period of time.

In addition, the reason why Russia is in conflict with Ukraine is related to the fact that Ukraine tore up the agreement and stopped leasing the Sevastopol Port to Russia. On the other hand, even if Kazakhstan’s relations with Russia have declined recently, it has not affected the leasing of the Baikonur Space Center, nor has it affected Russia’s major concerns and interests. From this point of view, the Tokayev government's compliance with the agreement has also avoided possible conflicts.

In fact, mainstream public opinion in Russia is not worried about the "Ukrainization" of the Russia-Kazakhstan issue, because the two sides have no objective differences and conflicts in geopolitics, and Kazakhstan itself has basic guarantees in terms of economic development and national security within the Collective Security Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union. At that time, Ukraine did not have such a good external environment, and the rapid amplification of internal conflicts in Ukraine also provided an opportunity for Russia to use national self-determination to expand its strategic space and establish a buffer zone with NATO . Generally speaking, all aspects of the situation in Kazakhstan are generally controllable, and the possibility of things getting out of control is relatively small.

In addition, from a geographical point of view, Kazakhstan does not directly border with Western countries. The influence that the United States, or the West, can project is limited. Even if external forces want to build Kazakhstan into a new front line against Russia, it is still difficult to do so. With the combined effect of various factors, there is no need to worry that Kazakhstan will repeat the mistakes of Ukraine.