Editor: So sleepy Aeneas
[ New Wisdom Introduction] The decisive battle between Pampas Eagle and Gallic Rooster will be staged in more than thirty hours. AI prediction: The winning rate is close, Argentina is slightly higher.
html On December 18, the Qatar World Cup Finals will officially begin.
The defending team France faces Argentina, which is seeking the third championship in team history. It is also a "civil war" between two top stars and Paris Saint-Germain teammates Messi and Mbappe .
Faced with such a strong opponent, who will win the championship?
is not as good, let’s see what AI says!
AI prediction: Argentina has a small probability of defeating France
Here are the results first. According to the predictions of the model, the probability of the two teams winning is very, very close.
Among them, Argentina will lead with a very slight advantage, with a winning rate of 35.1%; in contrast, France is 35.0%.
comprehensive winning rate: Argentina 50.2%, France 49.8%.
In the twilight of the gods, the last dance
This year’s World Cup has been compared to “Twilight of the Gods.” This World Cup is likely to be the "last dance" for the superstars in Qatar.
Messi, Ronaldo, Modric , Di Maria, Suarez, Neuer , Lewand , Benzema , even Neymar ... This is not a list, it is our youth.
Messi, the man who led Barcelona to win the Champions League title and won 7 Ballon d'Or , the only thing missing from his honor list is the Hercules Cup .
2014 was the strongest year for the Argentina national team, and it was also the closest Messi came to the Hercules Cup.
This photo broke the hearts of countless fans.
But this time the Argentine team played in Qatar with unprecedented unity. Messi has truly integrated into the team system this time.
As the game progresses, more and more people admit that Messi does show his championship appearance.
It can be seen that Messi's 45 shots (shots and opportunities created) in the final contributed to 56.3% of Argentina's total shots, which is almost the same as Maradona's impact on the 1986 Argentina World Cup championship
The players of this Argentine team generally have greater strength than fame. Coach Scaloni has also created a set of tactics that are truly suitable for the Argentine team. In short, this year's Argentina team is more like a whole than ever before.
However, due to the lack of explosive wingers, the Argentina team relies too much on Messi. Once Argentina's midfield has no advantage, Messi's power is reduced by half.
Since Maradona in 1986, no country has relied as much on one player as Argentina in the Messi era.
Moreover, Argentina's full-backs are weak and their defense is average, especially their physical fitness has declined. After losing their ability to strangle, their individual defense capabilities are very limited.
If Argentina wants to win, it cannot count on Messi. It needs the younger generation such as Enzo, Lautaro, and Alvarez to stand up and take the lead.
This popular video on site B expresses the sentiments of the majority of fans: "Messi, I don’t have the second youth to chase you."
And this year’s French team is packed with superstars and has a luxurious lineup. Mbappe's speed gives all teams a headache.
The French team, which has Giroud, Mbappe, and Konate, has considerable advantages in most positions; and these stars are all in their prime.
Looking back at the past games of the French team in this World Cup, it can be seen that they were in a defensive posture most of the time. When facing strong opponents, they often handed over possession of the ball to the opponent.
However, in the quarterfinals of this World Cup, the side with the lowest ball possession rate won in the end.
Although Messi is the player who is most closely watched by his opponents, he is in the leading position in many offensive indicators in this tournament.
As for the French team, although their defensive ability is outstanding, they have conceded goals in every game in this competition.
We all know that the shortcomings determine how far a team can go in the World Cup.
At present, the French may lack a real core (the French team was able to win the last World Cup, and the core of the French team was Griezmann and Pogba , but this time, Mbappe may not be worthy of this core).
Argentina and France are both teams that pay more attention to defense, so it can be speculated that both sides will adopt a more cautious offensive strategy.
Although France's record against Argentina before this was not so good - they only won 3 times in 12 encounters and lost 2 times in 3 World Cup games. But that epic 4-3 victory in the last World Cup put Deschamps 's team on the road to winning the championship.
In fact, the French team has won seven consecutive World Cup knockout games. Although it is two fewer than Brazil's record, they are likely to become the third team to successfully defend the title after Brazil in 1962 and Italy in 1938.
Civil War in Paris: Messi versus Mbappe
In this game, Messi is still the key to Argentina's victory.
In the top five leagues of the Champions League this season, no one is more threatening than Messi. In non-penalty situations, he has an average of 1.2 expected goals every 90 minutes.
He has 5 goals and 3 assists in this competition, including a beautiful assist for Alvarez against Croatia last time.
At this point, the 35-year-old veteran has scored a record-breaking 19 goals in his World Cup career.
In this World Cup, Messi participated in Argentina's 43 opening shots, more than twice as many as other players except De Paul (26 times). Among those who contributed equally, only Mbappe
In the final, Messi is likely to score another goal, and this will also make him the first player in history to score in every round of a single World Cup.
According to AI predictions, Messi will take advantage of the gap left by Hernandez , and then cooperate with Alvarez to break through the defense of Varane and Konate.
As Messi’s teammate in Paris Saint-Germain, the strength of the French team’s Mbappe cannot be underestimated.
After all, he has already won the World Cup once.
Since Mbappe scored a goal in the previous final against Croatia, if he can score another goal this time, he will become the youngest player to score in multiple finals at the age of 23.
Meanwhile, Mbappe and Griezmann both have the chance to become the fifth man to score in two finals, and the second (after Vava in 1958 and 1962) to score in two consecutive finals.
Sports analytics enters the AI era
Over the past decade, the artificial intelligence revolution in sports has focused on three key areas, thanks to tracking data:
- Collecting deeper data using computer vision or wearables
- Use tracking data for deeper type analysis
- Make deeper predictions to obtain better prediction results
For example, in this World Cup, we can use AI to analyze how players control the ball when facing pressure. At the same time, we can also dynamically assign pressure levels to the three opponent players closest to the ball throughout the game, and then determine the overall pressure level of the players holding the ball.
Take Messi, for example. He was subjected to high pressure 259 times with the ball - 45 more than any other player, and his average of 40.9 per 90 minutes is higher than any player who has played at least 300 minutes in this competition.
Stats Perform's AI predictive model is based on the world's richest sports database and can be used to evaluate thousands of data points, as well as historical season and game records spanning decades. The model adjusts and transforms with various data inputs:
- Game location and conditions
Whether it has home field advantage, whether it is the regular season or playoffs, what time of day the game is played
- Team's specific data
Team's strengths and weaknesses, historical match performance, recent match performance
- Player's specific data
Players’ strengths and weaknesses, history and recent performance
- Game situation
Current score, remaining time, whether it is regular time or overtime
Data Collection
The main purpose of collecting data is for digital reproduction after the game, therefore, we need to know what happened (i.e. what the final result was), how it happened (i.e. describe the events that led to that result) and how it was completed (i.e. how well the event performed).
uses high-level box-score statistics to give a good summary of a 90-minute football match, such as the number of shots each team has, possession distribution, which team has more corner kicks , more fouls, etc. The
event data provides additional background information on key moments during the game, with more details than box-score.
Similarly, the spatial data of the game (i.e. the spatial position of the players) can provide a visual reconstruction of some key events in the game, such as how a specific goal was scored. While it's not the same as watching a video, it's a quick digitized view of a real-world match that can be reconstructed in seconds.
tracking data is the most detailed data currently captured in sports.
AI can obtain data about each player and football in the game by watching a large number of video recordings, thereby mapping their positions to the virtual stadium. To do this, the responsible CV model needs to perform the following three steps:
- Convert the pixels in the video into points representing the movement trajectories of the players and the ball for visualization.
- html The movement trajectory of 1 point within a certain period of time can be mapped to semantic events in motion (such as shooting).
- From identified events, expected metrics can be derived to explain how well a player performed in a specific event (i.e. expected goals).
Data analysis
However, the data just now cannot be directly used for game analysis.
On the one hand, the team's strategy and formation are hidden in those data points; on the other hand, because the players' positions on the court are constantly changing, the tracking data is full of noise.
As a result, the team developed a way to better visualize and interpret tracking data - "average formation".
From this, it is possible to analyze how a team's structure evolves when attacking or defending, or how formations compare in different contexts, situations or playing styles.
During a game, the AI can also display average game action alongside live matches represented as dots on the pitch map.
simply shows the home team in blue, the visiting team in red, and the "third team" in white to show how other teams would typically handle the same situation.
In addition, coaches can also enter the tactics they want to try, and then let the AI simulate the corresponding execution results.
written at the end
In the twilight of the gods, we are all remnants of the old era.
In more than thirty hours, we will usher in the peak battle between Argentina and France.
Some people say: There will be no more Messi after the World Cup in Qatar. This time, it will be the swan song of the last world champion. Will he win the World Cup?
Can the French team defend the title again?
Now, the atmosphere of the Franco-Arab war is in place, let us wait and see!
Reference:
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2022/12/argentina-vs-france-fifa-world-cup-2022-prediction-and-match-preview/
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