text | Zhang Youhua
Taiwan local nine-in-one election extension will be held in Chiayi City. According to TVBS polls, the mayor candidate KMT Huang Minhui support level 59%, crushing DPP Li Junyi 22%, suggesting that Huang Minhui can finish the extended match. The DPP collapse seems to be foreseeable.
Li Junqi is the son of Li Hongxi, the national teacher of Chen Shui-bian era. In 2012, under the support of Tsai Ing-wen, Li Junqi ran for the "Legislator" in Chiayi City. He won both battles and opened up territory for Cai Kaijiang. In 2020, the Democratic Progressive Party held the "Legislator" primary election in Chiayi City. Unexpectedly, Li Junqi lost to City Councilman Wang Meihui. In addition to hatred, Cai asked Li to serve as the deputy secretary-general of the government. In 2022, the Democratic Progressive Party nominated Chiayi Mayor. Originally, Wang Meihui was selected to play against Huang Minhui, but Tsai Ing-wen believed that Wang Gang was elected as the legislator and then switched to run for mayor, which may be criticized. So Cai Li disagreed with the public and insisted on nominating Li Junqi as the mayor of Chiayi.
After Li became a candidate for Chiayi mayor, the initial polls were not as eye-catching as Huang Minhui. The reason was that Li stayed in Taipei for a long time during his tenure as a "legislator" and rarely served voters, so that the more votes he chose, the fewer votes were selected. Secondly, Lee's poll showed that Lee's support has fallen below the basic market of the DPP, indicating that Lee has no chance of winning against Huang Minhui.
In terms of the blue and green basic market in Chiayi City, the green camp is about 55%, far better than the blue camp 42%. In theory, Li Junqi's polls will not fall around 20%, and even half of the basic market is less than . On the other hand, the yellow poll has broken through the blue and green basic market and is sure to win. The key reason why Huang beat Li Junqi is that the Chiayi City constituency is that the east district is the green camp basic market, while the west district is blue and green evenly divided. Now the east district has collapsed, and the west district blue and green are beat green. The two are multiplied together. Huang's victory is to break through the eastern district basic market. Even though DPP members frequently go to Chiayi City to assist in the election, there is still no hope of turning around. What's more, after the DPP's defeat, the Party Central Committee was undecided and no longer wanted to assist Li Junqi, resulting in a disintegration of the basic morale and Li was even less able to reverse it. Lee's misfortune lies in the faction that the faction did not mobilize, the British faction did nothing, and without Tsai Ing-wen's help, Li was allowed to fend for himself, so how could he win the election?
Copyright Statement: This article is an original article from the author, and the image information is from the Internet. Unauthorized reproduction of the text content in this article is strictly prohibited. If reprinting or citing is required, the author's consent must be obtained and the source is indicated by
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-