Recently, we first talked about the Russian army's estimation of the combat damage situation, which mentioned that the combat damage to the Ukrainian army was difficult to discuss due to the lack of analytical data.
But very cooperative, just one day after we posted the article, European Commission Chairman von der Leyen publicly claimed that more than 100,000 people had died in the war.
Since this data was not released by the Russian side, but was posted by the EU that supports Ukraine, it caused an uproar online. Afterwards, this content was deleted, and the EU expressed its lack of intention to apologize to Ukraine.
Ukraine naturally responded strongly to this, but initially stated that the Ukrainian army's war loss data was confidential and would only be released at appropriate times.
However, as von der Leyen revealed that the data on Ukrainian's deaths continued to ferment, Ukrainian officials were forced to make a direct response to offset the adverse effects.
December 1, Podolak, adviser of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, said in a connection with the media that according to the official evaluation released by the Ukrainian General Staff and the Supreme Commander, the number of deaths in the Ukrainian army since the war began is between 10,000 and 12,500 and 13,000. Podolac also said that the Ukrainian army was more injured.
Therefore, Ukraine officially responded to its own casualties. As Podolak calls it, it will not exceed 13,000 people at most.
. According to the battle report released by the Ukrainian army, as of December 2, the number of Russian soldiers claimed to have exceeded 90,000, specifically 90,090. From this point of view, from the perspective of Ukraine's propaganda, the ratio of the number of casualties between the two sides is about 1 to 7. That is, every time the Ukrainian army was killed, the Russian army would have to kill 7 people.
It is obvious that the results of our own war losses and killings announced by the Ukrainian army are quite exaggerated.
Let’s first look at the death of the Ukrainian army, that is, discuss it based on the maximum of 13,000 people.
At present, the battle between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than 280 days. Based on the data of 13,000 people, the Ukrainian army died on average less than 50 people every day, about 300 people died every week, and about 1,400 people died every month.
If the count is based on the 1-3 death/injury ratio, the Ukrainian army should still have about 39,000 injured people, and the total casualties in the war were about 52,000. If the injured person can return to the team after healing his injuries, from the perspective of Ukrainian military officials, his own irrecoverable damage was only 20,000 to 30,000 people. If the captured people are added, there will be a few thousand more people.
Before the Russian-Ukrainian war, the total strength of the Ukrainian army and the National Guard was about 300,000. If there were only irrecoverable war damage of about 30,000 people in the war, it would only account for one-tenth of the Ukrainian army's permanent troops before the war, and it would not be even possible to get hurt.
. After the war began, the Ukrainian army began to mobilize in a total of 10 combat brigades and activated or newly formed more than 10 combat brigades. In addition, about 30 territorial defense brigades have also been invested in regular war , and more mobilized personnel are still being requisitioned.
According to data released by the Ukrainian Defense Minister in early July, Ukrainian mobilization has reached about one million people. Among them, there were about 700,000 Ukrainian troops, more than 90,000 National Guards, more than 60,000 border guards, and more than 100,000 national police.
The time point in early July is that the Ukrainian army's irrecoverable war losses are only 10,000 or 20,000 people according to its propaganda caliber. In this case, it seems unreasonable to mobilize a million troops.
And according to the propaganda of the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army's death rate against the Russian army on the battlefield can reach 1 to 7. If the Ukrainian army lost 10,000 or 20,000 people by July, then according to the propaganda of the Ukrainian army, the Russian army's irrecoverable war loss exceeded 100,000 people.
However, it is well known that part of the Russian army's mobilization order was issued in late September. Previously, the only contract troops he could use to fight against Ukraine was that he could draw, with a maximum of 150,000 people. With , Lugansk , Donetsk armed forces, as well as volunteers and mercenaries, the ground forces that all fought against Ukraine were only more than 200,000.
Also, please note that the above 200,000 is all troops, and it is not directly invested on the battlefield at the same time.If the irrecoverable combat losses of these troops exceed 100,000, while the Ukrainian army has only 10,000 or 20,000 at this time, and the Ukrainian army has mobilized a million troops at this time, then it is impossible for the Ukrainian army to be defeated on the battlefield of the Beidun urban agglomeration.
even said that according to the propaganda of the Ukrainian army, the irrecoverable war losses in the Russian coalition at this time were more than half, and with the minor wounded, the entire army had almost been destroyed. So what force can stop the Ukrainian army's million-dollar army, which can kill 1 to 7, on the front line of more than 1,000 kilometers?
In fact, before the Russian army announced the mobilization in late September 2022, and before the mobilization was completed in the next one or two months, it mainly used the contract soldiers that could be drawn to fight the Donbas armed forces, volunteers and mercenaries to fight the Ukrainian army. The troops that were normally kept on the front line only had more than 100,000 troops, and some of the remaining casualties also had to be reconciled.
However, with such a small amount of troops, he can still keep his initiative when facing several times the Ukrainian army's strength. Moreover, according to the evaluation of Ukraine and NATO , the Russian army's artillery fire density at this time was as much as 7 to 10 times that of the Ukrainian army.
While the troops are at an absolute disadvantage, the Russian army has absolute firepower advantages. In the context that most of the casualties in the Russian-Ukrainian ground war are caused by artillery fire, is the Ukrainian army that can score a 1-7 death?
Therefore, based on the actual situation on the battlefield, a more realistic perspective is that Ukraine exaggerated the number of killing and wounding Russian troops, and at the same time seriously reduced its own war losses.
Regarding the actual combat losses of the Russian army, based on the current relatively effective data analysis, the total casualties are about 80,000.
This data includes the Donbasian armed forces, volunteers, mercenaries, and of course, including minor wounded people. Therefore, the Russian army does not have so much irrecoverable combat losses.
However, given that most of these casualties of the Russian army are caused by the contract troops and the Donbass armed forces, and their troop size is relatively limited, the casualties rate is not low. In particular, the Russian army mainly suffered casualties, so it had a great impact on its infantry combat team. Therefore, the Russian army mobilized 300,000 people this time, most of them were ground combat personnel.
Ukraine claims that it has killed up to 13,000 people, which is actually a severely shrinking data.
You should know that the number of prisoners of war in the Ukrainian army alone is about half of this number. During most of the Russian-Ukrainian wars, both sides basically had meat-mincing wars on positions.
In this combat style, the amount of artillery fire is very large.
We do not look at it from the Russian perspective. Just from the information that Western media will arrive at the front line of the war, the Ukrainian infantry cannot even see Russian soldiers in most operations, and they are basically killed by artillery fire.
Moreover, even in Donbas 's position is not very strong. It wins in a large number, and behind the large number is that it mobilizes enough troops to scatter in forests, intersections, high-rise buildings, and houses to implement universal defense.
In key areas, the Russian army will have results without even reconnaissance and directly shelling the forest belt. In addition, small drones now guide artillery fire in large quantities, the actual artillery fire will have a relatively high killing rate.
According to Ukraine, the Russian army has to fire 50,000 shells every day, and artillery fire of this magnitude has been very rare in recent decades. If these 50,000 shells could only kill less than 50 Ukrainian soldiers every day under the guidance of the drone , it would be somewhat an insulting shells.
Of course, on the other hand, the vast majority of the casualties of the Russian army were also caused by artillery fire in the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army could have fired six or seven thousand shells every day. Now the supply of shells is problematic, but it can also fire 2,000 to 4,000 rounds.
The Ukrainian army has some Western-style advanced artillery and precisely guided shells, plus the remaining Soviet-style artillery, which can cause considerable damage to the opponent when using swimming tactics and combining with the Russian-Ukrainian fronts for thousands of kilometers, and the Russian army must also send infantry.
However, due to the overall gap in firepower projection capabilities between the two sides and the quality of the Ukrainian army's mobilization, the Russian army can achieve a casualty ratio of about 1 to 4 overall.Given that the actual casualties of the Ukrainian army will be higher, the fact that European Commission President von der Leyen said that 100,000 Ukrainian lost 100,000 people was probably groundless, and it is likely that it was "inadvertently" leaked after obtaining internal data. As for whether it is an act of initiative or a misunderstanding of the tongue, it is hard to say.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-