When the "nine-in-one election" is approaching in Taiwan, the good days of the DPP are coming. As former DPP chairman Xu Xinliang said, the DPP election situation in is pessimistic, and the outcome is basically decided.
If the DPP fails in this midterm election, then it should be a high probability that the surrender of power in 2024 event . At that time, the resistance of the mainland to promote peaceful reunification of the cross-strait will be greatly reduced.
So, does the DPP, which is surrounded by enemies, still have a chance to turn the tables? If the DPP really fails, what will happen to Tsai Ing-wen?
Referred by thousands of people Tsai Ing-wen
For more than 6 years in power, Tsai Ing-wen's political test paper is becoming more and more terrible.
From lack of water and electricity to lack of vaccines lack of people's hearts, from playing with public opinion to election scandals, Tsai Ing-wen's reputation in ruling has been overdrawn in recent years. In addition, the panic and tension brought to Taiwanese society by provoking the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Tsai Ing-wen was almost criticized by thousands of people. Li Yuanzhe, former director of
" Central Research Institute ", not long ago bluntly criticized Tsai Ing-wen for writing a "blank check" for the election, and shamelessly said that greenhouse gas emissions issue, "It is not my business after 2024, it is the business of the next generation." He also accused the DPP of becoming corrupt faster than before after "taking power". The words are very intense.
Li Yuanzhe taught in the United States in his early years and won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry . In 1994, he returned to Taiwan to work in politics and served as the president of the "China Research Institute" for a long time. In 2000, he supported Chen Shui-bian to take office and stood up for Tsai Ing-wen in 2016. He can be regarded as a veteran of the Democratic Progressive Party and has made great contributions to his hard work.
Even such a veteran is willing to take the embarrassment of slapping him in the face and publicly criticizes Tsai Ing-wen, which shows how unbearable Tsai’s support rate is in the party.
In addition to Li Yuanzhe and Tsai Ing-wen's parting ways, in fact, since Tsai came to power in 2016, many important members of the DPP have quit the party. For example, former Taiwan deputy leader Lu Xiulian, who withdrew from the party in 2018, former Tainan County Mayor Su Huanzhi, and Chen Cangjiang, the only county councillor of the Democratic Progressive Party, were the only Democratic Progressive Party member.
In 2019, the "independence" tycoon Cai Mingxian and You Yinglong, chairman of the pro-green agency "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation", also quit the party one after another. On the eve of the election at the end of 2022, former Democratic Progressive Party Democratic Progressive Party, Zheng Baoqing and others who ran for Taoyuan mayor, also ran away one after another.
So, what exactly caused the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen to the point of "betrayal of relatives"?
In this regard, Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun summarized it very accurately. In an interview with the media in October, it bluntly stated that Tsai Ing-wen had long used "slogans to govern Taiwan", and also said that her "four major willfulness" have led to Taiwan's biggest crisis now.
1. Young people’s salary does not rise, and the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen.
2. Let social security deteriorate and violence continues.
3. Allow . The network army attacks the people, suppresses the media, and creates the so-called "green terror."
4. Allow cross-strait relations to deteriorate, and the inability to peaceful dialogue will put Taiwan at risk of war.
The "four willfulness" mentioned by Zhu Lilun is actually her "four major crimes".
Whether Zhu Lilun's example of Tsai Ing-wen's "four major crimes" exists in political struggle, at least the phenomena he mentioned do exist. The dissatisfaction of the Taiwanese people with the DPP authorities is also real.
Criminal or war criminal?
According to a spokesperson for the Kuomintang, Taiwan's unemployment rate reached 3.95% last year, a record high in seven years, and 470,000 people have no workers. According to a Kuomintang spokesperson, Taiwan's unemployment rate reached 3.95% last year, a record high of 7 years, and 470,000 people have no workers. According to a Kuomintang spokesperson, the unemployment rate in Taiwan reached 3.95% last year, a record high of 7 years, and 470,000 people have no workers. According to a Kuomintang spokesperson, the unemployment rate in Taiwan reached 3.95% last year, a record high of 7 years, and 470,000 people have no workers. According to a Kuomintang spokesperson, the unemployment rate in Taiwan reached 3.95% last year, a record high of 7 years, and 470,000 people have no workers. According to a statement from the Kuomintang, the unemployment rate in Taiwan reached 3.95% last year, a record high of 7 years, and 470,000 people have no workers. According to a Kuomintang spokesperson, the unemployment rate in Taiwan reached 3.95% last year, a record high of 7 years, and 470,000 people have no workers. According to a statement from the Kuomintang, the unemployment rate in Taiwan reached 3.95% last year, a record high of 7 years, and 470, This is just the registered data. Moreover, the average salary of office workers is only 37,000 yuan (NTD, the same below), which is far lower than the "monthly average total salary is more than NTD 50,000" released by the statistics department.
According to data from the Taiwan financial authorities, there were 6.462 million comprehensive income tax filing households in Taiwan in 2020, of which the average income of the lowest 5% was 34,000 yuan, and the average income of the highest 5% was 5.053 million yuan. The gap between the highest and the lowest was 148.6 times, far exceeding 130.2 times in 2019. This shows how big the gap between the rich and the poor is.
The economy is sluggish and the public security is even worse. According to the information of the Taiwan "Police Affairs Office", there were 100 shootings in Taiwan in 2021, the highest in the past five years, with an average of 1 shooting in 4 days.
In addition to the economy and people's livelihood, the DPP authorities colluded with external forces to provoke cross-strait confrontation, and carried out "green terror" on the island to suppress dissidents and pushed Taiwan to the brink of war, let alone the crime of "speaking green terror" on the island.
Does both internal and external difficulties and crises are everywhere. Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP seem to have reached a critical moment of life and death. Today's Tsai Ing-wen wants to enjoy her old age, it may be increasingly difficult to achieve. What is waiting for her is more likely to be the following two endings:
The first ending: Following Chen Shui-bian's footsteps and accepting the trial of the Taiwanese people.
In 2017, then the CEO of the Kuomintang Policy Association, , Tsai Zhengyuan, , criticized Tsai Ing-wen, saying that his "will not be much better than Chen Shui-bian in the future." According to the current situation, her fate may be worse than Chen Shui-bian.
Chen Shui-bian stepped down from office less than half a year and was sent to prison, which became a shame for Taiwan. But he should not be the last one, maybe Tsai Ing-wen will set a new historical record.
The second ending: detonate the war and become a war criminal of the Chinese nation.
In addition to stumble in prisons in Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen may also stumble in prisons in mainland China. Once Tsai Ing-wen takes all her bets and detonates conflicts in the Taiwan Strait in the last two years of her reign, she is likely to become a war criminal of the Chinese nation. What awaits her will be the most severe trial from the mainland.
66-year-old Tsai Ing-wen will not ignore her "fate after her death". If nothing unexpected happens, she should be able to see the day when the motherland is reunited.
But what identity she will witness history at that time will ultimately depend on herself and what she says and does next.
"Anti-China Protection Taiwan" card is no longer a life-saving symbol
According to the previous behavioral logic of the DPP, as long as the banner of "Anti-China Protection Taiwan Protection Taiwan" is held high and the internal conflicts continue to transfer through party-sectarian and cross-strait conflicts, there will be a chance to turn the tables.
So, is there any possibility of a turnaround this time in the DPP?
In fact, the DPP has been doing this for the past 30 years. The Democratic Progressive Party, founded in 1986, was originally just an "opposition" who was good at engaging in street movements. Manipulating public opinion and creating confrontation is its way of survival.
At the beginning of its establishment, the DPP raised the banner of "inhabitants' self-determination" and declared in the party platform that "the future of Taiwan should be jointly decided by all residents of Taiwan in a free, democratic, universal, fair and equal way."
This has had considerable attraction for islanders who yearn for freedom, prosperity and strength after experiencing the brutal Japanese colonial rule and the dark clouds of white terrorism of the Kuomintang. As a result, the DPP has emerged rapidly.
In fact, Lee Teng-hui also took this path, but the Lee-style "Taiwan independence route" is more radical. A sensational Taiwan Strait crisis almost pushed Taiwan into war, which made the United States helpless and made the Taiwanese people feel scared.
So in 2000, Chen Shui-bian of the DPP defeated the Kuomintang opponent and successfully took office. After Chen came to power, he turned to the "gradual Taiwan independence" route, which won a certain amount of living space for the DPP. But with the changes in the world situation, this road is getting worse and worse. After the outbreak of
9·11 incident, China and the United States shook hands and made peace due to anti-terrorism, and cooperation was greater than confrontation. Under this general background, engaging in "Taiwan independence" is obviously a destruction of the overall situation and is not pleasing to you on all sides. In addition, Chen Zhitai's political achievements are magnificent, and he eventually lost to Ma Ying-jeou from the Kuomintang, which was also a historical choice.
Ma Ying-jeou admitted that " 1992 Consensus " and made great contributions to improving cross-strait relations. He deserved to win more applause, but why did the Kuomintang lose to the Democratic Progressive Party later?
is actually related to the changes in in Sino-US relations. Since 2010, with the openness of China-US strategic competition, Sino-US relations have also undergone fundamental changes. After the United States returned to the Asia-Pacific region to win over allies to encircle China and constantly exaggerated the "China threat theory", Taiwanese society also became wary of the mainland.
Therefore, Tsai Ing-wen defeated the Kuomintang and returned to power under the banner of "anti-China and Taiwan", which was a reasonable explanation. In recent years, Tsai Ing-wen’s ability to remain tenacious under various pressures is actually related to this.
belongs to the era of the Democratic Progressive Party, and it is time to end
Now that the world is changing, the game power of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has undergone fundamental changes.
The reason why Tsai Ing-wen had a market for engaging in "gradual Taiwan independence" was because there were still some firm "Taiwan independence" elements in Taiwan society. . Some centrists support the DPP because they have received toxic propaganda and education for a long time, lack objective understanding of the strength and current situation of the mainland, and have fantasies about the United States.
But after the United States abandoned Afghanistan , and China's attitude towards the United States became increasingly tough, this fantasy of the Taiwanese people is gradually shattering.
Especially after the Russian-Ukrainian War, Taiwanese people are increasingly worried about their own destiny. If Tsai Ing-wen continues to support her in confronting the mainland and worsens the situation, the result is likely to trigger a war in the Taiwan Strait. Will the United States fight for Taiwan then?
In several polls conducted this year, fewer and fewer people believe that the United States will "assist in defense" Taiwan. Since no one believes that the United States will send troops to Taiwan, then what will Taiwan use to fight against the mainland? Are those who verbally support the DPP really willing to go to the battlefield with their own wealth, lives and the safety of their descendants?
In a poll released by the Taiwan International Strategic Society and the International Research Society in March, as many as 77.3% of the people supported peaceful exchanges between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and only 16.1% supported the DPP's "anti-China and Taiwan" strategy.
Peace in the Taiwan Strait has become the general trend, and confrontation is a dead end, which is an obvious ending. Tsai Ing-wen, who lost public opinion, continued to play the "anti-China and Taiwan" card, which will only accelerate her demise.
So, no matter what tricks Tsai Ing-wen can play, the era of the DPP is over. The living space of "Taiwan independence" politicians on the island in the future will only become smaller and smaller until they are destroyed. This is their historical destiny.
Not only the Democratic Progressive Party, but the Kuomintang is also the same. Previously, Zhu Lilun went to the United States to show his attention and publicly clamored for "anti-unification", but it turned out to be a farce.
This is the power of public opinion. Whether it is Tsai Ing-wen, Zhu Lilun, or other political party leaders, the outcome that goes against public opinion will surely be the people's trial.
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