has only more than ten days left before Taiwan’s 2020 election voting day. Judging from the 1221 Kaohsiung “Support South Korea” and “Stop South Korea” parade, the Kuomintang and the DPP have entered the stage of “ground troops” hand-to-hand combat, and both blue and green are strengthening mobilization. In this election competition of "Who is not hated", whether it is Han Kuo-yu or Tsai Ing-wen, they need to get at least 6.5 million votes to win.
(Photo/Han Yu Facebook)
1221 Kaohsiung's "Promotion of Korea" parade is the first time that Han Kuo-yu's poll "blocked" to show the momentum of the "army". "Korean fans" are still enthusiastic, in order to deal with the blow of ultra-low polls. On December 29, Han Kuo-yu had a momentum in Taichung, which claimed to be a "decisive battle between Taiwan" by 500,000 people. Then, on December 31, Kaohsiung New Year's Eve Gala, Tainan New Year's Day flag-raising, Taipei's momentum on January 9, and Kaohsiung's election night on January 10, rolling momentum was one after another. In the final decisive battle, the strategy of the Korean camp was to show the power of the ground forces and strengthen the "watermelon effect" (from the Taiwanese slang "watermelon depends on the big edge" in Taiwan, pointing to the more favorable side), allowing the Blue Army voters to return to the team, and urged wait-and-see voters to "submit South Korea with tears in their eyes".
2020 This election is basically a decisive battle between "hate Tsai Ing-wen" and "hate Han Kuo-yu". If the Blue Army voters who hate Tsai cannot accept Han Kuo-yu, they may "don't vote with tears" or vote for the third force in a rage; this phenomenon in the 2016 election was very obvious, which made Zhu Lilun lose 3 million votes, and only got 3.81 million votes (31.04%), and even the Blue Army's 5 million votes (nearly 40%) was not maintained.
Han Kuo-yu has a strong support for the military, public education, tourism and other groups, but the knowledge and economic blue parts were loose from the beginning. The last strategy of the Kuomintang is to build up the situation, transforming "tears and not vote" into "tears and voting", and let the group who "hate Tsai Ing-wen" vote for Han Kuo-yu.
If the Blues can base the base with the 5 million votes, it will be much easier to rush up. This is what the Korean camp calls for consolidation and expansion. The number of votes and votes of elected people in Taiwan in previous elections was 1996 Lee Teng-hui 5.81 million votes and 54%; in 2000, Chen Shui-bian 4.97 million votes and 39.30%; in 2004, Chen Shui-bian 6.46 million votes and 50.10%; in 2008, Ma Ying-jeou 7.65 million votes and 58.45%; in 2012, Ma Ying-jeou 6.89 million votes and 51.60%; in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen 6.89 million votes and 56.12%. In the 2020 election, the "Zhongsheng Election Association" recently announced the number of voters of 19.34 million. If the turnout rate is 70%, there will be 13.53 million votes, Song Chuyu will not be too much of an interference factor. Han Kuo-yu must get at least 6.5 million votes before he can be elected.
1221 builds momentum, "Supporting Korean" calls out 350,000 people, "Supporting Korean" calls out 500,000 people, "Supporting Korean" seems to have lost a piece. This is a powerful move of the Green Camp, and you must shout up the momentum even if you shout. The South Korean office found that the situation was wrong and immediately launched an attack the next morning. There was no one under the super long curtain in the "Stop Korea" parade. Han first posted a message on Facebook to criticize that "Stop Korea" was "the largest fig leaf in Taiwan's history of democracy." Later, in an interview, he mocked the other party for "480,000 people hiding under the laying" and counterattacking the opponent's "expanding wind". The two attacks in one day were mainly for the sake of fighting momentum and could not be compared by the opponent. It showed the importance of the "army ground troops" in the last 10 days of the decisive battle. Han Kuo-yu is stronger in building momentum and mobilizing than Tsai Ing-wen, which is the advantage of the Blues in the final stage.
Comparison of the number of people who were shooting the aerial shooting of the Korean march in support of South Korea and the Han Dynasty, Han Kuo-yu's camp pointed out that the Korean group used the "fig leaf" to fake it. (Photo/"Prussian Blue" Pink Special)
From the 1221 "Stop Korea" parade, I also saw the strategy of the Celtics. Kaohsiung is Han Kuo-yu's base camp, but he decided to run for 2020 less than 6 months after taking office, and Kaohsiung is also his weakness. Therefore, the DPP's strategy is to allow the "stop South Korea" to radiate from Kaohsiung, strengthen the lack of legitimacy of South Korea's run, and protect South Taiwan's votes.
In comparison, Han Kuo-yu insisted on Kaohsiung before the election, including the New Year's Eve and the night before the election, all of which were held in Kaohsiung. To let Kaohsiung people feel that he will benefit Kaohsiung and thus gain the understanding of Kaohsiung people. South Korea won 890,000 votes in the 2018 Kaohsiung Mayoral Election, which beat the Democratic Progressive Party Chen Chi-mai 150,000 votes; under the green camp operation, the possibility of South Korea getting another 890,000 votes in Kaohsiung in 2020 is not very high, and it is important to be able to stabilize and not collapse, so he cares so much about "stop South Korea".Especially if the "stop South Korea" is in power and he fails to win the election, there is also the possibility of being killed twice, which will be even more miserable.
The DPP tradition is to "weak the north and strong the south". The Blue Army believes that the south will win if it loses less. The DPP raised Kaohsiung's "stop Korean" as the main course, hoping to kill Han Yu from the north and the south. After the official launch of the "Stop Korea" on December 26, the blue and green showdown will heat up again. The South Korean camp is currently building momentum, while the DPP is working hard to break through South Korea's defense line in South Taiwan. In the final stage, there are many variables and it is difficult to make a conclusion on the winner or lose.
(This article was originally a China Review Press editorial, the original title is: The blue and green ground troops are only launched, it is not garbage time. The author is Lin Shuling, a commentator of China Review Press)
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