No matter how many polls or predictions the media has, the answer will be revealed soon.
Tomorrow, November 8th is the voting day of the midterm elections. The so-called midterm elections are 100 seats in the Federal Senate, 35 seats will be re-elected, and 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be re-elected, and 36 states will elect the next governor.
However, the final state voting results may take a few days to be announced, such as Arizona, Pennsylvania , Nevada, etc. If no candidate wins votes across the 50% threshold, Georgia state law will automatically enter the second round of voting (runoff), and the election results may not be clear until December.
Although the midterm elections have not ended yet, the retirement of the current House Speaker Perossi is a foregone conclusion. Who will take over may be something Perosi doesn't want to see.
House of Representatives seats, the Democratic Party currently has a majority of 221 seats, leading 212 seats in Republican , and is the House of Representatives Majority Party.
But the poll shows that the Republican Party has the opportunity to control 54 seats in the Senate, and the Democratic Party’s seats have dropped to 46 seats, breaking the situation where the two parties in the Senate are evenly matched.
This means that the Republicans will be the one who succeeds Perosi.
As of Monday, the total number of early voting in
In states that record data on the past three election cycles, early voting has been faster this year than in 2018. However, it is too early to judge whether the overall turnout will reach its 2018 level, as the voting model may have changed over the past few years.
Texas is still leading in early voting, with more than 5.4 million votes cast, followed by Florida 's 4.7 million, and California ranked third with 4.1 million early voting. Other states that voted enthusiastically include Georgia and North Carolina, with their early votes of more than 2.5 million and more than 2.1 million respectively. The number of early votes in the remaining states is less than 2 million.
The Justice Department also announced on Monday that it will monitor polling stations in 24 states across the country during Tuesday's midterm elections to ensure that it complies with federal laws related to voting rights.
The prediction of this year's voting results is currently roughly divided into the following four types:
5 seats in the federal senator and the voting results of more than a dozen federal representatives will determine who will win the majority of the Senate and House of Representatives. New York Times and Siena College's pre-election closure polls showed that voters support the Republicans to take down the majority of the House of Representatives, and voters are generally dissatisfied with the Biden- presidential administration. However, the shortcomings of Democratic congressmen with current advantages and some Republican candidates being too extreme are variables.
report pointed out that if voters are willing to accept Republican candidates on certain extreme lines, or decide that the current Democratic Congressman who performed well should be replaced, the chances of victory for the Republican Party will be greatly improved.
Currently, the Democratic Party and Republican House of Representatives seats are 222 seats vs. 213 seats. Most pre-election polls predict that the Republican Party will win the House majority, but to the end of the election, as long as the Senate majority remains, it "feels-like-a-win" for the Democratic Party. If the Democrats want to keep the Senate majority, the key to the decisive battle will be Pennsylvania, Joe, Arizona and Nevada. What is the result of the Senate election? The complete count of the vote may not be obtained on the evening of the 8th, but if the results of the votes in Ohio , Wisconsin, and North Carolina show five or five waves, the Democratic seats on several House constituencies on the East Coast will also stabilize, and the Democratic camp will be optimistic about the election results.
If the Republican Party's strength is underestimated in the polls, the result of this midterm election will be that the Republican Party will be fully dominating and a complete victory. The New York Times analyzed that it is not surprising that the Republican Party has set off a "red wave", because Biden's satisfaction in its administration has always been stuck at around 40%, which is lower or similar to the satisfaction of the administration in the first midterm elections since several former presidents came to power, including the former president Trump 2018 midterm elections, former President Clinton 1994 midterm elections, and former President Obama 2010 midterm elections. In all three midterm elections, the opposition added at least 40 seats in the House.
The New York Times analyzed that when the political atmosphere in the United States is becoming polarized, some people may think that the Republican Party is unlikely to win an overwhelming victory, but in the Virginia gubernatorial election last November, the Republican candidates led by 2% of the votes, reflecting the opportunity of the "red tide" to replicate all over the country. Once the free voters finally decide to vote for the Republican Party and use the votes to score Biden's performance in their policy, rather than considering the conditions for Democratic candidates in each constituency, a "red wave" may appear.
New York Times analyzed that the hypothesis that the Democratic Party’s sudden rise and the majority of the Senate and House of Representatives is unlikely to happen. Since the poll was launched, when previous presidents' satisfaction with the administration has dropped below 50%, there has been no precedent for the ruling party to increase the House of Representatives in midterm elections.
No matter how the polls predict, the editor hopes that people with the right to vote, Don’t forget to vote!
Although the turnout rate of Chinese people has increased significantly in recent years, it is still "dumb" compared to other ethnic groups. To change our voice and change the living environment of the next generation, it requires the efforts of each of us Chinese!
Look at the efforts of other ethnic groups, don’t hesitate and vote! Everything will be decided on November 8th!
(The voting start time in each state is not uniform, but it basically starts from 6:00 to 8:00 in the morning and the end time is between 7:00 and 8:00 in the evening. Please check the local voting site information before voting.)