The most embarrassing thing about Vietnam is that it is clearly an Eastern country in the Chinese cultural circle, but it always wants to be brothers with Western countries . So, will Vietnam, which is heading west, become the next Japan that once flourishes? Or is the next Ukraine that has fallen apart?
This seems to be an incredible problem. After all, not everyone has the ability to predict the future, but judging from Vietnam's various "deviant" operations, the future ending seems self-evident.
The reason why Vietnam has embarked on the "no return" of 's complete westernization of is closely related to Vietnam's "maverick" historical development trajectory.
Episode 0 After the dust settled in 1885, France, which was "unwinning", took away Vietnam's sovereignty from the Qing Dynasty. The French colonists then "remained further" and colonized the Cambodian controlled by Vietnam and the Siam controlled by Laos , with the name "French Indochina".
Compared with India, where civilization is frequently covered by waves of foreign conquerors, Vietnam, as a country in the Chinese cultural circle, not only has a long history, but also has a consistent trajectory of civilization and has a strong national self-esteem. Therefore, when the historical development path was brutally cut off by the French colonists, the impact Vietnam was subject to can be imagined.
In fact, not only Vietnam, but also all Eastern countries in the Chinese cultural circle, almost all cannot escape the barbaric invasion of Western powers. For example, China, it can be said that the historical development path has been ruthlessly rewritten by Western powers. But the problem is that after more than a century of arduous exploration and struggle, China finally overthrew the three mountains of imperialism, feudalism and bureaucratic capitalism, and established a new China where the people are masters of their own. Vietnam could only wait in the tragic fate of the colony, and it was not until that it saw the dawn of independence after World War II.
In Jingyeshi's opinion, being too miniature is the fundamental reason why Vietnam finds it difficult for it to get rid of being colonized by Western powers. And this greatest national condition also destined that Vietnam's "going westward" today can only be a foolish self-deception.
In fact, in order to change the embarrassing status quo of insignificant size, Vietnam has been working towards the rise of a great power since it broke free from the rule of Nanhan in 937. For more than 800 years, Vietnam has been using the Honghe Plain as its base and has continuously expanded southward along the coastline. After destroying Champa, it seized the Mekong Delta from Cambodia, and its comprehensive national strength has further strengthened.
Not only that, Vietnam also crossed the Changshan Mountains of and headed westward, engaged in fierce competition for power with Siam and other Indochina Peninsula , and built a mini vassal tribute system with Vietnam as the core, known as the "Southern Heaven Little China".
However, the Indochina Peninsula is born with a mini-geographic environment, and the Central Plains dynasty is under the pressure of Mount Tai, so Vietnam cannot tolerate the invasion of north and north. Therefore, despite its hard work, Vietnam can only guard one acre of three-point land on the Indochina Peninsula.
It can be said that the national conditions of a small country and few people have become the fundamental reason for the tragedy of Vietnam and have continued to this day.
Because the barbaric invasion of French colonists interrupted Vietnam's historical development process, the development trajectory of modern Vietnam was entirely determined by France, which was the initial motivation for Vietnam to "go all the way west".
Of course, it is the country called the United States that really made Vietnam determined to overcome all difficulties to embrace the West.
Episode 0 After the outbreak of World War II, Japan took advantage of the fall of France and barbaricly seized Indochina. Vietnam, which had not yet broken free from French colonial rule, was again barbaric enslaved by Japanese imperialism.
The barbaric expansion of Japanese imperialism, especially the provocation of the Pacific War, allowed the United States to legitimately join the anti-fascist alliance and became a strong backing for the Ho Chi Minh anti-Japanese armed forces.
Although Ho Chi Minh at that time was the leader of the Indochina Communist Party, it should theoretically be closer to the Soviet Union.But as a staunch nationalist, Ho Chi Minh was not favored by Stalin from the beginning, and was even defined by Stalin as "Tito on the Indochina Peninsula". Therefore, during the days of persisting in the anti-French struggle, Ho Chi Minh was closer to our country.
Although during World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union were both members of the anti-fascist alliance and stood on the same front as Ho Chi Minh, the money belongs to the United States and the weapons are good for the United States. Ho Chi Minh couldn't help but want to embrace the United States. So on the eve of the unconditional surrender of Japanese imperialism, Ho Chi Minh launched the " August Revolution " and established the " Democratic Republic of Vietnam , referred to as " North Vietnam ", Ho Chi Minh was impatient to embark on the American-style "democracy".
But for the strategic need to dominate the world, the United States first supported China and Britain to surrender in north and south of Vietnam, and then supported the French colonists to make a comeback, giving Ho Chi Minh a few blows. In desperation, Ho Chi Minh began to launch an arduous war against France with his back on New China.
After Stalin's death, the Soviet Union began to vigorously aid North Vietnam in order to prevent the Indochina Peninsula from becoming the frontier of the United States' anti-Soviet Republic. Ho Chi Minh had to give up his efforts to go west until his sudden death in 1969.
After Ho Chi Minh's death, the Le Duan government of North Vietnam was determined not to get along with the evil between China and the Soviet Union, and then defected to the Soviet Union, and with the support of the Soviet Union, he began to unify Vietnam and rebuild the "Indochina Federation". So 's self-defense counterattack against Vietnam was about to break out, and Vietnam was beaten back to before liberation overnight.
1986 After the death of Li Duan , although the Sino-Vietnam border was still filled with smoke, Vietnam has opened a new era of "innovation and opening up". Specifically, it is to take northern neighbors as its teacher to achieve common prosperity through opening up to the outside world.
It should be said that because the historical trajectory is highly similar and the customs and humanities are quite similar, Vietnam is still a shortcut to the emergence of a new force by touching China. But the problem is that as we learn, Vietnam began to go astray and returned to the road of "going westward".
Vietnam's change of course is in addition to the tradition of Vietnam going west since the French colonial era. The more important reason is that Japan, not far away, has achieved unprecedented success.
In Vietnam's view, compared with China, the behemoth, Japan, which has a slightly larger land area and a slightly larger population, has more places to learn.
More importantly, as a country in the Chinese cultural circle, Japan has achieved unprecedented success through the method of " leaving Asia and entering Europe ", and even jumped into the imperialist sequence.
However, although Vietnam is the same size as Japan, it is completely different. On the one hand, as an island country, Japan not only has a relatively independent and secure national environment, but also has a large area of marine territory. This is something that Vietnam, as a small country on the mainland, is beyond the reach of. Although Vietnam has worked overtime to grab islands and reefs in the South China Sea, it has not increased its territory and expanded its depth, but has left itself with a chronic disease of fear.
On the other hand, Japan escaped the misfortune of being completely colonized because of its location, and soon launched the Meiji Restoration . In just a few decades, it defeated the Qing Dynasty and the Tsarist Russian Empire, achieving a complete transformation.
Although he was beaten by the anti-fascist alliance during World War II, his long-term plunder and strong technical accumulation made Japan "glory a little sunshine" after the war. Under the control of the United States, Japan quickly recovered with the help of the Korean War and achieved economic revival with the industrial transfer of developed countries. In 1968, it surpassed the Federal Republic of Germany to become the second largest in the capitalist camp in the world.
In contrast, Vietnam was forced to seize the plunder during the French colonial period. After World War II, it experienced the struggles of the Anti-French War, the Anti-US War and the Sino-Vietnamese War. Not only did it not have original accumulation, it also repeatedly missed the historical opportunities of emerging forces, and it was even worse than " Asian Four Little Dragons " and " Asian Four Little Tigers ".
Of course, in the view of Jingyeshi, the most fundamental reason why Vietnam is difficult to become Japan is that as a small country, Vietnam does not have the "good luck" that Japan can be defeated and occupied by the United States.For Vietnam, the victory of the War of Resistance Against the United States may have given Vietnam the right to be on par with the United States, but it makes it impossible for Vietnam to be regarded as a collusion by the United States like Japan and South Korea. This also means that Vietnam has missed many possibilities brought by the United States. As a superpower that stands out, if it cannot be favored by the United States, Vietnam's "going westward" will not be successful.
Therefore, Vietnam will never become the next Japan, but it will easily become the next Ukraine.
In the view of Jingyeshi, Vietnam's situation cannot be said to be very similar to Ukraine, it can only be said to be exactly the same. When Ukraine was torn and tortured by the east and west, Vietnam was also in pain because of the north and south.
From today's perspective, France's more than 60 years of colonization of Vietnam not only injected Vietnam with the gene of "going westward", laying the foundation for Vietnam's so-called "Indochina Federation", but also making Vietnam's north and south different, laying the root of disaster for the conflict between the north and south in Vietnam today.
plus the 30-year rift between the War of Resistance Against France and the War of Resistance Against the United States. Even though Vietnam achieved the unification of the north and the south in 1975, it could never be able to bridge the rift between the north and the south. After all, with the support of Western powers, , the southern has long pursued the capitalist line, which is fundamentally inconsistent with the socialist path in the north. What is even more embarrassing is that the size of the north and the south is roughly the same. Even if the political unification is achieved, they are essentially two people of equal proportion.
This is the direct consequence of the US-Soviet battle for hegemony after World War II. The Korean Peninsula is also sad. However, compared with the north-south confrontation between North and South Korea, Vietnam achieved north-south unification with the support of the Soviet Union.
This unification under the suppression of power has made Vietnam face more embarrassing than Ukraine. After all, Ukraine only uses the Dnieper River as the boundary, with the left bank facing Russia and the right bank facing Europe. Although the momentum is the same as water and fire, there is no opposition to ideological . However, Vietnam has to do everything in order to balance the forces between the north and the south, and finally launched the " three-horse harem " balance model of "South Prime Minister, North Secretary, and Central Chairman".
However, with the deepening of "innovation and opening up", Vietnam's economy made a stunning success, and the southern forces inevitably came from behind and became the main force of Vietnam, which in turn deeply affected Vietnam's foreign relations.
So, we were surprised to find that the United States and Vietnam, which were once irreconcilable, became half-brothers in the blink of an eye. This is not Vietnam's "changing mind", but a major victory for the southern forces.
The rise of the south undoubtedly made the north, which is the center of politics, feel uncomfortable, and the destruction of the balance between the north and the south has further highlighted the contradiction between the north and the south of Vietnam, and thus became a situation of "dividing it into two" in Ukraine.
So, in the face of the increasingly approaching danger, how did Vietnam do it? Of course, we are trying to maintain balance, adhere to the socialist line politically, and continue to develop the economy.
But the problem is that Vietnam's unworthy size, once integrated into the international market, will inevitably be entangled and has no autonomy at all. When Western countries accept Vietnam to join the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Zone Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, they add a series of political conditions, such as improving human rights, freedom of speech, and implementing democracy.
Faced with the unreasonable demands of Western countries, Vietnam did not choose to fight hard, after all, it was powerless. Therefore, we can only choose to cater to a series of reforms to the political system.
For example, in the 2013 Constitutional Amendment Recommendation, it proposed to implement democratization, multi-party system, , military de-partyization, separation of powers, etc.; the first national election was implemented in 2016; in 2019, the new " Labor Law " allowed the establishment of Western-style trade unions or even independent trade unions; in 2020, the lifelong system of civil servants was abolished; in 2021, universal suffrage began to be implemented, etc., step by step, making yourself more "democratic".
It can be said that in order to cater to the West, although Vietnam has not been violently impacted by the ideology waves many times like Ukraine, this "self-revolution"-style reform not only makes the public beasts climax, but only leaves Vietnam with endless hidden dangers, which is a disaster that is more terrible than the color revolution.
plus Vietnam's geographical location is the same as Ukraine, and it is also the frontier of a great power against the United States and other Western countries. Therefore, if Vietnam dares to step beyond the line, especially to please the West to actively back-spin the northern neighbors and make a vote, what is waiting for Vietnam is the tragic fate of Ukraine's collapse.
Judging from Vietnam's performance today, Vietnam seems to have no intention of becoming Ukraine. After all, it has experienced too many "baptisms" of war, and Vietnam cherishes peace and development extremely. Moreover, Vietnam is well aware of the nature of the United States' "falling off at critical moments and slaughtering accomplices at critical moments."
More importantly, the existence of ASEAN gives us a strong buffer between us and Vietnam, and is destined that Vietnam will not become a "sandwich" between China and the United States like Ukraine becomes the "sandwich" between NATO and Russia.
But the existence of the South China Sea issue is ultimately the biggest crux of the Chinese and Vietnam. After all, our strength is thousands of miles a day. As a country that steals the most islands and reefs in the South China Sea, Vietnam cannot voluntarily give up, so despite ASEAN's centralized buffer, future confrontation will surely occur.
So, maybe Vietnam just wants to be the next Japan, but it is likely to become "Asian Ukraine".
In summary, in this world, there are countless countries that go westward, that is, "leaving Asia and entering Europe", such as Russia, Japan, such as , Türkiye, , and South Korea. But compared with Russia, which has been working hard for 320 years, Vietnam is too small; compared with Japan, which has been working hard for 160 years, Vietnam has too few opportunities; compared with Turkey, which has been working hard for 100 years, Vietnam has too poor location; compared with South Korea, which has been working hard for 70 years, Vietnam started too late.
So, Vietnam, which is catching up, wants to achieve the so-called national rejuvenation in a more radical way. This is an inevitable choice after the historical process was interrupted by barbarity. However, if Vietnam does not seek the return of its own nation but ignores the national conditions and is determined to approach the West, perhaps Vietnam can achieve outstanding results at the moment, but Vietnam in the future will surely be in pain.
has many omissions, please correct me.
I am Jingyeshi. Looking forward to your attention.
#Telebrity Creation Challenge#
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-