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Source: Block Impression
Original title: 7 things that will happen in the currency circle in the next 5 years
If you want to ask whether Bitcoin can break a new high in the next 3 months, many people may not be able to draw a conclusion, but if you want to ask whether Bitcoin can break a new high in the next 5 years, many people can be 100% sure that it is OK. In some things, the long-term development direction is clearer than in the short term. The author of
below is a Bitcoin enthusiast who has been deeply involved in the currency circle for many years. Based on years of full-time research experience, based on macroeconomic theory and new technology application logic, he made 7 predictions on the development of the currency circle from 2020 to 2025.
prediction 1: In the early 2020s, the popularity of Bitcoin will explode
It is not easy to accept the native form of Bitcoin, especially in the retail industry.
Although the current Bitcoin payment method is not much different from mobile NFC, compared with similar payment apps, Bitcoin payment still has the problem of being too slow and too expensive. In addition, retail store owners must have a new set of equipment equipped, similar to the existing point-of-sale (POS) system, and be clear about how this set of equipment is used.
At first glance, these extra efforts are not worth it, and more importantly, many Bitcoin payers start for novelty rather than convenience.
Even so, BitPay, one of the Bitcoin payment processors, recently released data: In 2019, the company was processing cryptocurrency transactions worth more than $1 billion. Similarly, Coinbase Commerce handles $135 million in cryptocurrency transactions from thousands of merchants, a 600% increase from the previous year. Although
, compared with the £3.7 trillion processing volume of credit card companies in 2018, the popularity of Bitcoin at this stage is still too small. However, many retail businesses (house-known businesses like Subway, Burger King and KFC ) have begun trying to accept Bitcoin payments, and in 2020 we will see a more important, more well-funded Bitcoin payment project – driven by Starbucks and its partner Bakkt.
's goal is that by July 2020, Starbucks' 30,000 stores will be able to directly accept Bitcoin payments through the Bakkt app.
Bakkt is also supported by Microsoft and InterContinental Exchange, and if this trial is successful – I believe it will – it will be inevitable that other retailers will launch similar services quickly and actively. After all, no one wants to be left behind.
prediction 2: Bitcoin’s dominance will return to the level before IC0
For this, many people have tacitly understood it.
There is no doubt that most altcoins are meaningless, deceptive, or some kind and redundant existence.
out of the 5089 tokens listed on Coinmarketcap, more than 5050 do not need to exist. No matter how strict it is, including Bitcoin, there are only 5 or 6 useful ones.
may be somewhat controversial about this bold view, but in fact, it is indeed becoming increasingly difficult for many people to understand why different tokens are needed in different applications? Wouldn't it be easier, easier, and more logical to use just one currency?
After all, in the real world, we already have multiple traditional legal forms of global currencies (USD, GBP, Euro, etc.) and we have to constantly recalculate in our minds to figure out the numbers that match our commonly used currencies.
virtual world, there is no need to retake this path. Now, it's time to simplify. The reason why
has this idea is not to deliberately "depreciate" certain projects. Indeed, there may be faster and more anonymous systems to be generated, but Bitcoin has become the global reserve currency of the cryptocurrency world, and it has become a measure of value for measuring and obtaining everything.
Before this situation changes—the industry has not taken any practical action yet—this position will not be threatened.Therefore, over time, Bitcoin’s dominance will increase further and its importance will increase, not diminish.
is for the sake of full disclosure, and I have to say that my portfolio does contain about 18 different currencies - which is far beyond what I just said. Why does
do this? While I am sure that Bitcoin’s status will continue to strengthen, I cannot be sure which alternatives will have the opportunity to flourish, which is a simple hedging and diversification question.
prediction 3: Lightning Network will change everything
Many people were skeptical of Lightning Network at the beginning.
Most skeptics have not experienced it or understood it in depth. From an outsider's perspective, this is a complex and difficult project, and although it was only put into use in early 2018, it is still being developed and improved, meaning that anyone can use it technically as long as the risk points are clear.
weighs all possibilities and Lightning Network will eventually succeed. Based on this, the next generation of wallets and payment mechanisms will use it as the basis for operations. In this case, Bitcoin will quickly move from store of value to medium of transaction, or, more accurately, a better version between store of value and medium of transaction.
, as discussed above, will be eliminated as many altcoins demands will be eliminated. This will not happen immediately, and it will take one to three years.
prediction 4: Facebook Libra will not appear
Many people are talking about Facebook's "crypto" currency Libra, saying that it is the "entry ramp" of Bitcoin and it is also a way to increase awareness.
Personally think it is not as valuable as Bitcoin, and Facebook may try to limit or even cut off access between the two. Regardless, Bitcoin will continue to be prevalent, and Libra will not appear, at least not in the way originally envisioned.
First of all, it is impossible for any government to transfer any part of its monetary policy to private enterprises.
Secondly, Libra needs to be fully licensed within the commercial bank operating system, because by definition it is a centralized corporate system, just like a bank. This situation is accompanied by too many stakes, and even if it happens, it will take years to implement it.
Third, Facebook has serious credibility problems. Even if it tries to solve this problem by getting other companies involved and forming an independent consortium, the damage it will bring will be even higher for early collaborators. So we also see that the first batch of companies that cooperated - Mastercard, Visa, Paypal, Stripe, eBay and several others - have withdrawn.
Libra may exist in the form of a limited central payment processor, similar to Paypal, or use its own services as a basis for instant payments in traditional fiat currencies.
However, Libra at this time is not considered a real cryptocurrency and will not have any impact on Bitcoin.
prediction 5: US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve Bitcoin ETF
US SEC is notoriously slow in approving Bitcoin ETFs. The reason they give is that there are problems such as fraud, market manipulation, etc. However, elsewhere in the world, cryptocurrency ETFs already exist.
After that, the SEC delayed the decision again and again until there was no delay, and finally sent a rejection letter. But I personally think that this situation is about to end. Although 2020 may not happen, this moment will not be far away.
reality is that Bakkt's storage solutions and Grayscale's Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) have made institutional investment possible. ETFs provide additional protection for organizations that want to invest in this field but don’t want to take any risks in wallets and storage, which transfers this demand to product hosting.
Once an ETF is approved, it will bring a series of approvals, and this bill will also open the door for institutional investment.
Forecast Six: Bitcoin will be seen as a store of value and safe haven
Many people claim that Bitcoin is a safe haven for the negative market environment and turbulent economy . Although it is too early to make a conclusion, some people struggling in dire economies (Venezuela is the most obvious example) will indeed exchange some fiat currency for Bitcoin.
may be pointed out that they may be willing to exchange for gold, but for ordinary people, it is neither easy nor cheap. Therefore, Bitcoin is still an option at your fingertips.
"In the coming year, this will be more and more, especially when those predictions of financial crisis become reality (of course, I hope it won't come true).
In addition, this will happen first at the individual level rather than the institutional level. But as time goes by, institutions will gradually participate as Bitcoin continues to grow security and popularity continue to grow.
Forecast 7: Bitcoin will be increasingly used for charity
This doesn't seem to be a prediction, because some charities have already begun to accept Bitcoin around last year.
Royal National Lifeboat Institute (RNLI), UNICEF (Unicef), Water Project and African Education (Teach) Institutions like Africa) have already started doing this. My point is simple, this situation will increase and become more common in the future.
Until now, the cost of sorting, sending, and transferring donations from around the world has been expensive, and sometimes people will question the acquisition and flow of funds. Bitcoin provides enough transparency to see where these funds go, thereby greatly reducing waste and fraud.
Therefore, the demand for Bitcoin for charitable donations will increase in the future. It is important to understand this because according to charitynavi Data from Gator, global charitable donations reached $410 billion in 2017, and this volume is still rising.
Conclusion
cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly, and funds, resources and expertise are entering this field in a way that has never been seen since the early days of the Internet.
Of course, this does not necessarily mean it will succeed, and there are countless problems to be solved. But one thing is certain that the industry will become very interesting in the next few years and is worth everyone's expectations.
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