In November 2021, the United States is in elections again.
On November 2, local time, many places in the United States ushered in the "Non-year Election" election. Americans need to vote for governors in two states, mayors in multiple cities, and a large number of local officials.
Although this election is not as eye-catching as the presidential election, it is not unimportant. "U.S. President Biden has been in power for nearly a year, and this series of elections can be regarded as a test of the national political ecology environment." CNN wrote an article.
However, judging from the election results, the Democratic Party may not be able to laugh. The Democrats unexpectedly lost in the Virginia election, and the New Jersey election situation was anxious, and finally narrowly defeated the Republican with a narrow advantage. Democrats pointed out that the result of this election is like a "late-night alarm". Unless Biden and other Democratic leaders can effectively resolve voter dissatisfaction, the Democrats will inevitably lose a majority of their seats in the midterm elections.
"Mixed" two-state elections
In this year's election, only Virginia and New Jersey were re-elected.
In fact, perhaps it is precisely because of the "uniqueness" of election times that their importance is highlighted. The elections in both states are one year after the presidential election and the year before the midterm elections. CNN notes that these two elections can therefore be seen as a preliminary assessment of Biden's administration and a test of the political environment of future midterm elections.
But in this answer, the Democratic Party did not perform as strong as it expected.
The Democrats first lost Virginia. Republican gubernatorial candidate and political newcomer Yang Jin defeated Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Democratic veteran McAuliffe, becoming the first Republican to win the state's gubernatorial election since 2009.
"Yang Jin's victory gave Biden a blow." CBS of the United States commented.
On November 3, 2021 local time, Republican gubernatorial candidate Yang Jin won the US Virginia gubernatorial election. Picture/IC photo
without comparison, there is no harm. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden defeated former US President Trump by 10 percentage points and won Virginia. McAuliffe also took the lead in the polls throughout the summer of this year, but lost in the official election. “Mcóliffe’s failure is shocking,” Bloomberg noted.
reviews the two's campaign performance, AP pointed out that Yang Jin's victory may be partly due to his cracking of the "password" associated with Trump. This is Yangjin's first campaign for office, and he neither completely "embraces" Trump and refuses to condemn the former president who is still popular among the Republican Party. "Yangjin showed Republicans the potential direction for the 'post-Trump' era, and more people may adopt similar strategies in the future."
"Yang Jin's strategy is relatively smart." Liu Weidong, a researcher at the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Beijing News reporter that Trump himself is extremely controversial in the United States, but he maintains a great influence within the Republican Party. Under the influence of two factors, no matter how he expresses his opinion on Trump, he will inevitably offend the other side. Therefore, the better method is to "get close and get along" and then approach local voters with his own policy program. However, the elections of each state have their own particularity, and it is hard to say that Yangjin's strategy has universal promotion significance within the Republican Party.
After losing one inning first, the Democrats narrowly saved New Jersey.
On November 3 local time, New Jersey's current governor and Democratic candidate Murphy won the election with a slight advantage and was re-election. He also became the first Democrat to be re-elected as governor of the state in 44 years.
The Democratic Party finally "has a sigh of relief". " New York Times " pointed out that, however, this election competition has also given Republicans hope that they can further consolidate the voter base in the state in the future.
Overall observation of the elections of the two states. Wang Yong, professor at the School of International Relations at Peking University and director of the Center for American Studies, said in an interview with a reporter from the Beijing News that although the Democratic Party’s results are one win and one loss, in terms of vote count comparison, the votes between the two elections were very close, and there was no overwhelming victory. The tug-of-war between the two sides was obvious, which also reflects to a certain extent the continued division of the American political order.
In addition to the two state elections, there are many cities in the United States who hold mayoral elections. Judging from the election results, it is worth mentioning that the election of some minority candidates has created the city's election history.
In Boston , Chinese mayor candidate Wu Mi became the first female mayor of minority in the history of the capital of Massachusetts . Brooklyn District Mayor Eric Adams won the mayoral election and became the second African-American mayor in New York City's history. Kansas City, Kansas, Central America and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania have also welcomed the first African-American mayor.
is an "outlier" outside the election cycle
In fact, 2021 is not the usual "election year" of the United States.
The United States holds presidential elections every four years, and midterm elections are held during the presidential term, and most members of the U.S. Congress will be re-elected in the midterm elections. This means that the usual election years in the United States are even years.
However, elections in 50 states across the United States are not "consistent with the election cycle". Among them, 11 states will hold elections during the presidential election year, 36 states will re-elect in the midterm elections, and 5 states will hold elections in odd years. (Note: New Hampshire and Vermont both serve two years, so they will be re-elected in the general election year and the midterm election year.)
"non-election year" election and its importance. /Social media screenshot
Election times of states differ from each other, mainly related to historical reasons. U.S. policy analyst Maresa Strano pointed out that until the late 19th century, election times in U.S. states vary greatly. In 1872, the U.S. Congress standardized the House election agenda to align with the presidential election. Most states believed that synchronizing the election cycle was the most cost-effective, but some states placed themselves out of the cycle at that time for other reasons such as avoiding regulation, seeking independence, and racial issues.
After this, the states experienced back and forth adjustments of the law, and the term of office was extended and shortened, which gradually formed the well-known election tradition.
In addition, occasional factors can also lead to elections in "non-election year". Wang Yong said that in addition to historical reasons, if the local leader dies or other problems occur, resulting in vacancies in the position, by-elections will also occur.
"Warning bell" sounded in advance
"After experiencing unexpected failures, the Democratic Party sounded the alarm for the 2022 midterm elections." The New York Times wrote an article.
On November 3 local time, a large number of Democrats begged Biden and other Democratic lawmakers to improve the quality of people's lives. They pointed out that it is these problems that plague their candidates.
election results reflect voters' sentiment. The New York Times pointed out that the Democratic Party’s setbacks mean voters are tired of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and are angry at the surge in prices and shortages.
Wang Yong believes that in the 30 years of economic globalization , the United States has also accumulated contradictions while developing, and the social structure has undergone tremendous changes. One of the important characteristics is that the gap between the rich and the poor is too large. The new crown epidemic not only further impacted the U.S. economy , but also triggered a fierce conflict of values. After Biden took office, these situations have not improved significantly, and his approval rating has been falling again and again. The choices made by voters are also venting their dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s rule.
In addition, voters may want to put pressure on the Democratic Party. Liu Weidong believes that voters have high expectations for those in power. If the ruling party cannot meet their needs well, voters tend to put some pressure on the current government, hoping that they will improve in their future governance.
experienced an unexpected defeat, and the Democrats sounded the alarm for 2022./Social media screenshot
"For the Democrats, this is a 'fair' signal," the Associated Press pointed out.
Many Democrats say that unless Biden and other Democrats address voter dissatisfaction and respond to voter concerns, Democrats will certainly lose their majority in the midterm elections.
Biden is also trying to make assurances to voters.
Faced with the election results, Biden told reporters on White House , "Voters hope we can do things well." He is pushing the Democrats to end a month-long deadlock on two domestic agendas, one of the framework for a spending package totaling $1.75 trillion and the other of a $1 trillion infrastructure project. Biden added, "We must come up with tangible results to change the living standards of voters and give them room to breathe."
There is still a whole year left before the midterm elections, and the Democratic prospects are not completely pessimistic. The Associated Press pointed out that the results of this election are just to provide some possible clues for next year's midterm elections. The two major factors that drag down the Democratic Party are the COVID-19 pandemic and the supply chain issues that have led to rising prices. Most forecasts for Wall Street say the U.S. economy will grow strongly next year. Therefore, all of these situations may improve over the coming year.
However, as for next year's midterm elections, it is foreseeable that the two parties will start a fierce battle. Wang Yong said that this midterm election is of great significance to the future operation of the US government. Although the Democrats are currently leading the congressional seats, judging from historical data, it is easy for the ruling party to lose a majority of the congressional seats in the midterm elections, and Biden's too low poll support rate is also exacerbating this possibility.
"Once the Democratic Party loses its majority, the Biden administration may enter a 'lame duck' state early, and his governance philosophy will be more difficult to implement, which will have a great impact on the US economy, politics, society and foreign relations." Wang Yong said.
Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi
Editor Fan Yijing Proofreading Wu Xingfa
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-