Xinhua News Agency Beijing, April 17th. In the global fight against the new crown epidemic, some countries and regions have been unable to find an ideal strategy to control the epidemic, coupled with complex factors such as economic downturn, Omickron strain pathogenicity is weaker than previous strains and fatigue mentality in the fight against the epidemic, and have successively cancelled strict control measures such as mask orders, isolating infected people, and tracking close contacts. Except for strengthening vaccination, no other prevention and control measures have been taken.
However, the global epidemic is still operating at a high level. The high contagion and concealment of the Omickron strain has increased the difficulty of prevention and control, and the death toll in some areas has peaked again. The new wave of epidemic has also had a serious impact on the economic and social life of many countries. Experts also warn that humans still do not fully understand the new coronavirus and cannot predict how the virus will evolve.
This is the trend of daily increase in new coronavirus deaths in the United States released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on April 16, 2022. (Photo source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website)
Global deaths continue to be high
April 1, the World Health Organization issued a statement after judging the latest epidemic situation. After deciding on the latest epidemic situation, it announced that the new crown pandemic continues to constitute a "public health emergency of international concern" . One day later, WHO data showed that the new crown epidemic broke through another important node: has accumulated more than 500 million confirmed cases in and more than 6.19 million deaths.
Compared with the Omickron strain just discovered in November last year, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide increased by more than 250 million, while the number of deaths in increased by more than 1 million, which is equivalent to erasing the population of a medium-sized city from the earth in half a year. In the above statement, the WHO wrote: "The new coronavirus continues to cause high levels of disease and death, especially among vulnerable people."
Reading the WHO's recent weekly epidemic report, it can be found that the number of new confirmed cases and deaths in the world per week has continued to decline in recent weeks, but in the week ended April 10, the number of new confirmed cases worldwide still exceeded 7 million, and is equivalent to an average daily increase of one million cases, while the number of new deaths in that week is more than 22,000, which is a burden that too many families cannot bear.
WHO specifically reminds that the trend reflected in its weekly epidemic report must be carefully interpreted, because some countries have gradually changed their testing strategies, and the statistics are lower than the actual situation. Its assessment is that although the pathogenicity of the Omickron strain is reduced, the sharp increase in confirmed cases has led to a large number of patients being hospitalized, putting further pressure on the medical system. "In some countries, death numbers are similar or higher than the previous peak."
Under the new global epidemic situation, "lying flat" is actually a helpless choice for some countries and regions. After many attempts, they cannot find an ideal response strategy, so they no longer emphasize or simply take other prevention and control measures except for strengthening vaccination. But after "lying flat", the common thing is that the number of cases surges and the number of deaths is high. After a period of time, the epidemic curve turns downwards .
The United States is a representative example. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention epidemic curve chart shows that the highest number of new deaths in the United States in a single day (4,184 reported on February 1 this year) occurred at the peak of the epidemic caused by the Omickron strain. At that time, the United States lasted for about half a month and reported an average daily death toll of more than 2,500, significantly higher than the peak during the Delta strain raging in September last year. Recently, the average daily death toll in the United States has remained more than 400. As the epidemic becomes tighter, Philadelphia announced the resumption of indoor mask orders on April 11, becoming the first major American city to resume indoor mask orders recently.
Japanese lessons should also be learned. Since mid-January this year, Japan has more than 10,000 new COVID-19 deaths, while Japan's total COVID-19 deaths are less than 30,000. Sweden is the country that adopted the "laying flat" strategy earlier. An article recently published in the sub-publication of the British magazine "Hospitals and Social Sciences Communication" criticized this, believing that Sweden adopted a "natural" herd immunity strategy to deal with the pandemic. The reality is that Sweden's new crown mortality rate in 2020 is 10 times that of neighboring Norway. "If Sweden wants to do better in the future pandemic, it must re-establish scientific methods." Relevant statistics show that Sweden, with a population of about 10 million, has more than 18,000 deaths from the new crown; Norway, with a population of about 5 million, has no more than 3,000 deaths from the new crown.
On March 24, 2022, a staff member of a new coronavirus testing station tested a man in Berlin, the capital of Germany. (Xinhua News Agency)
"Lying flat" policy impacts all aspects
"If you don't have friends infected now, it means you have no friends." This remark from Mexican infectious disease expert Brenda Crabtre on social media is enough to reflect the widespread spread of the new wave of epidemic caused by the Omickron strain in some parts of the world. After the recent fight against the epidemic in some countries, the number of cases has surged again, further impacting all aspects of economic and social life.
The UK is suffering from multiple "sequelae" of "coexisting with the new crown". The British government announced the implementation of the "Coexistence with the New Coronavirus" plan at the end of February, lifting all new crown restrictions in the legal sense. Several data show that the epidemic in the UK has continued to worsen since March, and the infection level has risen to an all-time high.
Take the British medical system as an example: given the current high level of COVID-19 infection and the high sick leave rate of medical staff, the British medical system is in a difficult state of operation, whether in the care of COVID-19 cases or in clearing the backlog of work in the previous two years. British National Health System officials said that many hospitals are currently in short supply of beds and employees are absent due to illness. Danny Altman, a well-known British immunologist, told Xinhua News Agency reporters that hospitals, schools and businesses found that one in ten people were sick and it was difficult to operate normally.
British media recently quoted a survey saying that one quarter of British companies said that the new crown epidemic is one of the main reasons for the shortage of employees in companies. Many airlines have been forced to cancel some flights due to insufficient staff at the airport. UK Parliament A report pointed out that labor shortages may lead to the UK's food industry falling into "permanent shrinkage".
Michael Weber, chairman of the German Senior Hospital Doctors Association, also felt the same: Due to the pandemic, 60% of German hospitals had to postpone scheduled operations, and 6 out of 10 hospitals were short of nursing staff. In an interview with the media, he criticized the German government's recent cancellation of most COVID-19 prevention measures. German Health Minister Carl Lautbach's recent remarks have also attracted attention. He first said that there is no need to be forced quarantine for the new crown, but soon changed his words and said, "The new crown is not a cold", and quarantine is a must.
It should be noted that the "lying flat" policy poses greater risks to the elderly, people with underlying diseases and people with immune impairment. South Korean data shows that among the severe cases and deaths of the new crown in the first week of April, 85.7% and 94.4% of the elderly over 60 years old accounted for 85.7% and 94.4% respectively.
In addition, more than half of South Korea's children aged 9 and under have been infected with the new coronavirus, and some children are troubled by sequelae such as loss of smell. New Zealand well-known epidemiologist Michael Baker said that minors should not be treated lightly with Omickron strains. There is currently no sufficient medical evidence to show whether the new coronavirus will cause long-term potential harm to them.
On April 1, 2022, passengers learned about train information at Termini Railway Station in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Jin Ma Mengni, Xinhua News Agency)
The mutation direction of the new coronavirus is uncertain
Review of the new coronavirus epidemic, a major global public health crisis that has not been encountered in a century. People have been optimistic several times that the pandemic is coming to an end, especially when the vaccine is put into use on a large scale. However, mutant strains appeared one after another, and there was great uncertainty about virus mutation. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Adhanom Ghebreyesus said bluntly: "We cannot predict how the virus will evolve."
Some people believe that viruses are inversely related to infectiousness and pathogenicity in evolution. The Omickron strain is the result of this evolutionary choice. The virus will continue to evolve in a more moderate direction until it can "coexist" with humans. But experts believe that people who hold this view may be too optimistic and take their lives to risk gambling.
Chen Yu, a professor at the National Key Laboratory of Virology at Wuhan University, told reporters that the mutation direction of the new coronavirus itself is random. Infectiousness and pathogenicity are not necessarily related to scientifically. from From a social perspective, the virus is low in pathogenicity and the disease is not obvious, which improves the chances of virus transmission and further increases the fatal risk of low-immune groups.
relaxes and even cancels epidemic restrictions, especially when vaccination coverage in many countries and regions is still very low. The result is that the new coronavirus is widely spread among the population, providing a "hotbed" for the emergence of new mutant strains. The British government's emergency scientific advisory group believes that there is still considerable uncertainty in the pandemic. The higher epidemic of the new coronavirus in the world provides more opportunities for virus mutation, and humans face a higher risk of new mutant strains. , "There is no reason to assume that all mutant strains that appear in the future are mild."
Antoni Viola, an Italian immunology expert and professor of pathology at the University of Padua, pointed out that the problem of reinfection of the new coronavirus cannot be ignored. After infection with the delta strain, it is still possible to reinfect the Omickron strain. Data from the Italian Institute of Higher Health shows that since October 2021, the proportion of cases of secondary infection of the new coronavirus in Italy has gradually increased.
At present, humans still have an understanding of the new coronavirus. Inadequate, nor fully studied how long the immunity caused by vaccination or infection can last. But it is clear that more virus transmission means more deaths, the pandemic is not over, and it is far from the time to relax the fight against the epidemic.
Looking around the world, there are only a few countries that still have the conditions to "discover together, extinguish together". Eliminating the new epidemic in its bud is still the best choice for these countries.
" Think about what would happen to the world if every capable country adopted a "zero" policy in early 2020. It is indisputable that the global death toll will be much lower, fewer people will be infected for a long time, and economic losses will also be reduced ... Omickron may not have a chance to evolve, " The British New Scientist Weekly published an article recently and said with emotion, "When the next pandemic occurs, governments should keep in mind the 'zero' strategy. ” (writer: Peng Qian; participants: Li Wei, Guo Shuang, Hao Yalin, Tan Jingjing, Du Baiyu, He Fei, Zhang Yirong, He Miao, Guo Lei, Hua Yi, Chen Chen)
Source: Xinhua News Agency
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