is getting closer to the runoff date on November 8. The two parties have successively invested a lot of manpower and material resources to build momentum for their candidates. At that time, the Republican only needs to win a place in the Senate to regain control of the Senate. It will cause a powerful attack on any Democratic bill and the nomination of Biden . As the "majority leader", Mitch McConnell will surely reappear the glory of the past, making Biden the same as his predecessor Obama faced McConnell - "full of complaints".
If the Democrats lose control of the Senate in November, it will cast a heavy shadow on the prospects of re-election of Democratic senators in red states or swing states and changing their term in 2024, such as Montana Senator Jon Tester, and West Virginia Joe Manchin.
In the Senate, if the party where the senator is located is a minority, it will mean that he has an extremely weak influence on legislative nominations, etc., but if he is a majority, he can often have a strong influence on legislation. Now at 50:50, Democratic leader Chuck Schumer wants to pass the Democratic Party’s legislation, he must communicate and compromise frequently with the most conservative Democratic Party. Manchin is able to put his own propositions into the bill, realize his personal wishes, and give himself extra influence in the legislative branch (the federal representatives can only feel inferior).
But if a minority senator is not so powerful (long-term debate is not exclusive to a senator and will be broken by the threshold of 60 votes), so if the Democrats lose control of the Senate after November, then the Democratic senators who are re-election in 2024 become minority parties, whether they are willing to spend months of time and energy on campaigning again, and whether they are willing to stay in Congress again to exert their insignificant influence will be deeply affected by the results of this year's midterm election. The more the Democrats lose this year, the lower the possibility of re-election among Democratic senators in the red state (swing state) will be in a lower position.
In addition to Jon Tester of Montana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, the results of this year's midterm elections will have a very big impact on their thoughts and behaviors in 2024, and will even hit Democrats' enthusiasm to challenge seats such as Rick Scott (FL-R) and Ted Cruz (TX-R) in 2024.
Arizona: Liz Cheney (resigned on January 3, 2019) has once again stepped forward to criticize his party candidates, calling on Arizona voters not to vote for Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem, calling on the two to threaten democracy. Cheney is going to completely cut off the Republican rhythm.
Kari Lake and Mark Finchem are both conservative Republicans. Cheney publicly opposes the two because Lake has always been a strong supporter of Trump's election fraud statement, believing that the Democrats operate the election secretly through mail-in ballots. Finchem has released a report of Democrats manipulating tens of thousands of votes and refused to admit Biden is the legitimate president and participated in protests during the January 6 congressional riots. The two have a common characteristic that they are closely related to Trump, so it is not surprising that Cheney hates the house and Wu.
For the first time since 1996, Biden won Arizona in the presidential election, and whether the Republicans can regain control of the state, the campaign performance of three candidates Kari Lake (governor), Mark Finchem (secretary of state) and Blake Masters (federal senator) is crucial.
1Georgia : Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker is in trouble. Walker was revealed to have paid a woman's abortion in 2009 (with a check and receipt signed by Walker) and had a son with her. In addition, Walker was previously accused of domestic abuse by his ex-wife. It can be foreseeable that the Democratic Party will use the media to make a big fuss to attack Walker this time, paving the way for Paphael Warnock's re-election.
Georgia's runoff date is November 8. If Warnock and Walker fail to win more than 50% of the votes, the playoff will be held again on December 6. In 2020, it was precisely because the Republicans' two Georgia federal senator seats were played in a playoff (January 5, 21) and were flipped by Democratic Party Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, which directly led to the Republican Party losing control of the Senate, forming the current 50:50 Senate pattern. If the playoffs are held on December 6, it is not ruled out that this seat in Georgia will become the final battle to determine who will gain control of the Senate between the two parties. The Republican Party must do its best to avoid repeating the mistakes in 2020.
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