Once upon a time, we expected to win 5 million lottery tickets. The idea of getting something for nothing has never been realized, and it was not even worth 5 yuan.
is often the foreign lottery users who have won hundreds of millions of yuan in prizes, which is enviable. I won’t discuss the true or falsehood for the time being. In addition to being amazed, some people raised the question of whether there will be profitability if you take a full coverage method to buy the lottery pool. Below we will start with the basic situation of the American lottery and make a slightly rough analysis, just as the pleasure of leisure.
1. Purchase conditions and restrictions of American lottery
1. Regardless of nationality, you can legally purchase American lottery as long as you are over 18 years old. People must be in the United States (this is to be further confirmed) and buy lottery tickets through legal channels before they can redeem the prize, but they do not need to have American nationality and residency.
2. Some states in the United States allow domestic authorized websites to sell lottery tickets, and these websites are only allowed to sell lottery tickets to residents in the state.
2. Related rules for receiving awards
1. Policies for receiving awards: Each state has different policies. Basically, if the prize is less than 599 dollars, you can usually go to the retailer to redeem it directly. If it exceeds $600, you must fill out the request form or go to the designated location to collect it.
2. How to collect: One is to collect immediately, and the other is to collect it regularly. If you choose to collect it year by year, it will be divided into several annual payments. The winner can receive the first period of annuity, and the rest will be collected in installments in subsequent years, and the annual amount will increase by a certain proportion of the bonus year by year. The actual details shall be subject to the state regulations of the lottery.
3. The period of award collection and whether it is anonymous: The period of award collection varies from state to state, some are 90 days, some are 180 days, and some are 1 year. Some states can receive prizes anonymously, while others need to be disclosed, depending on the state regulations for purchasing lottery tickets.
4. Tax rate related issues: The taxes that need to be paid for bonuses are divided into federal tax, state tax and personal income tax. If the winning amount exceeds $600, you must pay taxes. Depending on the bonus level, you must pay nearly 40% of the US federal tax. The state tax part depends on the purchase of state and has different tax rates, ranging from about 0% to 8.5%. The bonuses for , California , Texas and Florida do not need to be paid for state tax. If you are a foreigner, you will have to pay a 30% federal tax and purchase other state taxes. According to online statements, if you get all bonuses at one time, you will not get half of the total bonus, and if you total installment, the total bonus will be about 70% of the total bonus.
3. Introduction and data analysis of the two most famous lottery games (see https://www.usamega.com/mega-millions.asp, etc.)
lottery type 1. MEGA MILLONS (For the United States, see http://www.megamillions.com)
This lottery type is one of the two largest multi-level lottery games in the United States, and the other is Powerball, which will be introduced below. The basic gameplay rules of
MEGA MILLONS are roughly as follows:
1. Each bet amount is 2 dollars
2. General number (1 to 70) 70 Choose 5 + Special number (Mega ball 1 to 25) 25 Choose 1
3. The lottery time is twice a week,
4 every Tuesday and Friday. 44 states in the United States, , District of Columbia, and the US Virgin Islands can be purchased offline, including Georgia, Illinois, , Kentucky, , Michigan, , , North Carolina, and , North Dakota, ,
5. Special jackpot, bonus starts at $4,000,000. If no one wins in this period, accumulative $500,000 will be added to the bonus pool, and the top will not be capped. However, if there are many people in the same period, they need to be evenly distributed.
6. In addition to the special prize, there are 8 other awards of the other level. Jackpot bonuses are not fixed, and other levels of bonuses are fixed (except California). There are two ways to receive the special prize. One is to receive it immediately, and the other is to receive it in 30 years. If you choose to receive it year by year, it will be divided into 30 payments (30 years). The winner can receive the first period of annuity, and the remaining 29 periods will be collected in installments in the following 29 years, and the annual amount will increase by an additional 5% bonus year by year. The actual details shall be subject to the state regulations of the lottery.
The following figure 1 is the winning requirements of each level listed in the official website introduction:
Figure 1
The following table 1 is the winning requirements of each level of prize and the calculation results of the relevant winning probability sizing
Table 1 The winning requirements of each level of prize and the calculation results of the related winning probability sizing
From the above table, we can see that the basic gameplay, the probability of winning the first prize is one in 300 million, which is said to be much lower than the probability of being hit by lightning. In terms of bonuses, the winning situations that can be checked in the official website found that the frequency of winning 100,000 dollars (no jackpot), the minimum bonus is $300,000, and the maximum bonus is $5,33 million,000, or more than $500 million (as shown in Figure 2). In addition, there are data that three people once divided the bonus of US$656 million in the first period.
Figure 2 The mega millions winner listed on the official website has the largest amount of mega millions listed on the official website. Here is analyzing the losses and benefits of the purchase in full coverage.
Total investment: Because there are 302575350 situations, for each bet of $2, a total of $605,150,700, or more than $600 million.
Let’s take a look at the full coverage income: except for the jackpot bonus part, the remaining prize amount can be calculated in advance. Total amount = (302575350/12607306)* 100 0000 + (302575350/931001)*1 0000 + (302575350/38792) * 500 + (302575350/14547) * 200 + (302575350/606)*10 + (302575350/693)* 10 + (302575350/89)*4 + (302575350/37)*2
= 74623416 Knives, that is, the fixed part of the bonus is about 70 million Knives. Even if the highest prize amount in history is $530 million, the total prize amount is $600 million, regardless of tax deduction, the method of full coverage is still not enough to cover the money.
In addition, there are also Megaplier's raised gameplay as shown in Figure 3. There are many situations. I will not discuss the rules of
for the time being. The following figure is as follows:
Figure 3. Megaplier raised gameplay rules diagram
lottery type two. PowerBall (Powerball Lotto see http://www.powerball.com/)
This lottery type is also one of the two largest multi-level lottery games in the United States. The basic gameplay rules are roughly as follows:
1. Each bet amount is 2
2. General number (1 to 69) 69 choose 5 + special number (Power ball 1 to 26) 26 choose 1
3. The lottery time is twice a week,
4. You can buy it on more than 40 states in the United States, but online ticket purchases are still relatively strict. In theory, you can only buy it on the official website of the state where the residents are located.
5. Similar to Mega billions, except for the first prize, the prizes for other awards are fixed. In addition to the special prize, there are 8 other awards of the other level. Jackpot bonuses are not fixed, and other levels of bonuses are fixed (except California). There are two ways to receive the special prize. One is to receive it immediately, and the other is to receive it in 30 years. If you choose to receive it year by year, it will be divided into 30 payments (30 years). The winner can receive the first period of annuity, and the remaining 29 periods will be collected in installments in the following 29 years, and the annual amount will increase by an additional 5% bonus year by year. The actual details shall be subject to the state regulations of the lottery.
The following figure 3 is the winning requirements of each level listed in the official website:
Figure 3 powerball Winning rules and bonus allocation
The following table 2 is the winning requirements of each level of prize and the calculation results of the winning probability sizing of each level of prize
Table 2 The winning requirements of each level of prize and the calculation results of the winning probability sizing of the winning probability sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning sizing of the winning singly
From the above, it can be seen that the probability of winning a special prize has also reached one in 290 million. Referring to the size of the historical special prize pool, the maximum special prize bonus reached $158,640,000, or $1.5864 billion. According to the after-tax income analysis given on the official website, the maximum after-tax income in some states can be $7,376,25,000, or close to $740,000. If you consider the full coverage at this time, the total investment in the basic gameplay is 292201338 * 2 = 584402576 knives, less than 600 million US dollars. It is also profitable to not count the bonus part of other levels. In addition, the fixed part has a total income of about 200 million US dollars.
Similarly, this lottery type has more ways to raise the bet, and there is no discussion here.
4. Review
After the above analysis, it can be seen that the probability of winning the lottery is very small, and buying with full coverage may not necessarily make a profit, but in the case where the bonus pool is known to be very huge, there is theoretical possibility of making money.
will analyze the feasibility of full coverage. Looking at Powerball, which is relatively unlikely, there are 292,201,338 possible results. Assuming that one person can buy one lottery ticket in 10 seconds and work uninterrupted 24 hours a day, one person can buy 8,640 tickets a day. Here, assuming that each person is responsible for the lottery section in advance and there are 3 days to complete the full coverage, the total manpower required is about 11,274, that is, more than 10,000 people can sleep for 3 days to complete the full coverage task. Overall, it is not realistic. If the machine can generate lottery tickets with a specified number in batches, it should not be counted otherwise.
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