Source: Global Times
[Global Times reporter Bai Yunyi Global Times special correspondent in Brazil Shao Shijun Global Times special correspondent Li Jing] "Military intervention!" On November 2 local time, when supporters of Brazilian Labor Party leader Lula were still immersed in the joy of the former president's "return of the king" after the election, tens of thousands of current president Bolsonaro supporters held protests in at least 75 cities in the country, including the capitals of 26 states and the capital Brasilia . They did not recognize the election results, demanded that Bolsonaro continue to take power, and even called on the military to take over the government. In recent years, Brazilian society has been severely divided and polarization has continued to intensify, and this year's election has become a magnifying glass for this issue. In fact, a careful analysis of Brazil's political situation this year shows that the rise of left-wing parties does not mean the weakening of the right-wing power. On the contrary, Bolsonaro and his allies have achieved major victories in this year's Senate and House of Representatives and local elections, and the situation of "on the big one" will make Brazil's future disputes more intense.
"Towards Onoba"
The dust settled in the election did not end the division in Brazil. On Tuesday local time, Bolsonaro did not admit defeat in his first public speech after the election, but authorized other officials to transfer power. Bolsonaro supporters who are reluctant to acknowledge the election results have blocked roads across Brazil for several consecutive days. Police in the country said that as of Wednesday, 146 roads were blocked. At a blockade near the town of Mirasol, São Paulo, a driver drove into a crowd of protesters, injuring at least seven people. On Wednesday, tens of thousands of protesters wore Brazilian flags and gathered outside , military bases across the country, demanding that the military intervene in the election results. Some people have also proposed on social media that the military should control the streets and dissolve the Congress and the Supreme Court, or hold a new general election. This demand is worrying for countries that have once suffered from military dictatorship.
This election exposed the deep division in Brazil. "When Lula's supporters lit the torch and cried with joy, Bolsonaro's supporters knelt down and prayed, hoping for a miracle in this election." AFP described the different reactions of the two factions after the election results were announced. A survey by polling agency Quaest shows that the number of people who hope Lula and Bolsonaro win the election is basically the same. Different political tendencies have caused many Brazilians to clash with their friends, colleagues, etc., and political violence continues to increase. Data shows that Brazil had 212 cases of political violence in the third quarter of this year, an increase of 230% compared with the same period last year.
This disagreement not only exists among Brazilian people, but also the country's legislature, central and local governments have been separated. Although many people regard the presidential election as a victory for Lula and the Brazilian left, a closer look reveals that the truth is not that simple. In the second round of election votes held on October 30, Lula and Bolsonaro won 50.9% and 49.1% respectively, which is the weakest gap in Brazil's modern election history. In addition, in the first round of voting on October 2, Bolsonaro performed much better than expected. Previous polls showed that Bolsonaro would trail Lula by about 10 percentage points in the first round of voting, but the final result was only 5 percentage points behind. Bolsonaro won more than 58 million votes in the second round of voting, 7 million more votes than the first round. From the perspective of vote distribution, Lula's votes are mainly concentrated in areas with relatively backward economies in northeastern and northern Brazil, while economically developed areas in southeastern Brazil are the basic base of Bolsonaro. This shows that the differences in geographical and economic conditions have led to the differentiation of public opinion in Brazil.
On October 2, except for the first round of voting for the presidential election, all seats in the Brazilian House of Representatives were re-elected, one-third of the Senate was re-elected, and all governors and state legislatures in the country were re-elected. The Liberal Party, where Bolsonaro is located, won 99 seats in the House, 23 more than in 2017, becoming the largest party in the House. Adding to allies, Bolsonaro's right-wing camp represents 273 seats in the House of Representatives. Of the 27 seats re-elected in the Senate, the Liberal Party won 14 seats, while Lula's Labor Party won only 8 seats.In addition, in the leadership elections of Brazil's 26 states and capital Brasilia, Bolsonaro's supporters won in 13 states, including the top three economic strength São Paulo State , Rio de Janeiro State and Minas Gerais State . The winners on October 2 also included former Brazilian Health Minister Pazulo. His poor response to the COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in more than 680,000 deaths in the country, which has not affected his support rate.
A Chinese Latin American expert told a reporter from the " Global Times " on the 2nd that judging from the results of this congressional and local elections, the right-wing conservative forces have greatly enhanced, and Brazil has shown a basic trend of "going toward the point of being on the ground and big in the wild". Brazilian media such as Sao Paulo's Page and scholars such as Merlo, a professor of political science at the University of Insper, São Paulo, believe that the election shows that Bolsonaro's coming to power in 2018 was not just because many people were disgusted with the ruling party and its scandal at the time, but had a deep social foundation. The Brazilian president's "Bible, Bullets and Beef" vote bay, the Christian evangelical, security hardliners and powerful agribusiness sector, seems to be more powerful than expected. Some comments said that Bolsonaro strengthened the Brazilian right and the Brazilian parliament will be more conservative in 2023. "Bolsonaro has taken the Senate and we will see him launch a fierce ideological battle with the left in the next few years," said Trauman, a political scientist at the Vagas Foundation.
2013 and 2016, the turning point of division
multiple mainstream media generally believes that Bolsonaro's governing exacerbated Brazil's polarization, but before he came to power, the division of Brazilian society had begun.
Computer scientists and social scientists at the University of São Paulo have been tracking the Brazilian people's dynamics on Facebook for several years. Their research found that 2013 was a turning point in Brazil's social polarization. This year, based on the type of visit page, the above researchers divided Brazilian Facebook users interested in politics into six "communities", including right-wing conservative politicians and political parties, left-wing politicians and political parties, tough anti-crime groups, anti-corruption campaign organizations, progressive social movement organizations, human rights and environmentalist organizations. Although there were obvious differences in behaviors of people who followed Brazil's left- and right-wing parties online in 2013, they overlapped in many areas, such as those interested in progressive social movements, and those who were also interested in anti-corruption movements.
However, after the massive protests in Brazil in June 2013, the differences between Facebook's above-mentioned communities support left-wing and right-wing parties have significantly widened, while other user "communities" gradually fell apart. The protests at that time began with some people's dissatisfaction with the sharp rise in urban bus and subway fares, and later gradually expanded to other areas. About 12% of Brazil's population participated in the march at that time, which also became a turning point in Brazilian society. By the end of 2013, the politically right-leaning people had united around the issue of corruption, while the left-leaning people focused on social projects and public services.
From 2014 to 2016, researchers found that Brazilian Facebook users, who once belonged to six communities, formed two groups with little intersection: progress and conservatism. In 2016, the then-President Rousseff was impeached and further deepened the rift between political parties and the people. American think tank The Carnegie International Peace Foundation's research results are similar to those of scientists at the University of São Paulo. They also believe that the large-scale protests in 2013 and the impeachment of Rousseff in 2016 are landmark events that aggravate the social division in Brazil. Among them, the impeachment of Rousseff pushed polarization to the pinnacle, not only creating irreconcilable differences between the Labor Party and the Opposition, but also promoting a deeper confrontation between the establishment and the anti-establishment.
Brazilian scholar Stuinkoll said Rousseff's weak and short second term and his deputy Temer's election as successor have deepened many Brazilians' doubts about whether the political elite is willing to patch the institutional flaws. In 2017, Bolsonaro also joined the ranks of skeptics. The formerly "unknown" right-wing MP won the 2018 general election by positioning himself as the most anti-system candidate.
Source: Global Times
[Global Times reporter Bai Yunyi Global Times special correspondent in Brazil Shao Shijun Global Times special correspondent Li Jing] "Military intervention!" On November 2 local time, when supporters of Brazilian Labor Party leader Lula were still immersed in the joy of the former president's "return of the king" after the election, tens of thousands of current president Bolsonaro supporters held protests in at least 75 cities in the country, including the capitals of 26 states and the capital Brasilia . They did not recognize the election results, demanded that Bolsonaro continue to take power, and even called on the military to take over the government. In recent years, Brazilian society has been severely divided and polarization has continued to intensify, and this year's election has become a magnifying glass for this issue. In fact, a careful analysis of Brazil's political situation this year shows that the rise of left-wing parties does not mean the weakening of the right-wing power. On the contrary, Bolsonaro and his allies have achieved major victories in this year's Senate and House of Representatives and local elections, and the situation of "on the big one" will make Brazil's future disputes more intense.
"Towards Onoba"
The dust settled in the election did not end the division in Brazil. On Tuesday local time, Bolsonaro did not admit defeat in his first public speech after the election, but authorized other officials to transfer power. Bolsonaro supporters who are reluctant to acknowledge the election results have blocked roads across Brazil for several consecutive days. Police in the country said that as of Wednesday, 146 roads were blocked. At a blockade near the town of Mirasol, São Paulo, a driver drove into a crowd of protesters, injuring at least seven people. On Wednesday, tens of thousands of protesters wore Brazilian flags and gathered outside , military bases across the country, demanding that the military intervene in the election results. Some people have also proposed on social media that the military should control the streets and dissolve the Congress and the Supreme Court, or hold a new general election. This demand is worrying for countries that have once suffered from military dictatorship.
This election exposed the deep division in Brazil. "When Lula's supporters lit the torch and cried with joy, Bolsonaro's supporters knelt down and prayed, hoping for a miracle in this election." AFP described the different reactions of the two factions after the election results were announced. A survey by polling agency Quaest shows that the number of people who hope Lula and Bolsonaro win the election is basically the same. Different political tendencies have caused many Brazilians to clash with their friends, colleagues, etc., and political violence continues to increase. Data shows that Brazil had 212 cases of political violence in the third quarter of this year, an increase of 230% compared with the same period last year.
This disagreement not only exists among Brazilian people, but also the country's legislature, central and local governments have been separated. Although many people regard the presidential election as a victory for Lula and the Brazilian left, a closer look reveals that the truth is not that simple. In the second round of election votes held on October 30, Lula and Bolsonaro won 50.9% and 49.1% respectively, which is the weakest gap in Brazil's modern election history. In addition, in the first round of voting on October 2, Bolsonaro performed much better than expected. Previous polls showed that Bolsonaro would trail Lula by about 10 percentage points in the first round of voting, but the final result was only 5 percentage points behind. Bolsonaro won more than 58 million votes in the second round of voting, 7 million more votes than the first round. From the perspective of vote distribution, Lula's votes are mainly concentrated in areas with relatively backward economies in northeastern and northern Brazil, while economically developed areas in southeastern Brazil are the basic base of Bolsonaro. This shows that the differences in geographical and economic conditions have led to the differentiation of public opinion in Brazil.
On October 2, except for the first round of voting for the presidential election, all seats in the Brazilian House of Representatives were re-elected, one-third of the Senate was re-elected, and all governors and state legislatures in the country were re-elected. The Liberal Party, where Bolsonaro is located, won 99 seats in the House, 23 more than in 2017, becoming the largest party in the House. Adding to allies, Bolsonaro's right-wing camp represents 273 seats in the House of Representatives. Of the 27 seats re-elected in the Senate, the Liberal Party won 14 seats, while Lula's Labor Party won only 8 seats.In addition, in the leadership elections of Brazil's 26 states and capital Brasilia, Bolsonaro's supporters won in 13 states, including the top three economic strength São Paulo State , Rio de Janeiro State and Minas Gerais State . The winners on October 2 also included former Brazilian Health Minister Pazulo. His poor response to the COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in more than 680,000 deaths in the country, which has not affected his support rate.
A Chinese Latin American expert told a reporter from the " Global Times " on the 2nd that judging from the results of this congressional and local elections, the right-wing conservative forces have greatly enhanced, and Brazil has shown a basic trend of "going toward the point of being on the ground and big in the wild". Brazilian media such as Sao Paulo's Page and scholars such as Merlo, a professor of political science at the University of Insper, São Paulo, believe that the election shows that Bolsonaro's coming to power in 2018 was not just because many people were disgusted with the ruling party and its scandal at the time, but had a deep social foundation. The Brazilian president's "Bible, Bullets and Beef" vote bay, the Christian evangelical, security hardliners and powerful agribusiness sector, seems to be more powerful than expected. Some comments said that Bolsonaro strengthened the Brazilian right and the Brazilian parliament will be more conservative in 2023. "Bolsonaro has taken the Senate and we will see him launch a fierce ideological battle with the left in the next few years," said Trauman, a political scientist at the Vagas Foundation.
2013 and 2016, the turning point of division
multiple mainstream media generally believes that Bolsonaro's governing exacerbated Brazil's polarization, but before he came to power, the division of Brazilian society had begun.
Computer scientists and social scientists at the University of São Paulo have been tracking the Brazilian people's dynamics on Facebook for several years. Their research found that 2013 was a turning point in Brazil's social polarization. This year, based on the type of visit page, the above researchers divided Brazilian Facebook users interested in politics into six "communities", including right-wing conservative politicians and political parties, left-wing politicians and political parties, tough anti-crime groups, anti-corruption campaign organizations, progressive social movement organizations, human rights and environmentalist organizations. Although there were obvious differences in behaviors of people who followed Brazil's left- and right-wing parties online in 2013, they overlapped in many areas, such as those interested in progressive social movements, and those who were also interested in anti-corruption movements.
However, after the massive protests in Brazil in June 2013, the differences between Facebook's above-mentioned communities support left-wing and right-wing parties have significantly widened, while other user "communities" gradually fell apart. The protests at that time began with some people's dissatisfaction with the sharp rise in urban bus and subway fares, and later gradually expanded to other areas. About 12% of Brazil's population participated in the march at that time, which also became a turning point in Brazilian society. By the end of 2013, the politically right-leaning people had united around the issue of corruption, while the left-leaning people focused on social projects and public services.
From 2014 to 2016, researchers found that Brazilian Facebook users, who once belonged to six communities, formed two groups with little intersection: progress and conservatism. In 2016, the then-President Rousseff was impeached and further deepened the rift between political parties and the people. American think tank The Carnegie International Peace Foundation's research results are similar to those of scientists at the University of São Paulo. They also believe that the large-scale protests in 2013 and the impeachment of Rousseff in 2016 are landmark events that aggravate the social division in Brazil. Among them, the impeachment of Rousseff pushed polarization to the pinnacle, not only creating irreconcilable differences between the Labor Party and the Opposition, but also promoting a deeper confrontation between the establishment and the anti-establishment.
Brazilian scholar Stuinkoll said Rousseff's weak and short second term and his deputy Temer's election as successor have deepened many Brazilians' doubts about whether the political elite is willing to patch the institutional flaws. In 2017, Bolsonaro also joined the ranks of skeptics. The formerly "unknown" right-wing MP won the 2018 general election by positioning himself as the most anti-system candidate.
Economic development imbalance and the resulting increase in income gap have also built a "wall" among Brazilian people. According to AFP, inequality in Brazil weakened during Lula's presidency in the early 21st century, but in the past 10 years, inequality has exploded between the rich and the poor and among the residents of the south and the north. People in northeast Brazil earn only half of the income of the southeast, and they are twice as likely to lose their jobs. The gap between the gender and the different races is also growing. The epidemic has further aggravated social inequality in Brazil.
Bolsonaro's governance style and the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 epidemic have made Brazil's deep-rooted polarization problem even more difficult to solve. Bolsonaro's attacks on mainstream politicians, media, public health professionals, etc. have helped him consolidate his basic position, and have also made many of his supporters more aggressive in language, making it increasingly difficult for centrist politicians to find a consensus-based middle-level position.
Millions of Brazilians escaped poverty during the first decade of the 21st century commodity boom, but in the second decade of this century, Brazil's economy had little growth or even regressed, which reversed public expectations. In the 2020s, they were more susceptible to radical solutions and populist .
Lula vows to rule for all Brazilians
"Brazil's ideological differences are now more serious than at any time in modern history." said Santoro, a professor at Rio de Janeiro State University. Lula will lead a more right-leaning and more rippled country in 2023 than when he first came to power in 2003. Bloomberg, the United States, emphasized that although Bolsonaro was defeated in the election on October 30, the "right-wing identity politics" he represents still has a large market in Brazil. The US think tank "Committee on Foreign Relations" (CFR) quoted experts as saying that the victory of Bolsonaro and his supporters in Congress and local elections may give impetus to supporters of the current president, making it more difficult for Lula to govern after taking office.
"Like today's America, Brazil that Lula will face after taking office is also an extremely divided Brazil. This rift is difficult to bridge in a short period of time." Researcher Zhou Zhiwei at the Institute of Latin America, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told the Global Times reporter that in fact, Lula and other left-wing leaders have come to power in Latin America, which does not mean a major defeat of the right. Under the appearance of "turning left", the power of left and right wings still maintains an overall balance in Brazil and Latin America.
Another expert in Latin America in China told the Global Times that based on Brazil's current situation, after Lula takes office in the future, his governance will inevitably be strongly constrained by the right-wing, and it is difficult for him to govern. Therefore, he has to move closer to the middle line, strive to win the support of cross-class people with more pragmatic and inclusive policies, strive to build national development consensus, and lead Brazil out of the current dilemma. Bloomberg believes that negotiations between Lula's alliance and the parties currently supporting Bolsonaro will be the key to his agreement in Congress.
In fact, Lula has long realized the problem and has tried to expand the league as much as possible during the campaign. To gain widespread support, Lula chose his political rival, former São Paulo Governor Akmin as his running mate. After the first round of voting, he immediately won the support of candidates Tebet and Gomez, who won the third and fourth votes in the first round, and Tebet even personally took the lead in canvassing Lula. There are about 10 political parties that are allied with Lula now, ranging from the far left to the center right. It is worth noting that many of the voters who voted for Lula this time are not leftists, and some centrists and center-rights hope to end Bolsonaro's term as soon as possible, so they support Lula.
, who recognized the seriousness of the problem of national division, Lula vowed in his victory speech to rule for "all 215 million Brazilians", "there are no two Brazilians: only one country, one nation, and one great nation". In fact, Lula has also tried her best to promote domestic unity before. When he was first elected Brazilian president in 2002, Lula, the union leader, issued an open letter trying to appease the economic elite who were panicked by the rise of left-wing candidates.This time, he issued a Commitment to the Evangelicals in an attempt to avoid misunderstandings about themselves due to Bolsonaro's smear. The Labor Party leader promised that he would not undermine Christian values and would guarantee freedom of faith.
This time, he issued a Commitment to the Evangelicals in an attempt to avoid misunderstandings about themselves due to Bolsonaro's smear. The Labor Party leader promised that he would not undermine Christian values and would guarantee freedom of faith.-
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