2021 Ceramics industry will enter the overall development trend of "inverted golden bell"
Qin Wei
(The author is a senior technical expert in ceramic color glaze)
"August autumn wind is angry, rolling my house on the triple thatch" Recently, many media in the industry are paying attention to the unprecedented development obstacles facing the ceramic industry. The rapid development of ceramics has gone through nearly 20 years of rapid development, and with the majestic momentum of real estate, it has achieved a transformation from tens of billions to hundreds of billions. Even though it was the label of the "three highs" sunset industry back then and relying on the strategy of using manufacturing as the road to prosperity, the ceramic industry not only realized the production design and manufacturing of the entire industrial chain such as kiln press equipment, but also completed the external output of the ceramic industry. At present, China's technology or equipment can be basically seen in major ceramic production bases around the world, and of course it also includes the output of technicians and the strategy of partially going global by domestic ceramic companies. Overall, relying on global demand and the need for development and construction of emerging countries, the demand for ceramics will inevitably exist for a long time. In the later stage, there will definitely be room for growth outside, but in the domestic perspective, it should be a slow downward trend in the future. Leading companies continue to use their capital advantages to merge and acquire and expand industrial production capacity, and small and medium-sized second-tier and lower-tier enterprises will enter the industry streamlining and reshuffle cycle of being acquired and eliminated by the market.
Specifically, in the future, the ceramic industry will enter the "inverted golden bell" form development period, and will present the following three new forms:
One of them, in the overall market reduction environment, the increase in labor costs and other costs prompts ceramic companies to reduce costs and expenditures to a certain extent. It is not necessarily a good thing for the capital market to enter the ceramic industry. For a mature ceramic industry that lives on basic manufacturing, there is no sufficient profit to support the capital market's return on profits for investing in ceramics. The entry of capital into the ceramic market in the medium and short term not only aggravates the industry's bad development and irrational expansion of production capacity, but also may also aggravate the formation of industry monopoly, forcing enterprises to pursue short-term benefits and then take some aggressive behaviors. Therefore, in the future, under the influence of capital, leading enterprises will save internal expenses and expand externally to merge production capacity. Leading enterprises will show a trend of increasing coverage of the entire industrial chain.
Secondly, taking ceramic supporting enterprises as an example, the difficulty of some colored glaze companies in the transformation process has further increased. For industrial branches' head coloring or glaze companies, it will be even more uncomfortable to carry out internal cost-saving measures carried out by ceramic manufacturers. The single product and the transparent competition of product unit price completely deviate from brand value and investment in R&D for new technology products. No cost reduction, no new technology formulas, and no cheaper raw materials will make it more difficult for companies to move forward. Second- and third-tier ceramic manufacturers reduce costs and make their own glaze further reduce the existence space of glaze companies. The bidding for many glaze companies by brand manufacturers has led to further compressing unit price profits. It can be expected that after the colored glaze companies enter a new round of reshuffle, companies in various branches and industries are likely to eliminate half of the companies.
Third, as mentioned earlier, the leading ceramic tile companies in the ceramic industry are conducting a new round of capital and capacity expansion. Second- and third-tier enterprises in the central region will be reshuffled, and second- and third-tier enterprises that can survive will inevitably be uniquely competitive enterprises. Production capacity is no longer the focus of these companies' development. Products similar to "Internet celebrity" companies that are innovative or personalized, such as products that are mainly used for wear-resistant series and other products to attract traffic are the source of this type of companies. The same is true for the colored glaze industry. Only by becoming the top three companies in the industry can they survive well. Most small and medium-sized enterprises must focus on individual products or specific fields to be the strongest.
Overall, the ceramic industry will enter a new stage of a new round of industry "policy" reshuffle. In the future, the ceramic industry will enter a period of "inverted golden bell" form development. Leading ceramic companies will further expand their capital and production capacity externally and control their cost savings internally. As a supporting downstream colored glaze and other industries will be even more uncomfortable. Cost and capital are the driving factors of this round of reshuffle. The continuation of the overall shrinking trend of the domestic ceramic demand market will further aggravate the elimination and merger reshuffle between enterprises in the industry.
(Original article, please indicate the reprint!)
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