article | Kaifeng
Chinese cities are ushering in a new round of major reshuffle.
Industrial structure, population situation, international situation changes, epidemic, floods, energy consumption dual control and other factors affecting...
The national urban economic pattern has undergone tremendous changes.
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This is the ranking of the top 50 cities in the mainland in 2021:
The competition for the first echelon of China's cities has entered from the original trillion club to the 2 trillion or even 3 trillion club.
At the same time, the mainland trillion GDP cities have expanded to 24, 18 in the south and 6 in the north.
TOP50 The threshold for urban has also been raised to more than 500 billion yuan . Taiyuan is the "goalkeeper" , and some provincial capitals have failed to advance to the top 50.
Specifically, Beijing and Shanghai have exceeded 4 trillion, becoming the only two 4 trillion markets in my country.
As the two first-tier cities with the most transcendent status, one is the political and cultural center and the other is the economic and financial center. Their comprehensive strength will still be far ahead in the future.
After Beijing and Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are also first-tier cities, are all marching towards 3 trillion yuan.
Although the gap between Beijing and Shanghai has widened, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are only sub-provincial cities, and Guangzhou is even more subject to the third-level finance. Whether it is administrative level or urban level, or policy strength, it is difficult to match Beijing and Shanghai. It is more reliant on self-reliance, so it is difficult to achieve such achievements.
In the 2 trillion club, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Suzhou is far ahead. In 2022, it is not a big problem for Guangzhou and Chongqing to exceed 3 trillion yuan, and Suzhou will also have the possibility of challenging 3 trillion yuan in the next five years.
In fact, in the top 10 cities, Chengdu is only one step away from 2 trillion , and it is only a matter of one or two years to break through 2 trillion in Hangzhou, Wuhan and other places.
At the same time, the trillion-dollar club members have once again expanded, but only one city in Dongguan has advanced in 2021. At present, there are 24 trillion cities across the country, 18 are located in the south and 6 are located in the north.
Of course, with the expansion of trillion-dollar cities, the value of trillion-dollar GDP is also declining rapidly. trillions will only be the starting point of urban competition, not the end point.
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Big City Game: Who advanced?
City economy can be said to be chasing each other, if you don’t advance, you will retreat. No one can stay strong forever.
In the past year, which cities have maintained their economic advantage? Which cities are challenged?
One of them is Jinan, Hefei, Fuzhou, Dongguan, Tangshan, Shenyang, Nanchang, Taiyuan and other provincial capitals or economically strong cities, which have achieved promotion.
Taiyuan has a slight advantage of about 100 million yuan, surpassing Nanning, advancing to the top 50 cities, becoming the " Goalkeeper " of the top 50 cities.
Nanning, Guiyang, Urumqi, Lanzhou, Hohhot and other provincial capital cities are out of the top 50.
Secondly, Guangzhou has surpassed Chongqing, defended its fourth city in GDP, and narrowed the distance with Shenzhen.
In 2021, Guangzhou's GDP was 2.82 trillion yuan and Chongqing was 2.78 trillion yuan. Guangzhou's leading advantage over Chongqing has expanded to more than 30 billion yuan.
At the same time, the gap between Guangzhou and Shenzhen has narrowed from more than 400 billion yuan at its peak in previous years to about 240 billion yuan.
As the analysis of the article "The Contest for the Fourth National GDP, No Suspense", this is due to Guangzhou's completion of industrial transformation. With the help of new generation information technology, biomedicine, new energy and other new momentum, as well as the help of urban renewal, economic development has returned to the track of high growth.
Third, Tianjin still stopped outside the top ten.
Since Nanjing replaced Tianjin as the tenth city in mainland China in 2020, the whereabouts of Tianjin's economy have become the focus of public opinion. There are endless sayings such as Beijing being the only northern city left in the top ten cities, which is discussed in detail in Kaifeng's new book "The Big Trends of Chinese Cities".
However, in 2021, Tianjin is still one step away from the TOP10. In 2021, Tianjin's GDP was 1.57 trillion yuan, which is still more than 60 billion yuan away from Nanjing, which ranks tenth.
After Nanjing surpassed Tianjin for the first time in 2020 and advanced to the top ten cities, Tianjin still failed to surpass Nanjing in 2021, and the gap with Nanjing is about 60 billion.
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Who is the biggest "dark horse"?
In 2021, a number of "dark horses" emerged in the urban economy, and economic strength achieved a significant leap.
Among the top 50 cities, there are 4 cities with the greatest progress: Yulin, Shaanxi, Taiyuan, Shanxi, Weifang, Shandong, and Fuzhou, Fujian.
Among them, Fuzhou takes advantage of the advantage of a strong provincial capital and returns to the position of the largest economic city in the province. The GDP has surpassed Quanzhou, Nantong and Xi'an, and has become one of the top 20 cities.
and Shandong Weifang surpassed Shijiazhuang, Shaoxing, Yancheng and other cities, and their rankings were greatly improved.
Weifang's promotion is due to strong industrial growth, with an industrial growth rate of more than 12%; on the other hand, it comes from investment contribution, with a fixed investment growth rate of more than 16%, of which infrastructure investment exceeding 33%.
Weifang once shouted the slogan of "Persist in the regional GDP by over one trillion yuan, sprinting to the top 30 comprehensive strength of large and medium-sized cities in the country, and accelerating the entry into the ranks of second-tier cities in China." . If
If the rapid growth can be maintained, this goal may not be impossible to achieve.
Compared with Yulin and Taiyuan are more prominent.
In 2021, the nominal GDP growth rate of Yulin and Taiyuan reached 32.9% and 23.3% respectively, and the city rankings jumped 11th and 6th respectively, and the two cities were able to advance to the top 50.
Yulin and Taiyuan have advanced significantly, thanks to the sharp rise in resource prices .
Yulin is a famous coal city, and Shanxi, where Taiyuan is located, is the largest coal-producing province in the country.
In the past year, under the influence of global supply chain tightness, high inflation and dual control of energy consumption, coal production capacity has expanded, and prices have risen sharply, which has led to a rare and large growth in the total economic volume of resource-based cities.
Among them, Yulin is the most typical. In 2021, Yulin's GDP reached 543.518 billion yuan, not only surpassing Taiyuan, the capital of neighboring provinces, but also surpassing Xiangyang and Yichang, approaching Luoyang, which has long led the non-provincial capital cities in the central and western regions.
Coal price has risen sharply. How much does it contribute to Yulin's economy?
Data shows that in 2021, the industrial output value of Yulin City exceeded 700 billion yuan for the first time, an increase of 55.9% over the previous year. Among them, the output value of the energy industry increased by 61.4%; the output value of the chemical industry increased by 54.3%.
Of course, in the future, the energy industry will also face the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the return to normal global supply chain, and the dual-carbon strategy. Whether it can continue to maintain rapid growth is worth paying attention to.
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Reverse attack of the strong provincial capital
This year, not only did traditional strong provincial capitals such as Chengdu and Wuhan achieve another breakthrough, but some provincial capitals that have always been "weak" have also reached a new level of economic strength.
Not long ago, Fujian Fuzhou, Nanchang, Jiangxi, Nanning, Guangxi, Guiyang, Guizhou, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, and Taiyuan, Shanxi both put "Strong provincial capital on the agenda". Some places even shouted the slogan "If the provincial capital is strong, the whole province will be strong, and if the provincial capital is prosperous, the whole province will be prosperous." (See "Strong Provincial Capital! 7 more provincial capital cities have collectively announced")
In the past year, the economic strength of many provincial capitals has improved:
Shenyang is approaching the top 30 cities, returning to the position of the largest provincial capital in Northeast China html l3
Fuzhou jumped to the top 20 cities,
Taiyuan ranked among the top 50 cities,
The ranking of provincial capitals such as Jinan, Hefei, and Nanchang has also improved significantly.
Among them, the most typical one is Fuzhou, which not only jumped to the top 20 cities, but also returned to the position of Fujian's largest city.
In Fujian Province, it has long been a pattern of "three cities standing together": Fuzhou is the capital, Quanzhou is an economically strong city, and Xiamen is a special economic zone, a city with independent planning status and a sub-provincial city.
In 2021, Fuzhou's GDP reached 1132.448 billion yuan, while Quanzhou's GDP reached 1130.417 billion yuan and Xiamen's GDP reached 703.39 billion yuan.
This means that Fuzhou has returned to Fujian's largest economic market with a leading advantage of 2 billion yuan after more than 20 years.
Behind this, there is no need for the help of strong provincial capital strategy .
Last year, Fujian issued the "Several Opinions on Supporting Fuzhou to Implement the Strategy for Strengthening Provincial Capital", supports Fuzhou to create a national central city, vigorously support Fuzhou to become bigger and stronger, and enhance the radiation and driving force of provincial capital cities.
This means that Fuzhou not only needs to be a strong provincial capital, but also compete for the national central city. You should know that Xiamen, which belongs to the same province, has also proposed the idea of creating a national central city.
Although Fuzhou returns to the position of Fujian's largest city, the healthy competition between Fuzhou and Xiamen and Quanzhou will continue.
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Northeast
Northeast
Northeast
Northeast has 4 major central cities: Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, and Harbin.
All four cities are ranked sub-provincial cities , accounting for more than a quarter of the sub-provincial cities in the country (15 in total).
According to the analysis of "China's Urban Trends", the reason why the four northeastern cities were able to advance all employees was because in the 1990s when the sub-provincial cities were established, the Northeast economy was still at the forefront in the country.
Later, sub-provincial cities did not perform any expansion, which also led to trillion-strong cities such as Zhengzhou, Changsha, and Hefei are still just ordinary provincial capitals.
However, in recent years, Northeast economically strong cities have been successively overtaken by other provincial capitals. In addition to the economic census in previous years, the GDP of many Northeast cities that had already exceeded 700 billion yuan has been squeezed and has returned to the process of climbing to 700 billion yuan again.
After 2020, development in all parts of the Northeast has been on track.
Judging from the economic data in 2021, Dalian ranked first in the Northeast with 782.59 billion yuan, ranking 29th in the country.
Shenyang GDP reached 724.9 billion yuan, surpassing Kunming and Changchun, ranking 31st, and returning to the position of the largest provincial capital in Northeast China.
Changchun GDP is about 700 billion yuan, ranking among the 30-40th, and Harbin GDP is 535.1 billion yuan, ranking among the 50th.
In the next few years, the Northeast is expected to have the first trillion-dollar city.
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Who is the next trillion-dollar city?
Currently, there are 24 trillion GDP cities in the mainland, including 18 in the south and 6 in the north.
Guangdong holds 4 seats, ranking first with Jiangsu, with Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan all exceeding one trillion yuan.
The six trillion cities in the north are: Beijing, Tianjin, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Jinan and Xi'an.
So, who is the next trillion-dollar city?
It can be seen that after Dongguan advanced, there are obvious faults in cities of 900 billion, which means that 2022 may be a year without a new trillion-dollar city. (See "Another trillion-dollar GDP City Birth")
Currently, there are 4 cities in the 800 billion tier: Changzhou, Jiangsu, Yantai, Shandong, Tangshan, Hebei, and Xuzhou, Jiangsu.
These cities are expected to be among the trillion-dollar cities in the next two years and slower before 2025.
. In the 700 billion scale, there are Dalian, Wenzhou, Kunming, Shenyang, Weifang and other cities. These places are likely to be born in about five years, and the Northeast region is also expected to achieve a breakthrough of 0 trillion cities.
Of course, as China's total economic output exceeds 3/4 of the United States, the provincial economy has climbed to more than 12 trillion yuan, and the urban economy has also exceeded 4 trillion yuan. The value of trillion-dollar cities will be significantly different from the past.
At that time,
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