Recently, Kweichow Moutai broke a new low and led to a significant adjustment in the liquor sector. Liquor stocks have been weak recently, which is completely opposite to pharmaceutical stocks, which is parted ways with the "drinking and taking medicine" market in previous years.
On October 21, Kweichow Moutai closed down 1.19% again. Since the beginning of this month, Moutai has fallen sharply, with a cumulative decline of 13.27%.
On the other hand, pharmaceutical stocks have emerged from a rebound.
On the one hand, this may be related to the institutional adjustment and stock exchange.
Foreign capital significantly reduced its holdings of liquor
in the past week, with the net outflow of northbound funds of 6.3 billion yuan, of which the top five industries were reduced: food and beverage, automobile, banking, building materials, and power equipment; the top five industries were increased: pharmaceutical and biological, non-ferrous metals , media, computers, and basic chemicals.
stock level, the top five northbound funds reduce their holdings: Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye , Tongwei Co., Ltd. , China Merchants Bank , China Micro Company ; the top five increase positions are: Satellite Petrochemical , CATL , Gigabit Innovation , Pioneer Intelligent, Ningbo Bank .
From the current sectors where funds are active, institutional funds tend toward three directions. is the first to repair the valuation at low levels such as medicine and medical , is the second to the Intelligent Innovation with strong expectations of import substitution, and photovoltaic , energy storage and other old track stocks. After the short-term market rebound sentiment is released, you should pay attention to the pullback risk of concept stock . The sector will also enter a differentiation period, the core leaders will be more sustainable, and stocks with low-level rebounds also have active opportunities. In the medium term, you can wait for adjustments and continue to pay attention to the above directions.
liquor sales are stable but only stable
Previously, since this month, on the one hand, the travel data during the National Day holiday was average, and consumption scenarios were limited under the epidemic; on the other hand, news such as " ban on alcohol " aggravated market panic.
From the third quarter, the whole price of various liquor brands decreased around the Mid-Autumn Festival. The sales of liquor were affected by the recurrence of the epidemic and the stricter management, and the inventory in various regions remained flat or increased. Obviously, consumption is limited, and overall it does not reach the level of the same period last year.
Dongwu Securities believes that overall, the epidemic has indeed had an impact on actual sales, and some wine companies have slightly higher inventory, but compared with third- and fourth-tier small sauce wines, the demand for high-end + regional sub-high-end leaders is stable, terminal sales are normal, and inventory pressure is controllable.
Moutai is less affected by the epidemic. At present, the wholesale price in most areas remains stable, and the inventory in most areas is about half a month, which remains benign; Wuliangye's wholesale price fluctuates little, and some areas such as Jiangsu slightly declined after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Sichuan, Jiangsu and other regions currently have inventory for about one month, and Henan, South China is about 20 days; Laojiao North China region is good in sales, low-level Guojiao growth rate is impressive, and the wholesale price has slightly declined after the Mid-Autumn Festival, but the fluctuation is not large. Sichuan, Jiangsu and other regions have inventory for 1-1.5 months.
Although residents' consumption capacity may not be much weakened, most channels and terminals are more cautious this year.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and the Spring Festival, mainly destocking and pressure on the purchase of the goods, and continue to pay attention to subsequent sales. If subsequent scenarios recover in an orderly manner, sales are expected to be further improved. High-end wines will still perform relatively better, and the sub-high-end pressure will be greater.
liquor sales have dropped continuously, and the logic of high-end has driven the stock price to rise
In fact, the decline in my country's liquor production in recent years has been relatively obvious.
According to statistics, my country's liquor production has been declining continuously since 2016. From 2017 to 2021, my country's liquor production was 11.981 million kiloliters, 8.712 million kiloliters, 7.859 million kiloliters, 7.407 million kiloliters, and 7.156 million kiloliters, respectively. It is expected that by 2022, the liquor production will further drop to around 6.9 million kiloliters.
Compared with 2017, my country's liquor production has dropped by at least 40% in the past five years.
But what is strange is that since production and sales have both declined, why have liquor stocks still risen well in recent years?
The reason is consumption upgrade. High-end liquor has seized the market for low-end liquor. High-end liquor continues to rise in prices, and the increase in unit prices has driven the performance of liquor companies to improve, so it reflects that the company's profits have increased and the stock price has risen.
However, can liquor continue to rise in price? Can high-end wines maintain high sales?
Some people believe that the process of upgrading liquor consumption is coming to an end and may come to an end. With the fluctuations in the economic cycle, it is unlikely that high-end liquor will reappear the rapid price increase of the previous ones. Therefore, liquor stocks have been fluctuating at a high level.
In the long run, the post-60s and 70s born in the 1960s and 1970s have a large population, and currently they have the most wealth in society. It is still doubtful whether the post-90s and 2000s can have continuous consumption motivation. In addition to different consumption habits, the population size is also different from before.
Pharmaceutical stocks have been at historical lows after the adjustment of valuation in the past two years, while liquor stocks are fluctuating at a high level. The recent activity of pharmaceuticals has caused the move of institutional funds. In the short term, the adjustment of liquor has not yet ended, so it is recommended to avoid it.
Pharmaceutical stocks have a low valuation, logical marginal improvement
As of last Friday (2022/10/14), the GEM's P/E ratio was 55 times (historical quantile 33%); the electronics sector's P/E ratio was 32 times (historical quantile 22%), computers 67 times (historical quantile 71%), electrical equipment 41 times (historical quantile 29%), food and beverage 35 times (historical quantile 48%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological 33 times (historical quantile 11%).
It can be seen that the cost-effectiveness of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology is highlighted. In addition to the suppression of sector valuation by the previous centralized procurement, the recent market has not only rebound logic, but also new support policies for pharmaceuticals.
policy proposes, "Promote the construction of a healthy China, put the protection of people's health in a strategic position of priority development, establish a policy system for reproductive support, implement a national strategy for actively responding to population aging, promote the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, improve the public health system, strengthen the prevention, control and treatment system and emergency capacity building of major epidemics, and effectively curb the spread of major infectious diseases." Shouchuang Securities recommends focusing on the three main lines of traditional Chinese medicine, new medical infrastructure and independent controllable/import substitution.
New medical infrastructure promotes the expansion of the industry, and domestic substitution is further accelerated. With the efforts of new medical infrastructure, medical institutions have entered a new round of expansion cycle, and the demand for related medical equipment will continue to rise. At present, more than 200 billion yuan of medical equipment loan demand has been reported nationwide. With the gradual implementation of fiscal interest subsidy loan , the demand for medical equipment is expected to be released quickly. The main sub-track tracks have broad space for domestic substitution, the dividends of domestic substitution policies continue to be released, and domestic mid-to-high-end equipment is expected to increase rapidly.
China's population structure has changed, and great opportunities for medical services are brewing under the trend of aging. my country's social aging is intensifying, and the number of elderly people over 60 years old has increased rapidly from 178 million in 2010 to 260 million in 2020, and the proportion of the total population has increased from 13.3% in 2010 to 18.7% in 2020. The expansion of aging groups has brought about a significant increase in the demand for medical services; in recent years, the domestic medical system has gradually improved and the per capita income level has increased, which has promoted a significant increase in the frequency of medical treatment for the elderly.
This article is from Tonghuashun Finance
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