What surprised investors was not the market decline, but the liquor index among the two leading sectors, especially the big guillotine-like guillotine-like dark line of Kweichow Moutai.

Product / Company Research Office

Text/Huai

00,000 people are looking forward to it, A shares ushered in a dark door after the holiday. All major indexes will be completed on October 10th. What surprised investors was not the decline of market , but the liquor index among the two leading sectors, especially the guillotine guillotine -like large negative line in Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH).

As the largest market value of stocks in the two markets, the weight of Kweichow Moutai in major indexes and the position of investors in the minds can be imagined. In a sense, Kweichow Moutai has served as the stabilizer of in the A-share market. Many institutions and retail investors judge the market position based on the performance of Moutai's stock price, and therefore decides the position in . Therefore, the plunge in Moutai’s stock price on the first day after the holiday naturally touched the hearts of many people. It goes without saying that the appearance of this yin line caused some panic during the trading session that day.

Kweichow Moutai's decline is objectively related to fundamentals . After Ding Xiongjun took office, he abolished the unboxing order, restarted the e-commerce self-operated platform, and launched the second-high-end new product 1935. The company's fundamentals generally improved. Although the sales of liquor in the third quarter were not optimistic and the effects of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day were not very good, these market fluctuations actually have little to do with Kweichow Moutai, and its main product, Feitian Moutai, is still hard to find.

However, because of this, Feitian Moutai cannot raise prices in small steps like other brands, thus effectively increasing the company's profits, which makes it difficult for Kweichow Moutai to make a significant breakthrough in performance. As a result, its stock price fluctuated repeatedly between 1,800 and 2,000 per share, giving the market the impression that it was calm.

Moutai's decline is a rebound from the perspective of stock price technical analysis. In the early stage, during the entire market decline, Moutai's stock price always fluctuated around the annual line. After this big negative line comes out, it is considered to be the same as the entire market trend. There is no end to the collapse of the nest. Unless there are individual small-cap stocks with high control over the market, it is almost impossible for a large-cap stock to stand out. Therefore, the decline of Kweichow Moutai is not caused by fundamentals, but by the invisible hand of the market. Of course, it is not ruled out that some short institutions will follow the trend to suppress it. Otherwise, it will be difficult to understand that the FTSE China A50 stock index futures fell more than the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index 2% on the same day.

The top 5 market value of domestic A-share liquor sector. Among the stocks, in addition to Kweichow Moutai, NO,.1, among the remaining Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), and Yanghe Shares (002304.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu has the best fundamental performance in recent years, followed by Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe Shares, and finally Wuliangye.

Thanks to the last attempt of Li Qiuxi before leaving office, Shanxi Fenjiu re-carried the banner of fragrance type liquor and successfully "fighted Yangtze River " to realize its long-cherished wish to go out of provinces and circles. At present, its stock market value has surpassed Luzhou Laojiao, jumping to third in the sector. However, the market is still waiting and watching whether Yuan Qingmao can stabilize the previous good momentum at a high level after taking over.

Luzhou Laojiao Liu Miao was promoted in the first half of the year. He is a native soldier and is a successor. Therefore, the company's revenue performance is relatively stable, but there are no surprises. The several new products launched in recent years seem to have failed to open up the situation. Therefore, the market is still observing whether Luzhou Laojiao can truly open up the second growth curve after Guojiao 1573.

Zhang Liandong of Yanghe Co., Ltd. has been in office for more than a year, and has strongly promoted the equity incentive and sales reward and punishment mechanisms internally, which has greatly improved the company's once-long sales. The 2022 semi-annual report brought a lot of surprises to the market. Therefore, before the financial report came out, the company's stock price rose well. The problem with Yanghe is that in the sub-high-end field, it has never been able to launch a large single product that is popular in the market, resulting in a low proportion of high-end products in the revenue structure.

Wuliangye's stock price performance is the worst among the TOP5. Although the new leader Zeng Congqin is an airborne soldier, he has been in the company for more than two years, which is a seamless connection.After he became accused of the company's market revenue and financial indicators seemed to have not improved much, and the situation of high receivables and bank notes did not ease. The contract liabilities decreased significantly in the first half of the year, which was suspected of taking advantage of the old capital.

Overall, the stock price performance of the liquor sector is relatively close to the fundamentals in A-shares. Even so, after Moutai, the Dinghai Sword, fell, the entire sector followed. It can be seen that in the capital market, sometimes the invisible hand often plays a more effective role than the visible fundamentals.