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1 October 18 forecast 6 commodities
will be bullish in the future:
Palm oil , coke, coking coal
will be bearish in the future:
Styrene , cotton yarn, rapeseed meal
will be bearish in the future:Styrene , cotton yarn, rapeseed meal
palm oil ↗
Latest price (2022-10-17): 8030 yuan/ton
Analysis points:
On October 17, the domestic palm oil futures market fell sharply, spot prices fell down, and the mainstream quotation fell to 8030 yuan/ton, a single-day decline of 1.59%. The foreign market Malaysia palm oil market fell sharply, dragging down the domestic palm oil futures market, the spot market was suppressed and the market fell.
future market forecast:
Due to the increase in rigid demand for palm oil terminals, the future market will still stop falling and rise.
Coke ↗
Latest price (2022-10-17): 2746.67 yuan/ton
Analysis points:
coke market price is temporarily stable, the market atmosphere is generally stable and strong, and some cities in Shanxi are still restricted, and the supply of raw materials and coke transportation are affected to varying degrees. The production and sales situation in other regions has not changed much, and the inventory in the factory is generally low. Coking companies have a good attitude recently. Some companies in Shanxi and Shaanxi have raised the ex-factory price of coke 100-110 yuan/ton. In terms of downstream demand, steel mills have recently started construction and maintained a high level stability, iron and water production is at a high level, and the overall demand for coke is relatively stable, and coke demand remains. However, the overall sales of steel market have weakened recently, and the principle of replenishing the stock on demand is maintained for coke. The price of raw material coking coal has risen, which has certain support for coking costs, and coking companies have a strong mentality.
future market forecast:
is expected to run stably and strongly in the short term, and the future market will focus on the impact of transportation conditions and the start of coke steel enterprises on coke prices.
coking coal ↗
Latest price (2022-10-17): 2600 yuan/ton
Analysis points:
coking coal price is mainly up to the price. In terms of production, coal mines have a certain impact on the overall output of coking coal due to transportation, public health incidents and safety. In terms of downstream coke, we mainly support the price and wait-and-see price. In terms of downstream demand, steel mills have recently started construction at high levels and remain stable. The overall demand for coke is relatively stable, and coke still exists. In terms of downstream coke, the demand for coking coal has been acceptable in the near future, but due to the impact of the public health incident, the supply of coking coal has been tightened.
future market forecast:
comprehensively looks at coking coal prices and running, and specifically depends on downstream market demand.
styrene ↘
Latest price (2022-10-17): 8800.00 yuan/ton
Analysis points:
According to the monitoring of the business community, the spot price of styrene fluctuated and fell recently. International oil prices fell, pure benzene market fell, cost support was poor, ports arrived one after another, styrene inventory rose month-on-month, and under multiple pressures, the styrene spot market fell.
future market forecast:
downstream spot demand for styrene is weak, and it is expected that the styrene market will fall mainly in the short term.
cotton yarn ↘
latest price (2022-10-17): 26,200 yuan/ton (32S)
Analysis points:
Procurement atmosphere of cotton yarn is light. Although the cotton market has boosted slightly, downstream spring orders have not met expectations. Textile companies replenish their warehouses as needed. In addition, the price of cotton in mainland China is relatively high, textile companies' spot profits of cotton yarn have narrowed significantly, and the cotton yarn market has fallen slightly. The traditional peak consumption season of the textile industry has not ushered in the expected results. Under the influence of the Xinjiang cotton ban, yarn companies are cautious in purchasing, and the demand side recovery pressure is high. The market is pessimistic about future consumption. The trading atmosphere of the cotton cloth market has weakened, and the weaving factory has maintained small order shipments, and the production and sales rate of is lower than that of the same period in previous years.
future market forecast:
is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term.
Rapeseed Meal ↘
Latest Price (2022-10-17): 4228 yuan/ton
Analysis points:
17 Zheng Rapeseed Meal Futures fell 3.17%, and rapeseed Meal spot fell.The peak season for aquaculture is basically over, and the demand for rapeseed meal is limited, suppressing the price of rapeseed meal. In October, the arrival of rapeseed was limited, and rapeseed meal output decreased. The global rapeseed harvest pattern has been set, and the weather has cooled down, and rapeseed meal will usher in the traditional off-season.
future market forecast:
is expected to fluctuate and run weakly.
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