Reporter of the Economic Business: He Jianling Editor of the Economic Business: Wu Yongjiu
Picture source: Photo Network_500206124
Hey, it is indeed "the stock life is like life, and everyone beats the drums"!
Just today, when "Ningwang" CATL continues to fall and its stock price is approaching the annual line, a well-known brokerage firm has come out to sing for short, and this sing is extraordinary!
Image source: Chuangchuang Securities Research Report
Niuyanjun (Multi-Jing Niuyan: njcjnews) noticed that today's news seemed to "grind the insult" of CATL's stock price: Last night, Chuangchuang Securities released a research report, and the title was very eye-catching - "How much can CATL fall?"
Chief economist Wei Zhichao and research assistant Wang Weiran are researching The report pointed out: "Refer to the stock price trend of Kweichow Moutai in 2021. Through fitting, we judge that CATL's adjustment may not end, and there may still be room for a 20% decline in the future."
Although the chief economist expressed his views on stocks , it felt a bit strange, but as soon as this was said, investors who held CATL must be cold and the stock price was also down.
opened lower in the morning less than 2 minutes, and CATL was killed by a big sell order of more than 10,000 lots of approximately 525 million yuan. The stock price quickly fell to a drop of nearly 5%, reaching a minimum of 491 yuan per share, and further fell in the afternoon, reaching a minimum of 489 yuan per share. As of the close, CATL fell 5.43% to 489.99 yuan per share, officially testing important annual line support.
CATL daily K-line chart
Niuyanjun (Multiple Economic Niuyan: njcjnews) feels that the time when this bearish research report was issued was too coincidental, just when CATL's stock price shrank by 30% from its historical high and fell by 470 billion yuan in market value. According to the calculation of another 20%, it means that CATL will fall below 400 yuan per share, and more than 200 billion yuan will evaporate? Isn't it a bit too sensational?
At the same time, Niuyanjun (Multi-Jing Niuyan: njcjnews) also noticed that the above-mentioned chief economist Wei Zhichao, the Chief Economist of the Chuangye Securities, is suspected to have launched a conference call for this research report tonight, which is a bit like "striking while the iron is hot". However, as of press time, there was news that the conference call had been temporarily cancelled, and it would be understandable if it was true - after all, it would be enough to get enough popularity.
Image source: Internet
As usual, Niuyanjun (Multiple Jingniuyan: njcjnews) will also share this research report with you. How to obtain it: enter the homepage of the official account and send "0211" in the dialog box to get it.
Niuyanjun (Missue Niuyan: njcjnews) roughly looked at this research report. The research report pointed out that CATL faces a similar market environment for Kweichow Moutai in 2021, with three main points: (1) The rising logic has been challenged; (2) The yield of US bond has risen sharply; (3) The stock price has exceeded the rise and the track is highly crowded, forming a negative feedback that kills more. The research report believes that both are similar paths: due to various favorable factors, the market is sought after and is seriously out of valuation. When the rising logic is challenged, an external catalyst triggers a downward market.
If you want to ask me what I think, Niuyanjun (My Jingniuyan: njcjnews) agrees with the third point, but has other opinions on the first point.
won’t talk about the third point. The current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of CATL over 110 times is undoubtedly high. First, the promotion of new energy vehicles is still in its starting stage at present, and CATL has a lot of room for imagination in the future. Now it is difficult to convince people that the logic of rising is challenged.
But suddenly, Niuyanjun (Niuyan: njcjnews) came up with an idea: the organization suddenly sings in the sky or sings too much, does it mean that the reverse operation opportunity of Xiaosan has come?
The most typical example is the story of CITIC Securities being "slapped in the face" on Kweichow Moutai. On February 10 last year, when Kweichow Moutai's stock price reached 2,500 yuan per share, it was as high as the peak, CITIC Securities released a research report saying that it would raise the one-year target price of Kweichow Moutai to 3,000 yuan and maintain the "buy" rating.
Kweichow Moutai daily K-line chart
What broke the hearts of "Mao fans" was that on February 18, the first trading day after the research report, Kweichow Moutai hit a historical high of 2,608 yuan/share during the trading session, and then began to quickly go down, falling to a low of 1,525 yuan/share. Now a whole year has passed, Kweichow Moutai is less than 1,900 yuan/share, and the target price given by CITIC Securities has completely failed.
What’s even more strange is that when CITIC Securities sang a lot of high-profile Kweichow Moutai, it was the time when Kweichow Moutai reached its peak. If Xiaosan rushed in after seeing the research report, he would probably be trapped until now. This has to be said to be a typical "reverse indicator".
So, on the other hand, now the first securities are short-speaking CATL, is it also an opportunity for Xiaosan to buy stocks in reverse, and villas rely on the sea"? This question is here, and I will leave it to time to answer it.
In addition, Niuyanjun (Mer period Niuyan: njcjnews) would like to remind everyone today to pay attention to the signs of "changing the sky" of A shares : "low valuation" large-cap blue-chip stock may be popular for a while.
The most typical example today is , which has a "unchanged for thousands of years" and a total market value of nearly one trillion yuan. It closed up more than 7%, standing on the annual line and hitting a new high in more than three months.
China Life Insurance today's time-sharing chart
The most typical example after the festival is , which has a total market value of over one trillion yuan. Today, the five consecutive positive days also hit a new high of more than three months, closing up more than 5%.
China Petroleum Daily K-line chart
Judging from the collapse of "Ningwang" and the rampage of traditional "elephants", it is obvious that large-cap stocks that combine "low valuation", "high dividends", and " stagflation in the past few years" are actively promoting by funds. In fact, statistics show that since this year, the low-valuation sectors of A-shares have always played a leading role. Among the 16 Shenwan style indexes in Choice data, only Shenwan low price-to-book ratio and Shenwan low price-to-earnings ratio have risen since this year; and the top three in the bottom drops are Shenwan high price-to-book ratio, Shenwan high price-to-earnings ratio , and Shenwan high price stock index.
, this is actually easy to understand: A-shares are like this. If they are too high, they have to take a break and play with low-priced stocks. This is just a cycle of reincarnation. If stock traders are too obsessed with a certain type or a certain stock, don’t blame others for saying that you are a "silly fool", but you don’t know that following the trend is the key!
(This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading. It is at your own risk of entering the market.)
Daily Economic News
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