At 6:00 a.m. local time on March 9, 2022, the 20th presidential election in South Korea officially began voting.
Yonghap News Agency reported that among the 98% of the votes that have been counted, Yoon Seo-yeol, the candidate for the largest opposition National Power, was elected as the 20th President of South Korea with a vote of 48.59%. His opponent, the ruling presidential candidate, Lee Jae-ming, won 47.79%. The difference in vote rates between the two was only 0.8 percentage points, about 260,000 votes.
The 20th presidential election is called the "lowest favorable" and "most difficult to predict" election since South Korea's democratization. Due to factors such as the "scandalous" of multiple candidates, the "front-line alliance" of opposition parties, and the frequent re-elections of swing voters, the support ratings of "Li Yin and the two" are comparable.
"Under the turmoil of international situation and the pressure of South Korea's economic situation, this game of progress and conservative South Korea's political arena may change the pattern of Northeast Asia in the next five years." Wang Xiaoke, associate professor at the Northeast Asia Institute of Jilin University, told Southern Weekend reporters.
urban circle becomes the "final sprint area"
At 22:00 on March 8, 2022, Lee Jae-ming left Hongi University Square in Seoul and ended the 22-day campaign.
57-year-old Li Jae-ming was born in the civilian class. He worked as a worker and a human rights lawyer. After entering politics in 2004, Li Jae-ming served as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi Province.
In 2020, the new crown epidemic broke out in the South Korean New World Church. Li Zaiming sent more than 40 civil servants to search the Xin World headquarters and obtained a list of key believers. This move left him with a good image of humility, fairness and good governance of the economy in the hearts of the Korean public.
On the last canvassing day of the South Korean presidential election, the metropolitan area with 22 million votes became the last canvassing area for the government and the opposition. On the afternoon of March 8, Lee Jae-ming went to Paju City , Incheon City and Guangming City around Seoul to give his final tour speech.
At 7 o'clock that night, candlelight lit up in Cheongxi Square near Gwanghwamun, Seoul, and supporters of the progressive camp waved blue and yellow balloons.
Lee Jae-ming stood at the "Candle Light Revolution" square where Park Geun-hye stepped down five years ago, and delivered the final speech with the slogan "Unity of the People". The day before yesterday, Song Yingji, the leader of the joint Democratic Party, attended the rally with injuries.
htmlOn December 8, Yoon Seok-young set off from Jeju Road in southern South Korea, passing through conservative traditional ticket warehouses such as Busan City, Daegu , etc.61-year-old Yoon Seo-young is a political amateur, but he has participated in the investigation of Park Geun-hye’s “close interfering in politics” and Lee Myung-bak’s corruption case, so he has won a good reputation as a “just prosecutor”.
Yoon Seo-yeol caters to the anger of South Korean public opinion towards interest groups and "social injustice". In the campaign, he claimed to be the "president summoned by the people", and he shouted campaign slogans such as "restore justice and common sense" and "build a country that is no longer angry".
Over the past week, the opposition National Power Party's campaign has focused on Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. On the afternoon of March 8, former presidential candidate of the National Power Party, Ahn Cheol-soo, , canvassed with Yoon Seok-yeol in Busan .
At around 8 o'clock that night, Seoul Municipal Square formed a red ocean. The final oath-taking event accompanied by South Korean lawmakers Hong Jun-pyo , former lawmakers Liu Chengmin , National Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok and others were held. Yoon Seok-yeol has been paying homage to the subway station where young people gather until the early morning of March 9.
"The week before the election was the darkest week, and this was the foggy period of the South Korean election," said Hong Hyung-sik, director of the South Korean-Japanese Research Institute.
In order to ensure the fairness of the election, the South Korean Election Law stipulates that from 0:00 on March 3 to 19:30 on March 9, 19:30 on March 9, 19:30 on March 9, it will not allow 19 domestic poll agencies to announce new poll results.
Before the "poll ban period", the approval ratings of multiple candidates are difficult to distinguish. According to the final data released by the South Korean polling agency Realmeter on March 2 before the election, Lee Jae-ming's approval rating was 43.1%, while Yoon Seok-yeol was 46.3%.
In the week before the election in the fog, the South Korean election ushered in an unprecedentedly enthusiastic "pre-vote".According to statistics from South Korea's National Election Commission, in the "pre-voting" from March 4 to 5, the turnout rate was as high as 37%, an increase of more than ten percentage points year-on-year.
Many Korean political figures also participated in the "pre-voting". On the morning of March 5, former South Korean President Park Geun-hye participated in the vote near Samsung Seoul Hospital in blue, which sparked speculation in South Korean politics. Yoon Seok-yeol's wife Kim Jian-hee, wearing a red scarf, voted alone near Seocho-dong residence in Seo-kuo-dong, Seoul.
The government and the opposition have different understandings of the super high "pre-returnine". The National Power Party believes that this means "the Korean people desire regime alternation", while the Common Democratic Party commented that "this is a gathering of support from both parties."
With the pressure of South Korea to exceed 200,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in a single day, South Korea's Central Election Commission has also shown signs of "management chaos". Polling stations in many places have problems such as long queues and insufficient ballot boxes for confirmed voters. Some polling stations even use plastic baskets and garbage bags as ballot boxes.
On February 15, 2022, Yoon Seo-hyo (Chinese) participated in the election campaign in Seoul, South Korea. (Xinhua News Agency/Photo)
Opposition Party "Quickly Joining the Column"
Less than a week before South Korea's general election, the presidential candidates of the two opposition parties decided to "join the opposition." On March 3, Yoon Seok-young and Ahn Cheol-soo announced the "singleization" of candidates for both parties with the slogan of building a "better South Korea". An Cheol-soo decided to withdraw from the election and retweeted Yoon Seo-yeon.
"Opinional United" was the most worrying thing about the ruling party's Common Democratic Party at that time. In an interview with South Korea's Joong Ilbo, a relevant person in the Communist Democratic Party said with concern that this was the "worst situation" encountered by the ruling party in the election.
Historically, former South Korean president Kim Dae-jung was the 15th South Korean presidential election in 1997, and the joint president of freedom and democracy. That year, Kim Dae-jung finally won the election.
election is in a stalemate, and the opposition party's "quick alliance" move undoubtedly stimulated the direction of the vote. Yonhap News Agency believes that the "Yun An United" will deeply affect the final pattern of the South Korean election.
An Zhexiu's career spans medical, computer and political circles. In recent years, Ahn Cheol-soo has participated in the election for president or mayor in South Korea three times, and both withdrew from the middle and late stages of the election, and is nicknamed "political migratory bird" by the Korean people. In February 2022, Ahn Cheol-soo extended an "olive branch" to Yoon Seo-yeo many times, but the two sides failed to unite due to disagreement.
"An Zhexiu is good at calculating and is a typical political speculator. He expected that there was no possibility of winning the election in this general election, so it would be better to join forces with Yoon Xiyue to seek self-protection." Wang Xiaoke, associate professor at the Northeast Asia Institute of Jilin University, analyzed.
In the last poll data of the South Korea National Indicators Survey (NBS), Lee Jae-ming's approval rating was 40%, Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating was 40%, and Ahn Cheol-soo's approval rating was 9%. Southern Weekend reporters compared the data of several South Korean polls and found that since the election, An Zhexiu's average approval rating has been roughly between 7% and 8%.
The Korean National Daily analyzed that even if only half of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters changed to support Yoon Seok-yeol, Yoon Seok-yeol will be far ahead of Lee Jae-ming.
Because Ahn Cheol-soo's voters are relatively diverse, votes may not necessarily flow completely to Yoon Seo-yeol, and there is also the possibility of changing to vote for Lee Jae-ming or abstaining from the right.
Wang Xiaoke believes that An Zhexiu's supporters are mainly concentrated in the conservatives who are on the right in the center. Taking the 20s and 30s as an example, Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters are mostly young people who rely on personal struggles to enter the middle class, while Yoon Seok-yeol's supporters are more inclined to lower-class youth.
In the past few months, two leading candidates, Lee Jae-ming and Yoon Seo-yeol, have launched a fierce "stainless attack", and this election has long turned into a "scandal contest". South Korea's Gallup poll showed that South Korean voters' non-favoriteness towards the two candidates is much higher than that, and the non-favoriteness is even twice as high as that of the favorable person.
In the South Korean election, which is known as the "lowest favorable person in history", some voters support An Cheol-soo as a "helpless move". Therefore, "Yin'an United" may not necessarily have a "synergy effect (1+1>2)".
"Some supporters felt deeply betrayed by An Cheol-soo's political party, and it is likely to have a 'reverse unity' effect, and they changed to vote for Lee Jae-ming on the election voting day."Li Jiacheng, associate professor at the School of International Economics and Political Science at Liaoning University and an expert on the Korean Peninsula, told Southern Weekend reporters that only 30% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters will vote for Yoon Seo-yeol.
On February 15, 2022, Lee Jae-ming participated in an election campaign in Seoul, South Korea. (Xinhua News Agency/Photo)
South Korea's "conservatism" has intensified, and young women have become key voters
In this election, young voters aged 20 to 30 are regarded as a barometer of the general election, and this group is most likely to change their support objects at the moment of voting.
"Young Korean voters are extremely irrational. They have low loyalty and recognition for a single party, and they are prone to change candidates due to scandals or campaign policies. "Wang Xiaoke said.
South Korea's Gaiplow poll on January 21, 2022 showed that more than 36% of young people in their twenties would rather change their votes depending on the situation or simply give up voting. Among them, according to the South Korean Times, the support rate of young people in 25 districts in Seoul's 25 districts has changed the most significantly.
The two leading candidates did not attract more young and middle-aged voters.
On March 4, 2022, the poll results of the South Korean National Index Survey (NBS) showed that in terms of age, Yoon Seo-yue's support rate is ahead of those over 60 years old. Lee Jae-ming's support rate is more popular among those aged 30 to 59. According to Korean media Ohmynews, An Cheol-soo won It has received support from 20% of young voters.
20 to 30 are the group of people with the greatest pressure on survival in South Korea and the most dissatisfied with the ruling party. Due to the failure of the Moon Jae-in government in real estate, employment policies, etc., some young Koreans have been constantly making arguments of "regime alternation".
At the same time, Korean society is gradually becoming conservative. In the South Korean poll in November 2021, only 22% of Korean voters called themselves progressives, a decrease of 15 percentage points from 2017; more than 30% of voters considered themselves conservatives, an increase of 3 percentage points from 2017. In the Seoul and Busan mayoral elections in April 2021, more than 70% of men turned to the conservative camp.
From the perspective of votes and regional distribution, the traditional voting positions of progressives and conservatives are still stable. Polls from South Korea's three major broadcasters show that Yoon Seo-hye won 60% of voters in the "conservative heart" Daegu City, and Lee Jae-ming won only 19% of the approval rating.
Gender issue has also become the main competition area for candidates. In recent years, the feminist movement in South Korea has emerged, and the progressive government represented by Moon Jae-in has introduced countermeasures such as "parliamentary gender quota" and "improving women's salary". Shortly after
, Yoon Seo-hye announced that she would "speak out" for the young male group. He invited Lee Jun-seok, who is only 36 years old in the National Power Party, to join the campaign team. Lee Jun-seok is trying his best to safeguard the gender quota on gender issues. Men, there are a group of loyal young male supporters behind them. In January 2022, Yoon Seo-yeol even claimed that after being elected, the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family will be abolished.
Lee followed the "female-friendly" policy of the Moon Jae-in government during his election campaign, and established female creative spaces and other measures to attract female voters.
html Female voters aged 120 to 49 have no obvious preference for "Lee-Yun". The young women who support Ahn Cheol-soo voted about 940,000 votes, far exceeding "Lee-Yun-soo".On the voting day of the general election, young women who originally supported Ahn Cheol-soo will become key voters. Yeon Jing-young, director of the Institute of Times, believes that "whether their votes flow to Lee Jae-ming becomes the last variable. "
Economic policy "sloganizes", security differences highlight
Economy, people's livelihood, social justice, diplomacy and security are all hot topics for South Korean voters this time. Among them, the candidate's housing market regulation policy has attracted the most attention.
Ordinary voters look forward to political innovation and hope that the new government can solve high housing prices. According to a poll by Gallup, South Korea in July 2021, 78% of respondents are negative about Moon Jae-in's real estate policy The view is four times higher than four years ago.
On March 7, 2022, Lee Jae-ming once again apologized for the Moon Jae-in government's real estate policy when he held an election campaign in the capital area of Seoul. He reiterated his commitment to "supply 3.11 million units nationwide and 1.07 million apartments in Seoul."
Yoon Seo-hye also promised to expand the housing supply and suggested reducing the transfer tax and housing holding tax to alleviate the real estate tax burden.
In other economic policies, Lee Jae-ming advocates social welfare, such as the "national basic income" of 500,000 won per month, the implementation of four-day working days, and the expansion of the proportion of the middle class. In early January 2022, when Lee Zaiming proposed the "New Economic Vision" to Congress, he ambitionly promised that "if I was elected, South Korea will become one of the world's five largest economies, ."
, while Yoon Seo-yeol values "grow first and then distribution", with the policy focus on revitalizing private enterprises and supporting young people's entrepreneurship.
Associate Professor Wang Xiaoke of Jilin University's Northeast Asia Research Institute believes that "Li Jae-ming's economic commitment is too 'shoulder' and it is difficult to implement; while Yoon Seo-yeol is still the conventional economic policy of the Korean conservatives, and it is not good enough."
The candidates of the two parties have the greatest differences in diplomatic security policies. In February 2022, Lee Jae-ming and Yoon Seo-yeol wrote articles on the US Foreign Affairs, each expressing their campaign stance.
57-year-old Lee Jae-ming continued the "pragmatic diplomacy" of the Moon Jae-in government. He encouraged active contact with North Korea, promoted the "denuclearization of the peninsula" through economic cooperation, and asked Japan for apology and compensation for historical issues.
On March 3, 2022, Lee Jae-ming said in a TV debate on the South Korean election that he will retain the Moon Jae-in government's "three no policies", namely, not add the deployment of the THAAD system, , not promote the South Korea-US-Japan military alliance, and not join the US anti-missile defense system.
, and Yoon Seok-yeol criticized the "three no policies" for being too weak, and it sacrificed South Korea's security interests. On February 8, 2022, Yoon Seok-hyuk published an article in Foreign Affairs, saying, "The Moon Jae-in government ignored North Korea's four years of provocation, which not only reversed South Korea's relations, but also weakened South Korea's national security."
In this regard, Yoon Seok-hyuk advocated "dignified diplomacy and strong national security." On the Korean Peninsula issue, he hopes that North Korea will first promise "nuclear-free" and South Korea will then discuss cooperation; give priority to the US-South Korea alliance strategically; and encourage the additional deployment of the THAAD system.
The Korean National Daily said that when Yoon Seo-yeol proposed to additionally deploy the THAAD system, the actual effect and strategic factors of the system were never considered, but just to attract conservative votes.
Lee Jae-ming can still mediate among major powers, maintain 'balanced diplomacy' and reconcile peninsula friction; Yoon Seo-yeol's tough attitude is likely to bring South Korea-North Korea relations back five years ago. "Li Jiacheng, associate professor at the School of International Economics and Political Science, Liaoning University and an expert on the Korean Peninsula, said.
"Blue Wa Dao Curse" enters the general election issue
Moon Jae-in is the 19th president of South Korea. Whether he can leave Blue House is also one of the concerns of the outside world.
Many South Korean presidents have not escaped the "Blue Wa Dao Curse", and the president has been jokingly called "the most dangerous profession in history". In the past ten South Korean presidents have been unable to "get out of poverty", and many people eventually end up "jailed" and "in suicide" Wait for the ending.
Moon Jae-in once came to power with a highly popular president, and has not yet experienced the "lame duck period" in the later period of his reign. South Korea's Gallup poll data in 2021 showed that Moon Jae-in's ruling support rate in the second quarter of his fifth year in office was 38%, the highest level of public expectations for all presidents during the same period.
At present, "the regime change" is now, and Moon Jae-in is very likely to face "political revenge". On February 11, 2022, opposition presidential candidate Yoon Seo-yeol made a harsh statement in a TV debate, "If you are elected as president, you will conduct a liquidation investigation on the Moon Jae-in government. "
Previously, Moon Jae-in had not participated in the presidential election too much out of aversion to suspicion. But just the day after Yoon Seok-hyun publicly threatened to "removal", Moon Jae-in expressed his angry position through the Blue House National Communication Secretary Park Soo-hyun and asked Yoon Seok-hyun to apologize.
"Presidential candidate Yoon Seok-hyun is the darkest legacy of the common Democratic government. "Song Yongji, the leader of the ruling common Democratic Party, also condemned it.
For a time, the government and the opposition were tense, forming a pattern of "presidential battle against opposition presidential candidates".
Associate professor at the School of International Economics and Political Science of Liaoning University and an expert on the Korean Peninsula issue, Lee Ka-sung predicts that if Yoon Seo-yeo comes to power, South Korea's political arena will undergo a significant adjustment. "In the scandals such as the mayoral election in Ulsan City and the speculation of land by Seo-yeo, Moon Jae-in may not escape the investigation of former Prosecutor Yoon Seo-yeo."
When this election enters a white-hot stage, Moon Jae-in also took the initiative to send a signal of political reconciliation to the conservatives. On Christmas Eve in 2021, Moon Jae-in "pardoned former President Park Geun-hye" before the New Year. On March 2, 2022, as the election approaches, Park Geun-hye's sister and conservative Xin Korean Peninsula Party presidential candidate Park Geun-yeon publicly withdrew from the election and instead supported the ruling presidential candidate Lee Jae-ming.
"It can be seen that the centrists in the Conservative Party do not agree with political liquidation very much. "Wang Xiaoke believes that if Yoon Seo-yue insists on "revenge", his personal support rate will be affected, and at the same time it will trigger a strong rebound in the progressive camp and further tear apart the Korean politics.
Southern Weekend reporter Gu Yuebing
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