Introduction: On the evening of August 2, Beijing time, US House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan despite China's solemn warning and some domestic opposition voices in the United States. China immediately announced military exercises around Taiwan Island . China and the United States accused each other of creating tensions, and some countries dominated by the West agreed with the United States, but most countries expressed support for China's position. Recently, Martin Jacques was interviewed by Observer.com . Focusing on the reactions of mainland China, Taiwan and East Asian countries to Pelosi's outbreak in Taiwan, they talked about the nature of Taiwan issue, the evolution of China's role in the region, and the medium- and long-term impact of this matter; they discussed whether China should change its position on the Taiwan issue in the face of Western politicians in the new world pattern, and how to dynamically adjust its communication and interaction model with the United States and the West. This article is the first part, the transcript of the translation interview of Observer.com for readers.
[Interview, Translation/Observer Network Li Zexi]
Observer Network: Hello, Mr. Jacques. The issue that everyone is concerned about recently is that US House Speaker Nancy · Pelosi (Nancy Pelosi 2) ignored China's solemn warning and some domestic opposition voices in the United States visited Taiwan . Do people in the West think that Pelosi's trip is a provocation to China? Do they understand why China takes countermeasures, such as military exercises? If they had no understanding of the Taiwan issue before, do you think China's reaction and subsequent actions before her visit to Taiwan gave China a better understanding of its position?
9 On the 9th, Pelosi tried to explain the Taiwan issue in an NBC interview (video screenshot)
Martin Jacques: I think that in a broad sense, Westerners do pay attention to this kind of thing and do have some understanding of the Taiwan issue. So in this sense, they know there is a troublesome problem here; but I don't think most Westerners really understand this problem. I think there may be more understanding of this in some circles in the United States, because in fact, the Taiwan issue is inseparable from Sino-US relations.
The Taiwan issue has always been under the surface, but as Pelosi visited Taiwan, it attracted a lot of attention within 2 to 3 days, including Europe. But I don't think the West can deeply understand China's position.
I think the problem is that the way mainland China views its connection with Taiwan, that is, the role of history, is similar to that of the West's view of international relations; therefore, to understand China's position, it is necessary to study China's perception of its history, role, and relationship with surrounding regions.
Observer Network: Before Pelosi announced his "upcoming visit to Taiwan", do you think China's response affected her final decision?
Martin Jacques: I think Pelosi has a strong "decision" to visit. She is very tough on China. She is a hawk in the United States about China affairs. She believes that she holds the anti-China banner of "freedom". So I don't think she should be underestimated in this matter, nor should she be underestimated how people in the position of Speaker of the House view their role, or the potential role of this role. This is not unprecedented, but you have to go back to the end of the last century before you can find the Speaker of the House of Representatives to visit Taiwan. So this is a very unusual thing.
What is the relationship between Biden and this matter? I still think it's hard to say. Can Biden stop her? Maybe, but this requires him to use a lot of political capital; he is obviously not going to do so, so he is ready to bear the collateral damage caused by Pelosi's trip to Sino-US relations.
White House insists that it has no right to prevent Pelosi from escaping from Taiwan. Biden's data picture
is obvious, which is very different from China, because there is indeed a certain degree of independence between the executive and legislative departments of the United States. This is part of its system. But on the other hand, if the situation is important enough, then (the U.S. government) has a way to put pressure on others to align with their official positions. But it is obvious that the pressure applied this time is very limited.Pentagon and the Ministry of Defense seem to object to the trip, believing that it would damage relations with China; but their position is not strong enough, so Pelosi decided to continue her itinerary.
Can China handle this in different ways? To some extent, by looking at "hindsight", I think the way mainland China views relations with Taiwan has changed in the past few years. Previously, despite some diplomatic conflicts over issues such as US arms sales to Taiwan, in general, this issue has been shelved for a long time. China now feels that as its strength and influence in East Asia and the world increases, it should be more proactive on the Taiwan issue rather than putting it on hold indefinitely.
So China should hope to apply some high-intensity pressure to promote the progress of the situation. In 1996, China exerted huge military pressure, and I think this year can be seen as comparable to the reaction at that time. But maybe this year is a little different, and the difference is that China is much closer to the United States in terms of economic and military. Therefore, China has issued a stronger warning to the U.S. and Taiwan authorities that China will not let it develop on this issue.
Observer.com: So how do you view China's reaction after Pelosi's visit?
Martin Jacques: I think the reason why China chose this reaction is because it had roughly accurately predicted what effect it might have.
Some of China's seemingly aggressive diplomatic behaviors in the past may not have achieved the expected results, and the fundamental reason is that China does not fully understand Western public opinion and how it works. This is not surprising, because the two sides are so different. But sometimes it is unquestionable to take action. A typical diplomatic example is when two senior Chinese diplomats verbally "connected" with their American counterparts at the 2021 Alaska talks. I think this works well because in fact they are not slandering the Americans, they just articulate China's position against the United States in a very powerful way, an eloquent way, and the way China sees things and the US's issues. The media present gave the microphone and exposure it would not have at the summit. Like the Alaska talks, I think China's reaction to Pelosi's runaway was also successful, but these things always require careful consideration.
2021 China-US high-level talks, Foreign Minister Wang Yi (left) and Yang Jiechi (right) Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office (photo source: AFP)
I think China's reaction to Pelosi's outbreak can be called the Western alarm bell . The West previously believed that Taiwan was a shelved issue, with occasional twists and turns, but in general, the status quo may remain forever. I think this alarm bell tells everyone: no, China's determination to reunify the motherland is unshakable .
The reactions of the West and East Asia, as far as I know, are serious and concerned, rather than boasting, and they all believe that China must be taken seriously and see how powerful China is now in military terms. We cannot think that the status quo of the Taiwan Strait is permanently sustainable.
China needs to consider the reactions of all parties more accurately. For example, what impact will this have on public opinion in Taiwan and local areas? It must be admitted that public opinion in Taiwan has deteriorated seriously in the past decade. When I was writing "When China Rules the World", I read many polls, and Taiwan had more positive views on mainland China at that time.
So, why does it worsen? This is an important question. Under what circumstances can it be improved? According to my guess, there may be some Taiwanese people who believe that we do not want to have military conflicts with mainland China, which will bring disaster to Taiwan and lose many people, so Taiwanese society should be more realistic. In other words, will this situation encourage some Taiwanese public opinion to make a more realistic reaction, acknowledging that some kind of transaction or reconciliation or change will occur between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, etc.? I don't think this is unimaginable. In the long run, China's reaction to Pelosi's out-of-stop outbreak may fuel this thinking.But this is just speculation, because at least among a few Taiwanese, it will certainly have the opposite effect, a more radical anti-China reaction. But I think this is an interesting question.
On August 3, Taiwanese people protested against Pelosi's visit to Taiwan (Photo source: FP)
The second thing I want to say is the regional reaction. I think China's reaction sent a signal to the ASEAN countries: Look, China is now the only superpower in this region. Of course, the United States is still very important, but the future trend is very obvious. For regional countries, this is not only an economic issue, but also a diplomatic and military issue. I think it's a very important moment in this sense.
I think the decision of the South Korean president not to meet Pelosi is intriguing and important, and he does this to not offend China. South Korea and Japan are obviously in different positions from ASEAN countries, after all, they form alliances with the United States, so in this case, they always tend toward the United States, and of course South Korea is not as close to the United States as Japan. Remember that the South Korean president comes from the right wing of South Korean politics, and with that in mind, the position he took at that moment is very important, may be a weather vane , i.e. this is not an opportunity or reason to offend or alienate China.
Generally speaking, I am a bit optimistic. But China needs to better understand American public opinion. I don’t think China predicted the emergence of Trump and the significance of Trump in advance. Now we can see that the transformation brought by Trump is not just Trump himself, but a new consensus reached by the two parties in the United States, that is, China is a threat, no longer an opportunity.
Of course, even if China made correct predictions before, can it do something about it? This is another question, that is, to what extent can China influence American public opinion? I was deeply impressed by the new Chinese ambassador to the United States. I think he set the right tone to recognize the size and scope of the Sino-US relations issue and seek solutions.
Martin Jacques: Ambassador Qin Gang recognizes the size and scope of the Sino-US relations issue and seeks solutions
Observer Network: You have a good summary of the strategic situation surrounding Pelosi's exodus, as well as the broader Sino-US relations. Looking a little further, it is reported that some British MPs, Lithuanian MPs , German politicians and others plan to visit Taiwan. Recently, U.S. Senator Ma Ji led a delegation of two parties to Congress to visit Taiwan. What do you think are their motivations?
Martin Jacques: I think the UK has become blindly pro-American in its relationship with China. There is a group of MPs from multiple parties who will rise to the stage under the leadership of a man named Tom Tugendhat. He is very anti-China. Their reasons are "identify with Taiwan's democracy", "democracy needs to be defended", etc.
I haven't paid attention to what's going on in other European countries, and hope they won't participate, as China's relationship with its European partners has deteriorated severely since Biden took office. The trough of the relationship between the United States and Europe is Trump (translation: during his administration), but now there is a considerable change, which revolves around the issue of "liberal democracy", and believes that China stands on the opposite side of "democracy".
Such languages have had a considerable impact on some European views. Therefore, how can China find a way to stop the spread of this trend? I think this is the first question. Currently on issues like Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and perhaps Taiwan, this trend is accumulating Europe's motivation, "sense of identity" and "sense of mission". If it cannot be stopped and reversed, then how to at least slow its development is an important question.
I looked at the situation in the UK, and its attitude towards China became very bad. During the exciting days from 2013 to 2015, and maybe even until 2016, China-UK relations experienced a brief so-called golden age, and now there are so many slandering China in the public opinion field. At present, people cannot really conduct rational discussions on issues related to China because there are too many prejudices.The Conservative Party’s right has been dominating the party in ideological and politically since the 2016 Brexit referendum, continuing to push this position. This process will worsen even further if Liz Truss becomes the new prime minister.
Martin Jacques: If Trass comes to power, it will deepen Britain's prejudice against China
You may have heard that British Parliament decided to ban Chinese ambassador from entering the parliament building Westminster . It is ridiculous to do this for an ambassador of a very important country like China, but that is the current atmosphere in Britain.
I have expanded your problem to what China can do to stop or slow down the deterioration of relations, or create dialogue. The problem is that the dialogue that once existed in the past no longer exists. This is also reflected in almost all media, including " Guardian " that reported on China badly for a period of time, but fortunately it has improved now because two authors have some understanding of China, and their articles on China are rigorous, while most other articles about China are not serious.
Observer.com: You have discussed in-depth the differences between Chinese and Western systems. In China's political system, the central government has the final decision-making power, but this is not the case in many Western countries. For example, the White House repeatedly emphasized that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was purely a personal act, and that the US parliament was independent of the government, and Biden had no right to interfere with it. Although as you said before, this may be because Biden is not ready to use his political capital to stop her from escaping. If someone with some influence in some countries makes inappropriate remarks or acts in public against China, but claims that it does not represent the government, what advice do you have to deal with? They can be as big as the Speaker of the United States to as small as individuals.
Martin Jacques: This is an interesting question. One of the most prominent features of changes in Western political debate is the complete reduction of China's political system and political institutions into narratives about Chinese Communist Party . Now (Western) no matter what people are talking about, a Chinese institution or enterprise always concludes that it is controlled by the Communist Party of China. Therefore, the entire governance system of China has been simplified to the Communist Party of China , which is presented in a roughly the same way as the smear of during the Cold War : it is evil, it is dangerous, it manipulates everything. If someone in China comes forward and speaks out, they may be treated the same way, i.e. he or she is a member of the Communist Party of China, a member of the leadership or a related person, so you are guilty of being a party member, a guilty of being a connection, and so on.
Therefore, Western political debate about China has now become a Cold War mentality. Then how do you have a serious conversation? When I hear people like Tugenhart (the aforementioned British anti-China MP) speak, I know he doesn't understand China at all. In their history, China has been simplified to a period since 1949, and other than that, China has no other existence, and there is no cultural tradition like Confucianism to discuss.
Martin Jacques: The West cannot see the traditional culture of China
In my opinion, cultural traditions and history are crucial to understanding the essence of China as a civilized country rather than just a nation-state, but these things are completely lost in the eyes of the West, and they are not interested in it. It’s a pity that people’s curiosity about China had disappeared before 2016.
Western discourse abbreviates China's political system to the Communist Party of China, and then basically equates the Communist Party of China with the Soviet Communist Party in the Cold War. In general, this is the current situation of Western political opinion, which is very destructive to China's reputation in the West, but it is also very harmful to Western public opinion, because it is so rough, so hopelessly misinterpreted facts, and so destructive. So it is a very profound question, because this argument has political motivation that cannot be underestimated and is destroying the way the West and China view each other.
Now, how do China respond? It's very difficult.I have a general view on the relationship between countries and the relationship between all opponents in any political scenario, whether domestic or international, whether it is domestic or international, that is, everyone should maintain communication, maintain discussion, respect differences, but do not take the "break-up" route, because communication is needed.
Ultimately, no matter how bad the status quo, the situation will not continue as it will forever. When the situation improves, people sometimes need the “help” of others to put down their previous positions. Therefore, I think the wisest thing for China is to focus on the long term, and China is very good at this. I think China should avoid unnecessary sarcastic actions as much as possible to make people more hostile to China.
But I don't want to propose a "one size fits all" rule, because sometimes a fierce response is appropriate. It’s just that China should always find ways to debate and discuss with a long-term perspective, even with those who cross the red line. You need to keep the communication channels open, find ways to debate, and understand the thinking of these people. If they are very anti-China, where is the problem? Why is this happening? Because they may have always held this position, but the degree is not as serious as it is now. So in fact, this is also a question of listening to other countries' societies. You have to listen to society and understand society, otherwise you will get it wrong.
To some extent, this is what happened before 2016. China did not listen fully, misread American society, and regarded it as the United States when it came into contact with the top Americans. In fact, the political focus of the United States was moving in a completely different direction at the time, which is why Trump appeared, and this is the source of the (China-US) status quo. Only by truly understanding a society can we successfully deal with it and be able to think about it strategically and subtly.
Martin Jacques: China misreads American society and fails to predict Trump’s coming to power
By the way, the West also has the same problem with China, and the degree is even worse, because except for a very small number of people, others do not understand China, and only have stereotype in their minds. Why is this happening? There are two reasons. One is because they are too different from China. The other is that the relationship between the two societies is very bad, so it is often a dialogue between deaf people.
So if we can get everyone in good hearing aids, I think it would be great. I'm sure the Chinese are angry, and I'm angry when I hear Westerners scolding China and disdaining it. But we have to find a way to discuss with them. We can't just attack them, after all, they have influence and represent the views of a group of people. We need to try to change the view of this group. In order to change the view of this group, you must change the ideas of some of its representative characters.
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