The gold and silver trend in 2022 has been confirmed after three stages. It was on a rise before March and was on a decline from March to July. After entering July, gold and silver began to build a weak medium-term bottom. How long is this medium-term bottom horizontal? It cannot be carried out in advance through judgment. Today, a deduction of gold and silver in 2023 will be conducted.
Is gold considered strong this year? It also needs to be analyzed from the perspectives of relative returns and absolute returns . Gold's resistance to decline in 2022, whether it is compared with US stock , or even US bonds, it has relative returns. In 2022, the actual interest rate curve of the US 10-year bond has risen by 270 basis points. According to historical data, every 100 basis points of the actual interest rate of US bond rises, corresponding to the pressure of gold 10% higher. In terms of the comparison between the increase in the actual interest rate of US bonds and the decline in gold, gold has performed remarkable this year.
Since the decline in gold and silver in March 2022, there are two data that are worth paying attention to. One is that the total amount of US debt is still increasing rapidly, and the other is that gold and silver inventory data continues to decline. The valuation of gold and silver for both is to increase the increase. Entering 2023, the continued rise in total US debt is a certain event, and the continued decline in gold and silver inventories is also a certain event.
Why is it said that the rise in total US debt is a certain event, and the downward trend in gold and silver inventories is a certain event. U.S. debt digestion requires economic conditions for endorsement of . The US economy in 2023 plus Fed continues to raise interest rates and interest expenses increase. Under this background, U.S. debt does not increase in 2023. The decline in gold and silver inventories is due to insufficient new investment, resulting in limited supply increase, while demand, especially silver, is in a process of continuous growth.
What will happen in 2023? The US economy is slightly recession, the total amount of US debt continues to rise, the US bond yield peaks and falls, the US real interest rate peaks and falls, the US dollar index peaks and falls, and gold and silver inventories continue to be destocked in 2022. The impact of the above conditions on gold and silver in 2023 is that the total amount of US debt rises and gold and silver continues to destock and rises the upper limit of gold and silver valuation, while the US economy is slightly recession, the US bond yield, real interest rate, and the US dollar will start the upward pusher of gold and silver, pushing gold and silver toward its valuation.
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summary: Fast and slow down, pressure on gold and silver in 2022 (upper U.S. real interest rates, rising and rising US Treasury yields, etc.) will all become supportive forces in 2023, and support forces for gold and silver in 2022 (such as inventory, geopolitical, and increase in total U.S. debt) will continue to maintain their supportive role in gold and silver in 2023.
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