"Military Martial Plane" Author: Da Yiwan
At present, the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict has broken out for 234 days.
Yesterday, the Ukrainian army used two mechanized battalions to launch a tentative attack in the direction of Duchani, but under the blockade of the 205th brigade of the 58th mercenary of the Russian military region, the two battalions suffered serious losses. It is said that they were not even touched by the main defense line of the Russian army, and they were knocked back to the starting point of the attack;
The tentative attack carried out along the Relebezi River was also subject to the same fate. Many Ukrainian army's actions to test the Russian main defense line were all caused by the Russian army. Resist, since the Russian army has built a large number of fortifications west of Swatovo, Lisichangsk and Upper Kamianka, the difficulty of the Ukrainian light infantry forces in the implementation of breakthroughs has been greatly increased
Finally, on the front line of Atmsk, the "Wagner" mercenary group confirmed that it had entered the city constellation from the east, and the battle in the south is still in progress. Ukrainian netizens are quarreling in the Telegram group about whether Atmsk withdraws or not, and Ukrainian President Zelensky admitted for the first time, saying that the situation in the direction of Atmsk is "very difficult".
In short, Ivan believes that the next three weeks are very important to the Ukrainian army, especially as the US midterm election is approaching, the Democratic government, which has spent tens of billions of dollars in Ukraine in half a year, urgently needs the Ukrainian government to come up with some tangible and visible results to appease American voters; at the same time, the autumn rainy season in Ukraine has arrived, and before the winter in December, the battle will become more difficult. At present, the Ukrainian army has encountered the problem of getting stuck in cars in many places. The big and incompetent anti-ambuster vehicles designed for the desert terrain of Middle East have been exacerbated by this.
The Ukrainian army carried out a "counterattack" from August to October, and there were no large cities captured, only a few small and medium-sized towns, and there was no heating and electricity supply. It was far from enough to be used as a wintering camp. The Ukrainian army must find ways to seize large cities as wintering bases for troops. These factors determine that the Ukrainian army will have a counterattack in the next few weeks.
Urgent notice from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
In addition to the combat operations of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, a message released by the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine yesterday caused widespread discussion on the domestic Internet. According to the "Consular Express" news of the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine, recently, due to the severe domestic security situation in Ukraine, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine have called on Chinese citizens in Ukraine to strengthen security prevention and evacuate and transfer. The Embassy in Ukraine will assist and organize the evacuation of Chinese citizens. If Chinese citizens intend to evacuate themselves, please report to the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine for filing.
There are many discussions online about the news released by the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine:
Some people believe that the news released by the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine "called for Chinese citizens to evacuate" is a decision made by Russia in recent times to start a large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. After all, after the Russian army attacks Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Ukraine's winter may be very sad, which may be very difficult for Chinese citizens in Ukraine. It is better to leave as soon as possible;
Others believe that Ukraine's energy infrastructure is currently not a big problem. After all, yesterday Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmigal had said that the supply of civilian energy in the entire Ukraine has recovered. Therefore, the Chinese Embassy has issued this message more or less to prevent everyone from evacuating just in case. Some people compared the evacuation information with the evacuation information at the beginning of the year, believing that it is no big deal;
The last part of the people believed that this means that a new round of large-scale combat offensive by the Russian army may be launched.After all, the Russian Western Military Region troops have begun to carry out military assembly to Belarus . The Russian army directly extracts Belarus' stock weapons, and the Belarusian army launches military mobilization. This is no secret. The legendary "Belarusian balcony" is likely to be smashed from Ukraine's head again. This wave of smashing will not tell what the consequences will be. If Kiev is besieged again, it will be embarrassing. Therefore, it is better to organize Chinese citizens in Ukraine to evacuate as soon as possible.
The overall prediction of Ukraine is not optimistic
So, why did the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine suddenly issue such a notice calling on Chinese citizens in Ukraine to evacuate Ukraine? Is it a rainy day or is it about to come? Da Ivan specifically checked the causes and consequences. We believe that although the embassy’s notice cannot imply that “the big one is coming,” it is obvious that the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine, including the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has a general prediction of the situation in Ukraine in the future.
Why do you say so? Since the Ukrainian attack on Crimea Bridge on October 8, and on October 10, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine had already responded, and this reaction was obviously a gradual increase in the process of gradually increasing the scale. On the day the Russian army launched the missile attack on October 10, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine had sent three messages in a row, requiring that they should not come to Ukraine and return to Ukraine unless necessary, and that Chinese citizens in Ukraine should do emergency avoidance. Then he asked not to stay in Ukraine in non-emergency situations and to leave the country in a timely manner under safety. He also asked Chinese citizens in Ukraine to fill out their contact cards, make a record, etc.
On October 12, the Embassy in Ukraine released another news, again emphasizing that Chinese citizens in Ukraine should strengthen emergency risk avoidance and should not be lazy in their attitude towards air defense alarms. At the same time, it is important to require all Chinese citizens in Ukraine to register their contact cards immediately. Three registration channels have been opened on WeChat, namely Kiev, Lviv and Odessa . This is already a bit heavy. Simply put, it is equivalent to playing the secret card and preparing for the evacuation of Ukraine. With the previous two notices as the basis, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine issued a message on October 15 calling on all Chinese citizens in Ukraine to evacuate Ukraine, which in a sense has laid the final say for the previous few times. The situation is progressing layer by layer, from reminders and prevention, to registration information, and then to organizational evacuation, which is getting worse and worse. From this we can see that our judgment on the domestic situation in Ukraine is not optimistic.
Possible reasons for the "evacuation notice"
As for whether this "not optimistic" is whether the Russian army is going to launch the next round of large-scale campaign attack, Ivan believes that it is not necessarily true. This kind of factors actually have many factors:
First of all, it is the problem of Ukraine's wintering . Although Shmigal announced that Ukraine's civilian energy supply has recovered, he also added a sentence, saying that Ukraine's power grid load is already very serious. This means that the recovery of Ukrainian civil electricity is restored through what we said before, " load-shelter ", which means that part of industrial and commercial electricity is removed and priority is given to ensuring the power supply of residents. After all, Ukrainian industry is basically gone, but if there is a lack of civil electricity, social chaos will break out. This is also a proof that the Ukrainian power grid has been in a relatively vulnerable state under the repeated attacks of the Russian army. If the Russian army's attack continues, especially the important 330kv dry network and 750kv ultra-high voltage long-range transmission substation , it will become increasingly difficult for Ukraine to achieve power grid balance, and some residents' power usage may be interrupted.
Once interrupted, the winter in Ukraine will be very difficult, and Chinese people, especially southern Chinese, may not be able to bear it.In addition, the lack of electricity will also lead to problems in Ukraine's logistics. Simply put, there are problems in the supply of grain, vegetables, meat, tap water, daily necessities, and fuel, which will make the lives of Chinese in Ukraine even more difficult. Therefore, before the cold winter in Ukraine arrives, it is better to organize Chinese people in Ukraine to evacuate Ukraine in time.
followed by Ukraine’s domestic problem . According to the situation learned by many parties of Ivan, it was probably from the second phase of the Russian military’s military operation. Since the Ukrainian army was at a disadvantage and suffered heavy casualties, the extreme nationalist sentiment among the Ukrainian people has expanded again. At present, the Ukrainian army used the iron cross sign of the Nazi German army as identification symbols on the front line, and even the statue of Bandera was photographed in Zaluzhni's office. Of course, these details worthy of semiotics and research have been ignored by Western media. In fact, some details come from the folk. It is probably from April and May this year that Ukrainian people, especially in the western region, have begun to appear extreme xenophobic thoughts. Some companies specifically noted that they would not recruit Russians, Belarusians and and Asians when recruiting workers. Some stores also announced that Asians are unpopular customers. In addition, the current behavior of Ukraine's highest Lada, it is not ruled out that some neo-Nazi organizations will experience abnormal movements in Ukraine. Therefore, even for the safety of Chinese citizens in Ukraine and for the sake of stability, it is indeed necessary to withdraw these people first.
Finally, the Russian army does have the possibility of launching a second large-scale campaign attack , but Ivan believes that it is still early at this time:
On the one hand, based on the time limit for the Russian troops mobilization last year, the Russian army's large troops stationed in Belarus started in early 2022 and assembled in February 2022, and conducted combat readiness inspections and pre-war pre-war rehearsal military exercises from February 10 to 20. The entire assemblage process was more than one month. At present, the Russian army has just begun to reassemble troops, and the mobilization of Belarus has just begun, which means that the Russian army will not have any abnormal movements before the arrival of winter;
On the other hand, it is no secret that the Russian army is currently purchasing various combat materials in large quantities in the international market. Judging from the disclosed delivery date, the concentrated delivery date of the winter combat uniforms, , individual soldiers, protective equipment and night vision equipment purchased by the Russian army is relatively close to the date of training of the mobilized troops, and is concentrated between November and December, which also determines that the Russian army should not make any big moves before December. At present, the 16,000 reserve soldiers that the Russian army urgently replenished on the front line should be contract soldiers that have not been retired for a long time, and are used to stabilize the front line. As for the more than 200,000 troops behind, plus the new contract soldiers, they are still in the recovery training stage and should not be in place yet.
But no matter what, in the current situation, Ivan believes that it is a storm that is about to come and the wind is filling the building, and the atmosphere of the war is getting closer and closer.
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