I always think that after Putin issued the action order to military occupation of Crimea in February 2014, he must be in a very bad mood. Because he knew that this means that the Kremlin admitted that the game with the United States in Kiev failed. Moreover, this command is to open the Pandora's box - the name of the demon released is "Russia-Ukraine War".
Russia-Ukraine relations in Yeltsin era
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kuchima, who served as the general manager of the Southern Machinery Manufacturing Plant during the Soviet era, represented Dnepropetrovsk Oblast and successfully ran for the People's Congress, and served as a member of the National Security Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament. After Ukrainian first Prime Minister Fujin resigned in 1992, Kuchima was appointed as Prime Minister of the Government by then Ukrainian President Krafchuk. In July 1994, under the joint election of several parties, Kuchima was elected President of Ukraine, thus becoming the third president in Ukrainian history .
One of the most difficult problems Kuchi faces after he comes to power is how to reach a consensus with Russia on "the division of former alliance property and debt, strategic nuclear weapons, the ownership of the Black Sea Fleet and Crimea."
Kuchima
First of all, over the years, Ukraine owes Russia billions of energy funds, and 90% of Ukraine's energy depend on Russia. Therefore, Russia used this as a bargaining chip to try to oppress Ukraine to compromise on issues such as the division of the Black Sea Fleet, the handling of nuclear weapons , and the ownership of the Crimea region.
Secondly, Ukraine is not uncensored. More than 80% of the energy raw material transactions between Russia and Europe must be transported through Ukraine. Then the Russians are very clear that they cannot provide gas to Europe normally after the arrears of fees to Ukraine are dying. Then, everyone has something to talk about.
In early 1994, Russia proposed a plan to "build energy infrastructure in Ukraine, such as natural gas storage facilities and pipelines, on the condition of offsetting Ukraine's energy debt." To this end, Russia has also increased diplomatic and economic pressure on Ukraine, demanding to repay debts on time, impose new tariffs on Ukraine's goods, and also disconnected Ukraine-Russian power grid.
However, Ukraine is also very clear that the ultimate goal of the plan proposed by Moscow is to fully control the energy export pipeline to Europe within Ukraine, so the Krafchuk government withstood the pressure from Moscow. Moreover, in order to maintain its influence on Kiev, Russia did not declare to him that it would raise the price of natural gas to Ukraine, and still supply energy to Ukraine at a price lower than the international market.
After Kuchi came to power, in order to concentrate on solving domestic problems in Ukraine as soon as possible, he had the intention to actively reach an agreement with Russia as soon as possible, so his policy towards Russia changed from boycott to pragmatic. In the end, the two sides reached a division agreement before Yeltsin visited Ukraine in 1997. Russia won more than 80% of the Black Sea Fleet's surface ships and submarine , and obtained 20 years of lease rights for a series of important naval facilities in Crimea (including Sevastopol Deepwater Port), and the rent offsets the part of the natural gas debt owed by Ukraine.
In return, Moscow waived $500 million in Kiev energy debt. At the same time, other difficult problems in the relationship between the two sides have also been resolved or alleviated: under pressure from the United States and Russia, Ukraine transported the nuclear warhead and launch device in its territory to Russia for destruction; Ukraine gave Crimea administrative autonomy, and Russia showed restraint and indifference to the Crimean Parliament's request for help, which was forced to cancel the decision of referendum .
In this context, the two sides signed the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and Ukraine, establishing a new legal foundation framework for bilateral relations.
Objectively speaking, during the Yeltsin era, the main problem faced by the leaders of Russia and Ukraine was to solve a series of domestic problems brought about by the collapse of the Soviet Union, such as the common economic crisis brought to the two countries by "shock therapy" , such as the rebalancing of the two domestic political forces, especially the local separation problem faced by Russia, such as the Chechnya issue. Therefore, both countries are quite restrained and relatively rational when handling disputes.
Putin's first term (2000-2008)
Looking back, we have to admit that Putin is a great gift from God to the Russian people. He not only solved the local separation movement led by Chechnya with tough measures, but also quickly solved the problem of oligarchs in the domestic market with decisive and flexible skills.
. In contrast, Ukraine still cannot escape the fate of oligarchy even today (see my article "
Yushenko
. In my personal opinion, Kuchima is relatively pragmatic. He is well aware of the principle that "Russia is a neighbor that cannot be moved away", so he does not want to stimulate Russia. But he is also very clear that excessive approaching with either Russia and the United States will not only not bring prosperity to Ukraine, but will also make Ukraine a victim of the game of great powers. Therefore, on the one hand, Kuchima, on the one hand, falsely and condemnly against Putin's Eurasian integration project, and on the other hand, he is restrained enough to join EU and return to Europe to determine it as Ukraine's core foreign strategic goal.
does not Fortunately, none of Russia, the United States and Europe believe that Ukraine can be "neutral". They all believe that either the east wind overwhelms the west wind or the west wind overwhelms the east wind. Yushenko's resignation made the United States and Europe believe that if Ukraine does not take action, it will be completely put into Putin's bag.
In the 2004 Ukrainian general election, the United States and Europe threatened the Kuchima authorities to promote the legal progress of the election by canceling aid and retrieving bilateral relations. Opposition leader Yushenko. Russia supports Prime Minister Yanukovych from the east by rescheduling or exempting debts and reducing energy prices. Putin even visited Kiev before both rounds of votes.
After the results of Yanukovych's victory were announced, the United States and Europe did not recognize Yanukovych's election and supported the opposition led by Yushenko and Tymoshenko to launch an " Orange Revolution " was finally successfully re-elected and seized power.
Yanukovych
It can be imagined that Yushenko, who was manipulating the United States and Europe, immediately adopted a "one-sided" diplomatic strategy, clearly stated that he wanted to establish closer relations with NATO and the EU and achieve unlimited comprehensive integration. This made the relatively stable Russian-Ukrainian relations during the Kuchima period almost deteriorated overnight.
The first thing to do was the energy issue, since Ukraine is now The government has made it clear that has "relieved Russia and turned the West", so there is no need for the "discount" that Russia gave Kuchima back then. Therefore, at the end of 2005, Russia made a request to increase the price of natural gas for Ukraine from US$50 per thousand cubic meters to US$230. After the negotiations between the two sides failed, the Russian Natural Natural Gas Industry Corporation immediately cut off the supply of natural gas to Ukraine on New Year's Day 2006, forming a "defense storm" of Russia and Ukraine that has attracted worldwide attention.
Then, Putin was in Munich in February 2007. The security policy meeting held strongly criticized the United States for its uncontrollable abuse of force in the world and its attempt to establish a unipolar world, especially the eastern expansion of NATO seriously threatened Russia's national security. This is considered a major sign of the turning point in Russia's relations with the West in international diplomatic relations.
Because during its first term from 2000 to 2004, Putin actually had a clear expectation for comprehensively strengthening relations with Europe and the United States, and even discussed the feasibility of Russia's joining NATO and the European Union. From this perspective, the deepening of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and has evolved into a crisis can actually be understood as a strategic protection behavior that Russia clearly realizes that the "hostility" between the United States and Europe towards Russia is an unchangeable fact.
Timoshenko
Putin's speech, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Timoshenko was invited to visit the United States and was received by Vice President Cheney and Secretary of State Reiss . After she returned to China, she immediately joined forces. "Our Ukraine" prompted Yushenko to dissolve the parliament, causing a new political crisis. In the end, Tymoshenko was elected Prime Minister with only more than half of the vote. In response, the then US ambassador to Ukraine said that this was the "first step in the establishment of a reformist government and a very important step."
It is particularly worth mentioning that during the Russian-Germany War in August 2008, Ukraine clearly stood on the side of Georgia, the United States, NATO and the European Union, and also provided weapons support to Greece. This reflects the extremely immature and even sentimentality of the Ukrainian leadership in dealing with Russia-Ukrainian relations.
Medvedev period (2009-2012)
On January 1, 2009, Russia once again interrupted gas supply to Ukraine and Europe, on the grounds that Ukraine could not fully guarantee the natural gas export to Europe. In the end, Tymoshenko and Putin signed a long-term gas purchase contract from 2009 to 2019, and Ukraine could only accept price increases. Russia has greatly hit the pro-Western foreign policy line of the Yushenko government by cutting its energy supply to Ukraine and significantly raising prices, which has exacerbated the cracks within the Ukrainian Orange Alliance (see "
Medvedev"
In July 2009, US Vice President Biden visited Kiev and clearly expressed support for Ukraine's accession to NATO. Correspondingly, on August 11 of the same year, Russian President Medvedev published an "open letter" in a video blog, fiercely criticizing Yushenko's policies and announced the postponement of the new ambassador to Ukraine. The clear signal sent by Moscow is that Ukraine's political elites and people must understand that if Yushenko continues to take power, the relationship between the two countries will not be in line with each other. " Treaty on Friendly Partnership between Ukraine and Russia ".
In February 2010, the "pro-Russia" Yanukovych was successfully elected, which marked the once again entering a stable period of Russia-Ukraine relations. Yanukovych also fulfilled his commitment before election and immediately adjusted his policy to Russia. Russia-Ukraine reached an important agreement on natural gas prices and Black Sea Fleet stations. The lease term for military facilities in Crimea was extended to 2042, and in exchange, Ukraine received a multi-year discount of 30% of Russian natural gas.
At the same time, Ukraine passed the "Principles Law on Domestic and Foreign Policy", which established Ukraine's "No-aligned status", prohibiting seeking to join NATO in return for Russia's goodwill.
In this way, Russia-Ukraine relations began to enter a new era of stable and healthy development - but this was destined to be short-lived. Looking back, when the Yanukovych government used "extending the Crimean lease term for Russia's energy discount", it caused a huge wave of protests at home, which actually reflected the fact that "the reason why Yanukovych was successful in the election was largely due to the pro-Western faction, not how powerful the pro-Russian forces are." Ukraine's media resources are mainly in the hands of anti-Russian forces. Under their long-term anti-Russian propaganda and Russia's long-term threat of "death" by Russia, most of the Russians in Ukraine are in Ukraine. The image in the people's hearts is extremely negative.
. During this period, the focus of the US-Russia struggle was Syria , and the worst thing the United States is Afghanistan. Therefore, both sides deliberately chose to "ignor" Ukraine to a certain extent. But if the US and Russia no longer "ignored", Ukraine will inevitably be full of war.
Moreover, some of Russia's policies during this period also made most observers in the West, including Ukraine, increasingly worried that it would "annex" Ukraine.
For example, under the guise of helping Yanukovych consolidate its rule, Russia directly intervened in the Ukrainian elite riot police force. "Berkut" training and transformation; Yanukovych requires that private bodyguards and defense ministers, security forces heads and naval commanders be replaced with pro-Russian people. For example, Moscow proposed to hope that Kiev would join the customs alliance (Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan), merge the nuclear energy companies of the two countries, and establish joint venture aircraft manufacturing companies.
Putin is in power again (2013-to-present)
I personally believe that the United States' methods are obviously better than Russia in dealing with the issue of Ukraine. Russia's first impression is "control", and the United States has always believed that the "interests of Ukraine" are righteous and righteous.
The United States emphasizes that Ukraine has the right to choose its own allies and support its integration with the EU, and emphasizes that NATO is still open to Kiev.In the face of Russia's increasingly aggressive strategy, Yanukovych had to say that although Ukraine insisted on the non-alignment policy, it was still willing to work closely with NATO in military reform, counter-terrorism and international peacekeeping. NATO called on Kiev to clarify its position on the deployment of anti-missile system in Europe and prepare to invite it to cooperate. What is more decisive is that the negotiations with Ukraine's "Contact Countries" and "Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Zone " launched by the EU in 2008 are also accelerating. Objectively speaking, economic cooperation with the EU is the basic right of Ukraine as a sovereign and independent country. However, the Ukraine-European Free Trade Agreement and the Agreement on Linked Countries not only cover common economic interests, but also values and institutional cooperation, which cannot prevent Russia from doubting the EU's true intentions.
And Russia chose to deal with it to "disrupt" him. Therefore, on the one hand, Russia clearly expressed its opposition to Ukraine's participation in the European Customs Union, while strengthening customs supervision, warning of the cancellation of loans and bilateral free trade agreements, and setting up a trade protection wall; on the other hand, it also offered generous conditions such as reducing gas supply prices, abolishing oil tariffs to Ukraine and purchasing Ukrainian government bonds.
In the end, the Yanukovych government announced the suspension of the signing of a contact country agreement with the EU, which triggered the square revolution on January 19, 2014. Under the agitation of the United States and Europe, the demonstrations promoted by the pro-Western opposition quickly turned into riots and took the opportunity to achieve regime change.
At this time, Putin, who obviously lost his patience, chose the countermeasures to quickly send troops to occupy Crimea. The direct consequence of this is that Moscow betrayed all pro-Russian forces in Ukraine on a factual level - all pro-Russian people, including Yanukovych, instantly became "Ukrainian traitors". Then, as long as Russia does not return Crimea, it is impossible for Russia and Ukraine to return to normal track. Putin, on the other hand, "don't do it," the Russian "little green man" that appeared in Crimea began to appear blatantly in Wudong.
The final result is that Ukraine, which is unable to fight against Russia, can only become a pawn that consumes Russia, either actively or passively or forced to become a pawn that confronts the United States and Europe.
Postscript summary
Looking at the development history of Russia-Ukrainian relations after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is actually difficult to determine which one is right and who is wrong. In the face of NATO's military threat, Russia's some requirements for Ukraine based on its view of its strategic environment and strategic depth are actually understandable.
However, when Russia implements its strategy towards Ukraine, it gives outsiders a clear feeling of being rough and brings the great power " chauvinism ". Especially in the context of the increasing radical voices of "restore the former Soviet Union's territory" in Russia, not only Ukraine, but even countries such as Kazakhstan, , Belarus, and , Belarus, , have the feeling of being frightened.
Therefore, the intensification of Russia-Ukraine relations and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine war are not so much a strategic victory for the United States, but rather a strategic failure for Russia.
From beginning to end, a simple truth that the Russian leaders did not understand is: a forced melon is not sweet. A country's greatest attraction and influence to the outside world is actually the happiness index of the people. Whether the elites of Ukraine or civilians, they can clearly see the living conditions of the people of Russia and other European countries. If they are allowed to choose for themselves, they are certainly willing to become the same as the EU.
Let the people live a more democratic, freer, happier and happier life. This is the ruling philosophy and foundation that a country ruler should have. What is difficult for Ukraine's pro-Russian faction to prove to the public is that if Russia and Europe choose one, choosing Russia can achieve the goal of "more democratic, more free, happier and happier".
What's more, after 2014, Ukraine has no "pro-Russian factions", only "pro-American factions" and "Ukrainian traitors".
So, when did the Russian-Ukraine war actually begin?
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