On October 15, former Russian Foreign Minister Kozilev talked about the current Russia-Ukrainian issue in an interview with a reporter from the US " News Weekly" and said that Russian President Putin made three major mistakes on the Ukrainian issue.
first, making the mistake of underestimating the enemy and advancing rashly. The Ukrainian problem, which I thought could be solved in two or three days, but unexpectedly, I fought until today.
Second, underestimating the determination of the United States and other Western countries to aid Ukraine, and mistakenly thought that the United States and other Western countries could still adopt the appeasement policy to surrender to Russia. Unexpectedly, the United States and other Western countries are now directly "super bulls" with Russia.
Third, due to the extended war and insufficient troops, Putin had to order a national local mobilization. In fact, this has brought Russia directly into the war, which made the Russian people very dissatisfied.
Kozilev believes that after Putin made three major mistakes, there is only one move left, which is to wield the nuclear stick and threaten to use nuclear weapon , attempting to force the West to compromise on the Ukraine issue by creating nuclear terror.
Kozilev talked about Putin's three major mistakes in an interview with a reporter from the US Newsweek on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, and his views are also worthy of detailed interpretation and analysis.
First of all, it is necessary to understand Kozilev's resume. Kozilev can be said to be a famous politician in Russia. He served as the foreign minister of Russian President Yeltsin from 1990 to 1996. He still enjoys a reputation in the Russian diplomatic circle. Today, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was actually Kozilev's subordinate at that time. From 1990 to 1996, Yeltsin's foreign policy was to turn to the West in a comprehensive way, and Kozilev was the main executor of this pro-Western policy line. Therefore, during his tenure as Foreign Minister, Kozilev made great contributions in promoting the easing of relations between Russia and the West and working to make Russia join the European family.
In the end, Yeltsin felt deeply insulted by Europe and Russia's treason, and at the same time, it also made the Russian people feel extremely resentful to the West due to the failure of "shock therapy". This resentment was vented on Kozilev, so that by 1996, when Yeltsin wanted to seek a second term of office, he had to give up the pro-Western Kozilev for all political considerations. In any case, Kozilev was the first foreign minister after Russia's independence and still had a certain influence in Russian politics. Therefore, in an interview with a reporter from the US Newsweek on October 15, Kozilev's severe criticism of Putin was not surprising at all, after all, Kozilev himself is a pro-Western person. When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict first broke out, Kozilev called on Russian diplomats to conduct a collective strike to avoid the conflict and forced Putin to step down.
Secondly, after understanding Kozilev's pro-Western position and the pro-Western foreign policy he implemented, he can have a deeper understanding of Kozilev's criticism of Putin, and Kozilev pointed out that Putin made three major mistakes quite reasonable.
First, Kozilev believes that Putin made a mistake of underestimating the enemy and advancing, which is indeed very correct. Whether from Putin's post-examination or the performance of the Russian army on the Ukrainian frontline, Russia has indeed made the mistake of underestimating the enemy and advancing. The most impressive thing is that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian army launched a full-scale attack, and collectively advanced from south to north. What is even more aggressive is that at that time, Russia wanted to use the air force to directly attack Kiev to achieve the goal of "Hypering in the center of ", but unexpectedly, it eventually led to the retreat of Kiev. Judging from the long firefighting situation from Kharkov to Odessa , the Russian army's performance was so strait-straight, which really confirmed Kozilev's criticism that Russian top leaders, including Putin, were not fully prepared for the persistence of the conflict.Although the Russian top leaders expected various difficulties, they probably did not expect that the small conflict that could be easily captured in two or three days evolved into a long war that lasted for nearly 300 days without hope, and Kozilev's view on this aspect is indeed more correct.
Second, Kozilev said that another mistake Putin made was underestimating the determination of the United States and other Western countries to fight against Russia. In fact, Russia's special military action method during this Russian-Ukrainian conflict is basically a copy of the model of the Crimea incident in 2014. However, in 2014, the United States and other Western countries adopted appeasement policies against Russia. In fact, this made Russian senior officials, including Putin, think that the United States and other Western countries will definitely take a step back on the Ukraine issue. What was unexpected was that the times have changed and the times have changed. Merkel stepped down as prime minister, Obama went home to retire, and the US president he has now replaced is hawkish Biden . He is extremely hostile to Russia. Without Merkel's European politics, no leader can be on the table. This forced the whole of Europe to follow the US baton. When the United States and other Western countries took sanctions other than war against Russia, Putin himself admitted that he did not expect the United States and other Western countries to be so determined. It has to be said that Kozilev still has certain vision.
Third, Kozilev said that Putin's mistake was also to order local military mobilization across the country. This practice actually turned the Russians from the fire watchers on the other side of the river into participants in war conflicts, and also caused domestic opposition and aroused strong dissatisfaction among the people in China. This is indeed reasonable. Before Putin ordered a local military mobilization, many people in Russia believed that the problems that occurred in Ukraine were too far apart from themselves, and that this was only the Russian army, and ordinary people could hang up. It's different now, because the frontline forces are tight, Russia recruits reserve personnel who are suitable for age and have military experience through military mobilization. These civilians were sent to the army and became soldiers again, which shocked Russian society very much. Therefore, Kozilev pointed out that Putin made a mistake and his view was indeed quite reasonable.
Finally, Kozilev said that Russia is currently in a deadlock in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and Putin has only one move left, that is, wielding the nuclear stick and constantly threatening nuclear fear, wanting to force the United States and other Western countries to make concessions, so that it can be exchanged for the decent withdrawal from the Ukrainian conflict . Kozilev's judgment is also somewhat reasonable. After all, Putin himself said that unless Russia is forced into a desperate situation, Russia will not use nuclear weapons. The other sentence means that if the United States and other Western countries push Russia too tightly, Russia may also choose to use nuclear weapons. As a politician, Putin's statement is still clear, while as the vice chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference, Medvedev made a statement on social media, it was really unstoppable. Therefore, from the current opinions of the Russian top leaders, Russia's continuous voices of using nuclear weapons have also put Russia in a passive situation of international public opinion. Kozilev's judgment is indeed reasonable, but this does not entirely mean that Russia can only get rid of this bad situation in Ukraine through nuclear weapons threats and nuclear threats .
First, nuclear weapons focus on deterrence rather than implementation and use. Once a nuclear weapon is really used, it is to open the "Pandora's magic box". No one will have a good life. Ukraine is not a good life, Europe is not a good life, and in fact, Russia is not a good life. If humans do not want to return to the Stone Age and let the earth "format" it, nuclear weapons should not be used easily. All parties can use nuclear weapons to deter each other, but when it is really time to use them, they will definitely destroy themselves. No matter who uses nuclear weapons, it is the enemy of mankind and all mankind will fight together. From this perspective, Kozilev believes that Putin only has a nuclear stick left is not entirely true. The fundamental reason lies in the nuclear balance between major powers.
Second, although there is no hope for peace talks in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at present, looking at human history, any conflict always begins with war, but also ends with peace talks. Even the tragic wars like , , and , , will eventually return to the negotiating table and redistribute interests. Although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is in a stalemate, it will eventually return to the negotiating table. But at this moment, if you want to gain the weight you want at the negotiating table and to gain a larger share in the distribution of interests, it still depends on the advantage you occupy in the conflict. As for the current situation, Russia is actually invincible, and it is basically impossible for Russia to spit it out in the four eastern Ukraine states. Therefore, even if the Russian-Ukraine conflict continues, Russia will at least have a bottom-line weight. This is a result that must be accepted for Western countries such as Ukraine or the United States.
Third, Kozilev said that Putin only has the nuclear stick left as the only option to withdraw from the war with a decent exit. In fact, this statement can only show that Kozilev, as the former Russian Foreign Minister, only Western countries are seen in his eyes because of his pro-Western policy. In Kozilev's cognition, the whole world is the Western world, and it is not seen that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is actually the beginning of the new era of the Chinese and new era in the 21st 20s. Since the Russian-Ukraine conflict, a diversified political pattern is rapidly forming. Russia, China, India and some other regional powers have already shown that the United States wants to return to the past situation where the world is dominated by one word is gone forever. It is precisely because we have not had insight into the profound changes in the world situation and have not really seen that although Western countries such as the United States still show their power, today when the rise of diverse forces, the influence of Western countries such as the United States and the comprehensive strength to support this influence are actually undergoing tremendous changes. Whoever can adapt to this new change will be able to gain a place in the future world and the geopolitical pattern. When Putin proposed to build a strong sovereign state, this Russian-Ukrainian conflict may be an opportunity for Russia to rebirth.
In short, as a politician, you are not afraid of making mistakes, you are afraid that you still don’t know the mistakes after making mistakes. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Putin, as the Russian president, has continuously adjusted his domestic and foreign policies based on changes in the times. In fact, this shows that Putin is still the leading politician in Russian politics at present.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-