According to the population forecast released by United Nations on July 11, India's population will surpass China by 2023 and become the world's largest population country. If the prediction comes true, the series of chain reactions triggered by this may exceed many people's expectations.
The United Nations also predicts that by 2050, India's population will reach a record 1.668 billion, significantly exceeding us; as of 2022, India's population is 1.412 billion, which is close to our 1.426 billion.
Behind the growth of India's population, in addition to the high birth rate, it also includes the reasons such as the decrease in infant mortality rate and prolonged life expectancy caused by improved sanitation environment.
From this perspective, India's population structure is obviously much healthier than we do.
Due to the influence of family planning in the 1980s, although we proposed to allow third-children last year, due to the increase in costs and individual awakening, today we are no longer limited to quantity, but are beginning to pursue quality.
Today, in today's modern economy, population not only means population, but also ensures the growth of GDP in an economy.
From this, it may be possible to understand where the confidence of Indian Prime Minister Modi proposed to become a developed country by 2050 comes from. Modi's confidence comes from the growing population of more than one billion in India.
In modern society, population is the cornerstone of economic development.
A person, from birth to growth to marriage or even aging, experiences various economic behaviors such as consumption, education, investment, and employment. The individual's economic behavior is closely related to macroeconomic .
When the economy is good, people will consume ahead of time, people will invest venture capital and have the courage to start a business. This is the most obvious reflection of the good or bad economy on individuals.
For us, once India surpasses us in the total population next year, this not only means the title of population first, but more importantly, this population change will lead to a certain guidance on the external environment.
In the past, we relied on population to form a certain first-mover advantage, especially with cheap labor, our exported goods were of high quality and low price, and the huge population market attracted a lot of investment, from consumption to manufacturing, many foreign capital came to invest in China, which further drove economic growth.
Nowadays, the population structure has begun to age, and the growth effect of real estate on the economy in the early stages is gradually weakening. It is reflected in the birth data. The pressure on the population of real estate has begun to appear, which has formed a certain medium- and long-term dilemma.
In the past, real estate accounts for nearly a quarter of GDP, and now there is a third child. However, for more families, a third child means at least three bedrooms and one living room, which requires parents to have a certain source of economic income, a certain amount of savings, as well as stability in the future long-term income, and a companionship time for early childhood education, etc.
Considering these costs, the decline in our birth rate is inevitable for economic development to transition from quantity to quality, and the helplessness of rising costs such as real estate education.
We have seen the positive impact of real estate on the short-term economy and the boost of real estate on local income, but we may have ignored the personal burden on real estate and the pressure of repaying loans in the next few decades.
When this pressure is reflected in behavior, little life is one of the manifestations.
If we can explore the pressure problem more deeply, we can also see the recent popular vocabulary of inverse , lying flat, and even lying bad, which all illustrate how this pressure will affect individuals' expectations for their future, and even fertility decisions when the housing price-to-income ratio is too high.
Although population is a sociology, if we look at it from the logic of finance, the growth and birth rate of population essentially reflect the individual's comprehensive expected ratio for himself and even the future.
Is a stock worth long-term investment reflected in the stock price, and the rise and fall is of course a very obvious factor; if we regard the birth rate of the population as the rise and fall of the stock price, then this can at least explain part of the problem, that is, the personal future confidence reflected in the matter of having a baby is actually a serious shortage.
Today, many people say that our population is too large. If the population is smaller and smaller, our resources will be more, our allocation will be more reasonable, and everyone's interests will be greater.
But most people ignore the fact that today's total economic output and economic quality are based on the large population or the small population?
If it is the former, then the decline in population will definitely reflect the overall social utility of the society.
In other words, the conclusion that many people think that if the population is low, they can get more cakes.
Because our economic structure relies more on the cheap labor brought by a large population, rather than the high-tech industries and high-tech technologies brought by a small population.
More importantly, even if the so-called small population can obtain more resources, it is true that in the long run, from a 50- or even a hundred years perspective, it is difficult for us not to face the current dilemma of Japan.
Japan ranks the third largest economy in the world with a population of more than 100 million. Of course, this does not rely on the advantage of cheap labor, but the negative effects of Japan's aging are still extremely serious.
In essence, judging from today's technological strength, humans are far from able to rely on pure robots to replace most of human work.
In other words, some routine simple tasks still require a large population to complete.
The reason why labor in developed countries is expensive is that the population is sparse and the irreplaceable human resources are a very critical factor.
. Similar to examples like Japan, there are two things to give us experience and lessons.
The first point is that our per capita productivity efficiency is still far from comparable to that of Japan. The current low birth rate must require great efforts to encourage and reward. The reduction in consumption caused by the decline in population is something that we can't bear in the "world factory", especially when we still have so much infrastructure.
The second point is that even with the current size of the Japanese economy, aging is still a headache.
The population is not only related to the quality of the economy, but also to the future of an economy.
In the past, we have been the number one in the population position for too long, but now we are overtaken by India. One obvious benefit is that this will at least make us start to pay attention to the population issue, and make a longer-term plan for the future.
Today's population birth rate is the future economic vitality.
end.
Author: sir, a new youth's internal reference in the workplace. The logic behind the development of things is optimistic pessimist. Follow me and grind up the knowledge for you.
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