Liu Qiannan
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0014425
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI on the 10/12th was 1873 points, -1.6% month-on-month and -66.1% year-on-year.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index on the week of 10/7 was 1922.95, which was unchanged from the week of 9/30, and -58.6% year-on-year. Among them, the Shanghai-Mexi container freight rate is US$2399/FEU, which was unchanged from the week of 9/30, and -62.3% year-on-year. Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is US$2950/TEU, which was unchanged from the week of 9/30, and -61.8% year-on-year.
3. According to production news data, from January to September this year, Ningbo Zhoushan Port completed a container throughput of 26.318 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%.
4. As energy, food and service costs still rise, the U.S. PPI rose more than expected in September. On Wednesday, October 12, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the US PPI (producer price index) in September increased by 8.5% year-on-year, down from 8.7% last month, but higher than the expected 8.4%; PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, the first increase in three months, higher than the expected 0.2% and -0.1% last month.
[Traffic Outlook]
Container, International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 3.2% in 2022, the same as the July forecast; the global economic growth rate will further slow down to 2.7% in 2023, down 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast. From a fundamental perspective, the improvement of supply-side turnover efficiency has enabled effective transportation capacity to be released. After the National Day holiday, airlines have significantly reduced their capacity deployment, which is expected to alleviate the decline in freight rates. The demand side is affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and global high inflation, demand in European and American countries is expected to weaken significantly in the fourth quarter. The US PPI exceeded expectations in September, and the core CPI is expected to continue to rise strongly. The supply and demand pattern of container transportation is gradually turning to loosening, and freight rates are expected to continue to fall in the short term, but the decline has narrowed. In terms of dry bulk, coal-related coal-fired power restart boosts demand under the background of the European energy crisis, the domestic main production areas of thermal coal rebounded supply and transportation were restricted. The downstream power plants have strong efforts to replenish warehouses during the peak season, and there is still support for the demand for imported thermal coal. In terms of iron ore, the domestic epidemic has caused the reduction in scrap steel usage to support the demand for iron ore, and pay attention to the future production restrictions of steel mills and the progress of future infrastructure projects. In terms of food, shipment volume is affected by the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the decline in inland water levels in the United States. Shipping is still under pressure. It is expected that the water level of the Mississippi River will not improve before the end of October. Overall, the dry bulk freight rate is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of the peak season, but the height is limited.
soybean/meal
[Foreign market situation]
CBOT soybean index rose 1.12%, closing at 1404.5 cents/pit, and the US soybean meal index rose 1.34%, closing at 409.4 USD/short ton.
[Related Information]
1.USDA: October's monthly supply and demand report lowered soybean yield to 49.8 bush per acre (previous value of 50.5, expected 50.6), exported 2.045 billion bush (previous value of 2.085 billion), crushed 2.235 billion (previous value of 2.225 billion), driving carry-over inventory to 200 million bush (previous value of 245 million);
2. Oil World: Currently Argentina region is still facing stricter The heavy drought, with rainfall continuing to be low in the first 11 days of October and may continue until October 18 in the future, but the rainfall in Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Córdoba are still good, corn planting was delayed until October 6, reaching only 13%, compared with 24% last year. As farmers began sowing soybeans in late October, but the planting speed began to accelerate from mid-November;
3. Oil World: The significant increase in export sales of Argentina in September reduced the dependence on shipments of US soybeans in the world market in October and November.However, the unexpected delay in the US logistics chain has brought problems to soybean processors in many importing countries. Given the low seasonal export supply of Brazil , China began to purchase South American soybean meal;
4. My agricultural products: As of the week of October 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 11 oil plants was 1.5235 million tons, with a starting rate of 52.95%, of which soybean inventory was 3.7631 million tons, an increase of 33,100 tons compared with last week, an increase of 0.89%, a decrease of 1.6759 million tons compared with last year, a decrease of 30.81%. Soybean meal inventory was 341,100 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons compared with last week, an increase of 2.93%, and a decrease of 317,800 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 48.23%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: USDA's monthly supply and demand report continues to be unexpectedly favorable, but the market increase is not large, which may imply that the momentum of beans to rise is relatively limited, so it continues to maintain the long-term short-term idea;
2. Arbitrage: MRM01 price difference narrows
3. Options : Buy M2301 -C-4100&Sell M2301-C-3950 Leave (views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)
Oil sector
[Foreign market impact]
Cbot US soybean oil main price change range +0.20% to 65.60 cents/pound; BMD Horse palm oil main price change range +1.11% to RM3733/ton.
[Important Information]
1. The US Department of Agriculture released its October supply and demand report on Wednesday showed that the United States' soybean planting area in 2022/23 is estimated to be 87.5 million acres, and in September it is estimated to be 87.5 million acres. The United States' soybean harvest area in 2022/23 is estimated to be 86.6 million acres, and in September it is estimated to be 86.6 million acres. The US soybean yield in 2022/23 is estimated to be 49.8 bushels/acre, and is estimated to be 50.5 bushels/acre in September. The United States' soybean production in 2022/23 is estimated to be 4.313 billion bushels, and in September it is estimated to be 4.378 billion bushels .
2. PEKANBAR, secretary of the Indonesian Palm Oil Farmers Association, said that currently, oil palm farmers in Riau are very confused about the high prices of fertilizers. At the same time, oil palm plants rely heavily on fertilizers to produce high-quality products.
3.LaSalle Group: Although the flow of barge has improved after dredging, a large number of barges are still accumulated in different sections of the Mississippi River, and the draft/barge size is limited, so it is impossible to significantly increase the barge flow. Poor railway services have emerged, and trains to the West, which will eventually slow down the transportation of exported goods.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The oil and fat maintained a slight fluctuation yesterday, and soybean oil rose more due to the hot spot side. In the future, it is recommended to go long for 01 soybean oil when the dip is low, and try short for 05 vegetable oil when the high is high.
2. Arbitrage: Y2211-Y2301 regular set, part of it continues to be held.
1000 layout, Y2301-Y2305 set.
-800 layout below Y01-OI05 set.
3. Options: Stay waiting and see.
corn/corn starch
[Important news]
1. In October, the corn planting area of the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 88.6 million acres, the same month-on-month; in October, the corn harvest area of the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 80.8 million acres, the same month-on-month; in October, the corn yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 171.9 bushels/acre, the same month-on-month; in October, the corn yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 171.9 bushels/acre, the same month-on-month; in October, the corn yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 172.5 bushels/acre in September, the same month-on-month; in October, the corn yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 171.9 bushels/acre, and in September, the expected to be 172.5 bushels/acre in September. , a decrease of 0.6 bushels per acre month-on-month; in October, the United States' corn production in 2022/2023 was expected to be 13.895 billion bushels, and in September, it was expected to be 13.944 billion bushels, a decrease of 49 million bushels; in October, the United States' total corn supply in 2022/2023 was expected to be 15.322 billion bushels, and in September, it was expected to be 15.494 billion bushels, a decrease of 1 month-on-month 72 million bushels; in October, the total corn consumption in the United States in 2022/2023 was expected to be 14.15 billion bushels, and in September, it was expected to be 14.275 billion bushels, a decrease of 125 million bushels month-on-month; in October, the U.S. corn ending inventory in 2022/2023 was expected to be 1.172 billion bushels, and in September, it was expected to be 1.219 billion bushels, a decrease of 47 million bushels month-on-month.
2. The US Department of Agriculture released its October supply and demand report on Wednesday showed that Argentina's corn production in 2022/23 is estimated to be 55 million tons, and in September it is estimated to be 55 million tons.Argentina's corn exports in 2022/23 are estimated to be 41 million tons, and in September it is estimated to be 41 million tons. Brazil's corn production in 2022/23 is estimated to be 126 million tons, and in September it is estimated to be 126 million tons. Brazil's corn exports in 2022/23 are estimated to be 47 million tons, and in September it is estimated to be 47 million tons. China's corn imports in 2022/23 are estimated to be 18 million tons, and in September it is estimated to be 18 million tons. The global corn production in 2022/23 is estimated to be 1.16874 billion tons, and in September it is estimated to be 1.17258 billion tons. The global corn ending inventory for 2022/23 is estimated to be 301.19 million tons, and in September it is estimated to be 304.53 million tons.
3. In October, the wheat planting area of the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 45.7 million acres, and in September it is expected to be 47 million acres, a decrease of 1.3 million acres month-on-month; in October, the wheat harvest area of the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 35.5 million acres, a decrease of 37.5 million acres in September, a decrease of 2 million acres month-on-month; in October, the wheat yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 46.5 bushels/acre, a decrease of 47.5 bushels/acre in September, a decrease of 1.0 bushels/acre month-on-month; in October, the wheat yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 46.5 bushels/acre, a decrease of 47.5 bushels/acre month-on-month; in October, the wheat yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 1.0 bushels/acre month-on-month; in October, the wheat yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 46.5 bushels/acre, a decrease of 1.0 bushels/acre month-on-month; in October, the wheat yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 46.5 bushels/acre, a decrease of 47.5 bushels/acre month-on-month; in October, the wheat yield in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 1.0 bushels/acre month-on-month; in October, the wheat yield in the United States in 2022 It is expected to be 1.65 billion bushels, 1.783 billion bushels in September, a decrease of 133 million bushels month-on-month; the total wheat supply in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 2.439 billion bushels in October, and the total wheat supply in September is expected to be 2.553 billion bushels, a decrease of 114 million bushels month-on-month; the total wheat consumption in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 1.863 billion bushels in October, and the total wheat consumption in 2022/2023 is expected to be 1.943 billion bushels in September, a decrease of 80 million bushels month-on-month; the US end-of-year wheat inventory in 2022/2023 is expected to be 576 million bushels in October, and the September is expected to be 610 million bushels, a decrease of 34 million bushels month-on-month.
4. According to foreign media reports, France AgriMer, a crop office under the French Ministry of Agriculture, raised its French soft wheat export estimate on Wednesday to the non-EU region, which is currently estimated to be 15% higher than the previous year, but said sales will depend on Ukrainian cereal exports. FranceAgriMer said in a cereal supply and demand outlook report that France's current exports of soft wheat outside the 27 EU member states are estimated to be 10.1 million tons, up from the 10 million tons expected in July. France is the largest wheat producer in the EU. Affected by the thousands of droughts, the country's wheat production has declined slightly, but due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the export of wheat was blocked by the Black Sea , which benefited France from strong demand in the summer.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: US corn closed flat, support brought about by the reduction in US harvest was offset by support caused by lower demand estimates, macroeconomic weakened, during the autumn harvest of US corn, under the situation of no new changes in geopolitical conflict, the pressure of US corn futures price correction increased. Domestic corn futures prices are running strong in the short term, but there is not much room for further upward during the autumn harvest period, and the range is expected to fluctuate mainly. It is recommended that industry customers can wait for the rebound to participate in the hedging of the sell.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Wait for the rebound to sell c2301-C-2860, or sell c2301-C-2860 and sell c2301-P-2660. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
live pig
[Market Information]
1..Spot Quotation: Last night, the national live pig purchase price continued to rise, of which 26.4-26.8 yuan/kg in the Northeast region, up 0.4 yuan/kg, 26.8-27.4 yuan/kg in the North China region, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg, up 27.2-28 yuan/kg in the East China, holding Steady may rise slightly by 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg, 26.4-27.4 yuan/kg in the southwest region, up 0.2 yuan/kg, 27.8-28 yuan/kg in the south China region, maintaining stability;
2. Piglet sow prices: As of the week of October 8, 2022, the national price of 15 kilogram piglets was 665 yuan, up 28 yuan/head from the previous week, and the sow price was 1,781 yuan, up 1 yuan/head from the previous week;
3. EU agricultural market outlook: EU pork production will drop by 5% in 2022. Specifically, Germany, Poland , Belgium , Romanian and Italy were more affected, while Dutch and France were less affected. African swine fever (ASF) still had a serious impact on German pork production, with pork production falling by 10% year-on-year from January to June 2022; Spain's pork production growth momentum in 2022 was less than that in 2021.Due to the continued increase in investment costs and the combined impact of African swine fever, it is expected that the EU pork production will drop slightly by 0.7% in 2023;
4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" is 128.77, up 0.12 points, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index is 130.77, up 0.14 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 33.50 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 78.77 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; mutton was 67.27 yuan/kg, remaining the same; eggs were 12.04 yuan/kg, up 1.4%; white chicken 19.28 yuan/kg, down 1.1%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The tension in domestic spot fundamentals has not been fully resolved, but we need to be wary of the impact of futures prices due to policy intervention in the near futures. It is recommended to continue to maintain the idea of a small pullback and try short with a light position;
2. Arbitrage: LH1-3 reverse the set of
3. Options: Buy LH2301-P-23500 and sell LH2301-P-22500 (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Chicken
[Important information]
1. White-feathered broiler chicken: The price of Shandong feathered chicken is expected to fall by 0.05 to 4.45 yuan/jin tonight. ( Zhuochuang Information )
2. White-feathered broiler chicken seedlings: Shandong Dachang chicken seedlings will steadily priced at 4 yuan/feather tomorrow. (Zhuochuang Information)
3. Segmented products: On 10/12, the price of frozen large breasts in North China and Northeast China has been stable and strong, reaching 10.4-10.8 yuan/kg. (Zhuochuang Information)
4. Zhuochuang Information: On September 30-10/7, Zhuochuang Information monitored a total of 48.032 million birds of white-feathered broiler sample enterprises, a total of 48.032 million birds, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The survival rate of broiler breeding in September was 94%, an increase of 2pct from August month-on-month, and the same year-on-year period last year.
6. In September, China's white-feathered broiler output was 460 million, -1.7% month-on-month and -2.3% year-on-year. From January to September 2022, the total output of white-feathered broilers was 3.604 billion, a year-on-year-on-year.
7. According to Beijing News citing Reuters , according to data from European Food Safety Bureau , European Center for Disease Prevention and Control and the EU Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory, large-scale avian influenza has occurred in Europe since June, which has affected 37 European countries, from Svalbard Islands in Norway to Ukraine, which is the largest geographical range on record. The damage caused by Europe's avian influenza epidemic, which is known as the "largest scale in history", is also huge. At present, nearly 48 million birds have been culled.
[Traffic Outlook]
Supply end, it is expected that feather chicken slaughter will recover after the holiday, but considering that the amount of chicken seedlings in September is not much, it is expected that feather chicken supply in October will still be relatively small. On the demand side, the new crown epidemic problems in Shenyang, Liaoning, Yingkou , Haicheng , Jinzhou and other places recurred sporadically, and the epidemic rebounded in Shandong, suppressing transportation and terminal consumption. Considering that the consumption off-season is expected to be mainly fluctuating in the short term. The supply of seedlings in the fourth quarter is not large, and under the support of high breeding costs, the overall price of feather chickens is still expected to be at a high level.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot: Yesterday, the price of mainstream eggs in the country rose mainly, with the average price in the main production area being 5.66 yuan/jin, up 0.08 from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales area was 5.99 yuan/jin, up 0.11 from the previous trading day. Today, the national egg price rose mainly, and the prices in the Beijing market rose. The mainstream wholesale prices of Shimen, , Xinfadi, , Huilongguan, etc. were 270 yuan/44 jin, up 5 yuan from yesterday's price. As of 7 am, 7 cars arrived in Dayang Road, with normal sales. The mainstream wholesale prices were 280-285 yuan, up 5 yuan from yesterday's price. The price of eggs in Shanghai has been stable and rising. The price of ordinary pink eggs is 265 yuan/45 jin, the same as yesterday, and the red eggs are 169-170 yuan/27.5 jin, an increase of 3 yuan from yesterday. Today, the prices in Liaoning and Jilin have risen, and the prices of eggs in Heilongjiang have risen; most of the mainstream prices in Shandong have risen, the prices in Henan have risen, the prices in Shanxi have risen, the prices in Hebei have risen, the prices in Hubei have risen, the prices in Jiangsu have risen, and the prices in Anhui have risen, and the prices in local eggs have risen, and the prices of eggs continue to fluctuate and consolidate, and the goods are normal.
2. Zhuochuang data: In September 2022, the national number of laying hens on the rise was 1.184 billion, an increase of 0.2% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In September, the monthly emergence of the sample enterprises' egg hen seedlings (accounting for 50% of the country) was 37.46 million birds, an increase of 4.3% month-on-month and a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens in the main production areas in the country in October 7 was 13.9 million, a decrease of 3.8% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information, the elimination chickens in key production areas across the country were monitored and counted for days. The average elimination age of elimination chickens in the week of October 6 was 523 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: the national representative sales area of eggs in the week of October 6 was 7324 tons, a decrease of 3.3% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: Inventory and inventory in the production link in the week of October 6 increased, with an average weekly inventory of 1.2 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous week, and an average weekly inventory of 0.88 days from the previous week, an increase of 0.1 day from the previous week.
6. Yesterday, the price of eliminating chickens in the main production areas across the country was stable and fell, while prices in Shandong and Hubei in the main production areas rose. The average price of Taoji chickens in the main production areas was 6.6 yuan/jin, up 0.04
7. The European Food Safety Administration (EFSA) warned that this highly contagious avian influenza virus usually disappears in summer, but continues to exist this year. Experts worry that it could spread to humans and trigger another pandemic. This wave of avian influenza has affected 37 countries and is the largest avian influenza in the history of European outbreaks. Just recently, Spain discovered the first case of html infected with html influenza this year.
[Operation Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: In terms of inventory, based on the recent inventory data and replenishment data, the number of laying hens from inventory production will show a gradual decline in the future, and the current inventory is also at a low level in the same period in history. The egg laying rate this year is also relatively low, so the supply of eggs is relatively low. On the demand side, after the National Day, the epidemic broke out in various places, residents' stockpiling increased, and the demand for eggs increased in the short term. The spot price of eggs did not show a seasonal decline after the National Day, but the price was relatively strong, which shows that the supply and demand of eggs in the market were relatively tight. Judging from the current spot egg prices, the price of egg futures is relatively low. In addition, the price of futures in October is also relatively strong. It is recommended to continue holding long positions, but when the platform rose to 4600-4700, it is recommended to settle some long positions.
2. Arbitrage: Due to the strong spot price, it is expected that the near-month and the far-month are relatively weak. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
White sugar
[Important information]
1. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicted on Wednesday that the United States' sugar supply in 2022/23 will increase due to the increase in imports and a slight increase in domestic output. The U.S. government has been trying to increase the supply of sugar as consumers such as bakers and sugar merchants complain about the high price of sugar. In the monthly supply and demand report, USDA estimates that the total sugar supply in the United States in 2022/23 (starting from October) is 14.53 million short tons, up from the September estimate of 14.37 million short tons. The inventory/use ratio rose from 13.5% to 14.8%.
2. This month, China's sugar import volume increased by 500,000 tons in 2021/22, and other estimated data will not be adjusted for the time being. China's sugar production and sales ended in 2021/22. As of the end of September, the country's cumulative sugar production was 9.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.11 million tons from the previous year; the cumulative sugar sales amount was 8.67 million tons, a decrease of 950,000 tons from the previous year; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 90.7%, an acceleration of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year. The annual average price of sugar is 5,706 yuan per ton, which is within the forecast range, up 328 yuan per ton compared with the previous year, an increase of 6.1%; the annual average price of international raw sugar is 18.9 cents per pound, which is within the forecast range, up 2.3 cents per pound compared with the previous year, an increase of 13.9%.
3. The Brazilian Sugar Cane Industry Association (Unica) report shows that in the second half of September, the sugar production in the main production areas of central and southern Brazil was 1.7 million tons, a decrease of 27.3% from the same period in the previous year. Unica reported that in the second half of September, ethanol production in southern and central Brazil was 1.42 billion liters, a year-on-year decrease of 28.6%. Unica reported that in the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume in southern and central Brazil was 25.29 million tons, a decrease of 29.7% from the same period last year, as heavy rains occurred in the country's major sugarcane production areas.The report shows that in the second half of September, Brazilian sugar factories used 45.4% of sugar cane to make sugar.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Raw sugar Futures surged and fell. Rainfall in Brazil affected the pressing progress, but the decline in crude oil dragged down sugar prices. The rise in raw sugar has driven higher import costs, but the new domestic crush season has begun, demand is still weak, and it may still be mainly weak in the short term.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Cotton-Cotton Yarn
[Foreign market impact]
overnight ICE US cotton price fell sharply, with the December contract falling 3.6 cents/pound (-4.07%) to 84.86 cents/pound.
[Important Information]
1. As of 24:00 on October 11, the cotton processing data for 2022 are as follows: Xinjiang has a total of 141,100 tons of processing, a decrease of 58.08% from 336,600 tons in the same period last year. On the 11th, Xinjiang lint was processed 19,100 tons, while the daily processing volume was 45,200 tons in the same period last year.
2. According to the recent USDA report, global cotton production this year was reduced by 86,000 tons to 25.703 million tons, with little change in various countries; global cotton consumption was significantly reduced by 659,000 tons to 25.169 million tons, of which China lowered by 218,000 tons to 7.947 million tons, India lowered by 218,000 tons to 5.225 million tons, Pakistan lowered by 109,000 tons to 2.177 million tons; global cotton end-of-stage inventory increased by 678,000 tons to 19.131 million tons, of which China and China increased by 227,000 tons to 8.157 million tons, and India increased by 274,000 tons to 2.22 million tons. Global cotton consumption in the previous year also decreased by 456,000 tons to 25.554 million tons, and the consumption in the two years was reduced by 1.115 million tons. Report is empty.
3. According to feedback from private cotton companies in Punjab, , Rajasthan, and other places, seed cotton in the northern cotton area has been picked and marketed one after another since mid-to-late September. The cotton price delivered in October also fell to 6,500-6,550 rupees/Maud (MSP minimum purchase price is 6,080 rupees/combination). However, with the strong rebound in spot quotes of S-6/J34 and other old cotton in India in recent days, coupled with the continued rainfall in the central cotton area and the southern cotton area, farmers and cotton enterprises have increased their concerns about cotton production and quality in 2022/23, so the delivery price of new cotton rose slightly in October/November.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. One-sided: Currently, the average purchase price of cotton picking in the ginning mill is 5.4-5.8 yuan/kg. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton has risen slightly, and the highest price is as high as 6 yuan/kg, and the processing cost of lint increases. Due to the epidemic in Xinjiang, liquidity is restricted in various places, the progress of cotton processing is slow, and due to the difficulties in going out of Xinjiang, the domestic cotton inventory is low, textile factories are difficult to purchase, spot prices have risen, which supports the recent market prices. However, yesterday USDA significantly lowered global cotton consumption, and it is expected that Zheng cotton will fall after opening, but the current high-priced spot support is expected to have limited room for decline.
2. Arbitrage: Consider that January and May are the peak period for cotton listing, while September is low and the demand is good. It is recommended to consider shorting May and September.
3. Options: wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Peanuts
[Important information]
Yesterday, the domestic peanut prices were running smoothly, and peanuts in Jilin production areas were gradually drying one after another. It is expected that the shipment volume will increase in the near future. The sales in Henan production areas were mixed. The prices in some Baisha production areas were slightly raised by 0.05 yuan/jin, and the quotation remained at 5.25-5.40 yuan/jin; the Dahua production area continued to operate strongly, and the quotation remained at 5.25-5.35 yuan/jin. The arrival volume of oil plants is stable, and the overall price is relatively limited. The arrival volume of factories such as Luhua Laiyang, Zhengyang , Xinxiang remained at 200-400 tons, with a transaction price of 9500-9900 yuan/ton, and some of the high quoted price of 10,000 yuan/ton. Linyi Jinsheng and Yuhuang arrived in small quantities, and the transaction price of oil and rice was 9300-9600 yuan/ton.
Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running smoothly, and with the support of raw materials, the oil plant's oil meal is clearly willing to support the price. The price of peanut meal remains stable, while the price of peanut meal remains at 5300-5450 yuan/ton. Recently, peanut oil sales have been average, and the oil factory strategy mainly maintains the idea of keeping meals, while the willingness of other factories to enter the market has increased.In terms of price, the current mainstream quotation for domestic first-class ordinary peanut oil is 17,700 yuan/ton; the market quotation for small-pressed strong-flavored peanut oil is 20,000 yuan/ton.
[Operation suggestions]
One-sided: Peanuts kept fluctuating yesterday. Judging from the overall industrial structure, the current price of peanuts is relatively high. In addition to oil factories, the acceptance of high-priced peanuts is poor, and downstream consumption is also weakening. The current stage is in the stage of long-short game. The willingness of the oil factory to acquire will directly affect the peanut market, and the capital sentiment will also affect the height of the market, which has little to do with the fundamentals of peanuts. It is recommended to keep waiting and watching for the time being.
month difference: Stay waiting and see.
futures strategy: 01 contract basis is around -600, but the peanut market still has room for upward, so you can choose a higher point to operate. However, the peanut delivery library storage capacity is expected to be saturated. Before operation, the storage capacity should be confirmed and the source of old peanuts should be locked.
(the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
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