Gold has fallen 9.03% so far this year, and the closing price on Friday fell 5.38% from the same period last year. Gold has fallen more than $400 since its year-high in March. For comparison, gold fell 3.51% in 2021, with an average annual price of US$1,797.67 per ounce.
Any remarks about Fed rate hike affect the nerves of the market. Gold is usually regarded as a tool for to hedge inflation and economic uncertainty, but the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike caused the US dollar to rise, which means that gold priced in the US dollar is more expensive for investors holding other currencies; interest rate hikes also boost U.S. bond yields, which means that the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold increases.
So far this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for five consecutive times, and has raised interest rates for 75 basis points in the last three consecutive times, maintaining the strongest single interest rate hike since November 1994, with a total of 300 basis points in five interest rate hikes. This is also the Fed's most radical monetary tightening action since 1990. The growth rate costs of borrowing is faster than at any time since the 1980s, and the market expects two more major interest rate hikes this year.
However, the World Gold Council reported that the global gold reserves increased by 20 tons last month, and the willingness of central banks in various countries to purchase gold remained low; the net increase in August was lower than the increase of 37 tons in July.
comprehensively stated that for the future market of precious metals , Xiao Chu believes that paying attention to the support below. From the medium and long term, the probability of rebounding and rising in the future is relatively high. It is better to recommend that investors buy on dips. Personal opinion: investment is risky, so you should be cautious when entering the market. It is for your reference only!
2. Market review
International gold price opened 1651/ounce last week, with the highest intraday price of 1684.4/ounce, the lowest price of 1622.2/ounce, and the closing price of 1668.3/ounce, up 16.6 USD, and the increase of by 1.01%. In the domestic futures market, Shanghai gold main contract, the opening price is 385.00 yuan/gram, the intraday highest price is 391.00 yuan/gram, the lowest price is 382.30 yuan/gram, the closing price is 390.82 yuan/gram, up 3.18 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.82%; the opening price of the main contract of silver is 4430 yuan/kilogram, the intraday highest price is 4471 yuan/kilogram, the lowest price is 4274 yuan/kilogram, the closing price is 4424 yuan/kilogram, down 2.6%. Basically, last week's expectations,
3. Fundamental dynamics
1. Weekly news:
3. Gold futures fell for the second consecutive day on Monday, hitting a new low in two and a half years, as the yields of US dollar and treasury bonds rose.
Gold futures rebounded from a two-and-a-half low on Tuesday as the dollar's rally paused slightly, helping to restore gold's attractiveness, although the risk of the Fed's interest rate hike remains.
The benchmark yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose to its highest level in more than 12 years on Tuesday, as Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks that interest rates would be higher and could remain high for a long time. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit 3.974% on Tuesday, the highest since April 2010. The closing price rose 8.3 basis points to 3.9717%. The 10-year yield has soared by 145 basis points since early August.
On Wednesday, gold futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) rose strongly, rebounding from a two-and-a-half low, as the dollar fell and the tension in Europe geopolitical situation helped increase the risk-haven appeal of gold. However, the prospect of a sharp interest rate hike in the Federal Reserve has restricted the rise of gold.
Gold futures fell slightly on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields rose and market concerns about the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy grew. But the decline in the dollar offsets this concern.
data on Thursday showed that the U.S. GDP in the second quarter fell by 0.6% year-on-month. In addition, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 193,000 in the past week, lower than the market expectations of 215,000.
Gold futures rose slightly on Friday, hitting a week-long high as the dollar rate fell from its recent highs. But gold hit its biggest drop since March last year in the third quarter, as the prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes put gold in trouble.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce said that the personal consumption expenditure price index (i.e., core PCE) that excludes volatile food and energy rose 0.6% in August, while the index did not change in July. The core PCE index rose 4.9% year-on-year, up from the 4.7% year-on-year increase in July.
2, Gold ETF and US dollar index
[Gold ETF Position ] As of September 30, it has decreased by 1.45 tons from the previous day, and the current position is 939.7 tons.
The US dollar index and gold prices have been negatively correlated for a long time. Recently, the US dollar index has soared all the way, rising to a high of 114.580 on September 28, setting a new high in the past 20 years; the cumulative appreciation has been close to 20% since the beginning of the year; however, it has declined continuously in recent days; but it is still above the 110 mark.
Important reminder: The information in this article comes from publicly available materials. The accuracy, reliability, timeliness and completeness of the information contained in it strives to be accurate and reliable, but does not make any guarantees, either express or implied. The views and information published in this article are for investors' reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. futures has great risks and benefits. Please participate with caution. I sincerely apologize for the inconvenience caused to you. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation!
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