Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center survey shows that , market participants believe that gold prices are likely to fall this week.
vote showed that 43% of readers were bullish on the price of gold this week, 16% were bullish on the oscillations, and 40% were bearish on the price of gold this week.
Lu Jun
Chengdu Fengye Service Co., Ltd.
The international gold price maintained a weak oscillation and retracement in the week of August 22. Although it fell rapidly at the beginning of the week, it rebounded after hitting the low point of $1,727/ounce. However, it finally failed to cross the threshold of $1,765/ounce, and finally turned down again, closing at $1,738/ounce. A continuous pattern of negative results at the weekly level has been formed, and technical indicators have once again shown a short position.
At the Jackson Hall Central Bank Annual Meeting, Fed Chairman Powell once again released a relatively radical speech, which was also interpreted by the market as hawkish remarks. According to the previous Jackson Hall Central Bank annual meetings, the Federal Reserve Chairman will take this opportunity to release the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the future period. At present, the Fed is likely to continue to maintain a strong interest rate hike path, which has caused US Treasury yields and US dollar exchange rates to rise strongly, while other assets are sold. The US stock market fell sharply, and precious metals gold and silver failed to get rid of the fate of suppression.
Next, we need to continue to pay attention to the performance of relevant US data, because Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has sent a clear signal, so we will decide the intensity of interest rate hikes based on the data. On the one hand, we need to pay attention to the performance of US economic data, and on the other hand, we need to pay attention to the US inflation data. That is to say, even though the market is currently expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September to get higher and higher calls, if the consumer price index (CPI) data in August continues to fall, this will leave room for maneuver for the Fed. Of course, if economic data performs worse and worse, it will also interfere with the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
Therefore, although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hall Central Bank Annual Meeting show hawkishness, it is still unknown whether the Fed can continue to maintain a strong interest rate hike in the future. In other words, according to common sense, the Fed's interest rate hike will become weaker and weaker in the future. At present, the international gold price remains in a retracement correction. Although it is not ruled out that the gold price continues to retreat from the weekly line, the author still believes that the space for issuance should be limited. According to the previous period, after the international gold price tested $1,680 per ounce to stabilize and rebound, it stopped retracement near the 20-day moving average, which is undoubtedly caused by technical pressure.
To sum up, the author believes that the current international gold price has the possibility of second bottoming out of . The first thing to pay attention to is the support effect near the $1,700/ounce platform, and the second is the low-level area in the early stage. The pressure of rebound above is focused on $1,740 per ounce, and only by surpassing this place can you regain the rise.
Wu Di
Independent analyst
In terms of fundamentals, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hall central bank annual meeting emphasized the need to reduce inflation and supported the prospect of interest rate hikes. Powell said he could not rule out the possibility of another 75 basis points hike at the upcoming September meeting, reiterating that this depends largely on the macroeconomic data released in the next three weeks.
This week's data focus on the release of the new U.S. employment report that the US automatic data processing company ADP and Stanford will launch on Wednesday. Since this is the first release, it is difficult to predict the potential market reaction. The American Supply Management Association Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on Thursday, will be seen as a new driving factor. Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 non-farm employment report, amid a tightening labor market, the Federal Reserve refused to accept the claim that the United States has experienced a deep recession. The September interest rate decision depends largely on the development of the job market, and if the non-farm employment data are disappointing, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in the dollar, as it would increase the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike in September. On the other hand, if the non-farm employment data exceeds another 500,000 people, it may confirm a further significant interest rate hike, which will boost the US dollar.
Technically, although gold prices rebounded last week, they failed to break through the long-shoulder watershed of $1,764/ounce of that week. They made another effort at this position. Judging from the current overall trend, the short model remains intact and there is a risk of breaking downward to refresh the recent low. Before setting a new low, bulls should not rush to enter the market. This week, the center of gravity continued to move downward, and the long-short watershed adjusted to around $1,743/ounce. The current gold price is running below the watershed, which also shows that the market is still dominated by short positions and short selling at highs is still the main trading strategy.
The upper resistance is first concerned about the long and short watershed this week. If the gold price breaks through this position, the resistance can be paid attention to US$1,758/ounce, and the support below is $1,705/ounce. If it falls below this position, the support will be adjusted to around US$1,680/ounce. If there are signs of stabilization, you can go long with a light position at this position, trade at the position, and strictly stop loss. The above suggestions are personal opinions and are for reference only.
Week Zhicheng
Guantong Futures Precious Metals Researcher
Last week's data once again clearly showed that the US economy is in a technological recession, but the biggest feature is that even if the technological recession is, it cannot be reversed, and further interest rates are needed to curb the still-high inflation. Last Tuesday, the US Markit manufacturing, service and comprehensive PMI hit a new low in more than two years. U.S. property market data showed a recession continued last Tuesday, with new home sales accelerating in July, and inventory rose to levels when the real estate collapsed in 2008.
July durable goods orders announced last Wednesday increased by 0% month-on-month, lower than expected growth of 0.8%. Leading real estate indicators - the lowest sales of existing homes signed in July since the outbreak of the crown epidemic. Last Thursday, the U.S. Department of Commerce Economic Analysis Bureau (BEA) announced the quarterly quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP of the second quarter of the United States -0.6%, slightly higher than the general expectation -0.7%. Last week, the latest estimates of the U.S. economy will grow by 1.4% this year and 1.8% in 2023, which is a sharp drop from previous forecasts. The previous economic growth rate is expected to be 3.8% and 2.5% respectively in the next two years. In terms of inflation estimates, the White House expects inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to slow to 6.6% in the last quarter of the year, which is still more than double the U.S. government's last forecast. The White House expects inflation to fall to 2.8% by the end of 2023, still 0.5 percentage points higher than previous estimates.
Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's short and concise speech at Jackson Hall Central Bank's annual meeting, which only 8 minutes, triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks. Powell once again reiterated that "inflation does not stop and interest rate hikes continue", and said that after hikes at a level that is restrictive to economic growth, there will be no rush to cut interest rates; the main theme of his speech is "The Fed's current priority is to reduce inflation to the 2% target, and will use tools to achieve a better balance between supply and demand, and thus reduce inflation." The speech caused the US stock market to plunge , and the market's expectations for the Fed's 775 basis points increase in rate hikes in September also soared to around 60%. The economy has slowed down or even declined due to interest rate hikes, but it is impossible to stop interest rate hikes. This is the current bad situation in the United States. It seems that there is still room for gold prices to fluctuate and decline.
technical aspect, the weekly gold price line harvested a small negative line with upper and lower leads, the 4-hour line of gold price was oversold, and the USD index rebounded again to approaching 109. The upper resistance of gold price is $1,750/ounce, $1,772/ounce, and $1,800/ounce. The support below the gold price is at $1,700/ounce, $1,680/ounce, and $1,667/ounce.
Gold price has not yet ended its continuous decline from the rebound high. This week, the gold price is expected to oscillate between $1,747/ounce and $1,700/ounce. As the US August non-farm data was released this Friday, gold prices may fluctuate unexpectedly. The weekly silver price closed at a small negative line, with the gold-silver ratio rising to 92.1 times, and the silver price was oversold for 4-hour daily line. This week, the silver price is expected to oscillate and be short in the range of US$19.2/oz to US$18/oz. In terms of strategy, new silver positions can try to sell high and buy low in the range, and quickly enter and exit quickly.
Hongjie
Registered Senior Gold Investment Analyst
From the news, the Fed Chairman's speech at the annual meeting of the global central bank has maintained a hawkish tone, but has not yet resolved the debate on how much interest rate hikes may be raised in the September meeting. Powell made it clear that continuing to tighten is the path he will take, the US dollar index rebounded strongly, and there will still be some pressure on gold and silver in the short term.
From a technical perspective, it finally closed with a small negative line last week. From the perspective of technical form, demand will still be pulled back in the short term. The focus below is on the regional support of US$1,680/ounce to US$1,700/ounce. If it breaks effectively, a new round of decline may usher in a short term. The above focus on the pressure around $1,780/oz to $1,810/oz, and pay attention to the closing of html June line in the past two days. The overall idea of this week: range operation is appropriate.
Shen Guofu
Yongkun Holdings Investment Research Center precious metals analyst
Spot gold prices rebounded briefly last week, rebounding to around $1,765/ounce. On Friday night, Powell delivered a hawkish speech, reiterating that the Federal Reserve's policy did not turn, gold prices returned to the decline channel, and there was no signal of stopping the decline in the short term.
From the weekly K-line, the gold price has been negative for three consecutive weeks, and is in a downward channel, which has a test of the demand for the previous low. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate and fall this week, testing the $1,700/ounce integer mark.
Sunfeng
Shenyang Mint Co., Ltd.
The Fed's interest rate hike expects a decline in precious metal prices. In order to control inflation rate hikes, interest rates will affect gold prices, and international gold prices are expected to continue to fall this week.
(The above content does not constitute investment advice or operating guide. Entering the market accordingly is at your own risk)
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