htmlOn July 26, the domestic palm oil futures price rose again. As of July 26, 2022, the national average price of palm oil was 9,753 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.48% year-on-year; as of July 26, the continuous palm oil futures P2209 contract closed up 262 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.35%, the settlement price was 8,034 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8,078 yuan/ton, the highest intraday 8,236 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 7,784 yuan/ton, with a total handicap of 1018,823, holdings of 321,472, and the warehouse difference was 587. So what are the reasons for the rise in palm oil?
Weather helps, palm oil follows the rebound
US soybeans close higher overnight, and the weather forecast is expected to last longer, which may have an impact on the key pod development period in August. USDA Crop Growth Report shows that the US soybeans' excellent rate may continue to decline. With the support of favorable fundamentals, US soybean prices rebounded, the market's bullish atmosphere surged, and palm oil followed suit.
inventory decreased, and domestic spot stocks are in short supply
According to Mysteel survey, as of July 22, 2022 (week 29), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas across the country was about 272,100 tons, a decrease of 46,500 tons from last week, a decrease of 14.58%; compared with the 29th week of 2021, a decrease of 149,900 tons, a decrease of 35.52%. In China, the main focus is on consuming stock sources.
supply decreased, and the supply was limited. In June 2022, China's main importers of palm oil were Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The main import provinces from more to less are Jiangsu Province, Tianjin City, Anhui Province, Beijing City and Shanghai City. Among them, my country imported 69,200 tons of palm oil (palm liquid oil + palm stearate) from Indonesia, accounting for 49.96%; imported 69,100 tons of palm oil from Malaysia, accounting for 49.91%; imported 200 tons from the Philippines, accounting for 0.14%.
Data source: General Administration of Customs
In June 2022, China's palm liquid oil imports were 71,100 tons, and the import amount reached US$96,000. Among them, 28,300 tons of palm oil were imported from Malaysia, with an import amount of US$29,000, accounting for 39.87% of the import; 42,800 tons of palm oil were imported from Indonesia, with an import amount of US$67,000, accounting for 60.13%. my country's imports of palm stearic in June were 67,300 tons, with an import amount of US$110 million. Among them, 40,700 tons of palm stearin were imported from Malaysia, with an import amount of US$65,000, accounting for 60.49% of the import; 26,400 tons of palm stearin were imported from Indonesia, with an import amount of US$45,000, accounting for 39.22% of the import; 200 tons of palm stearin were imported from the Philippines, with an import amount of US$270,000, accounting for 0.3%.
Data source: General Administration of Customs
my country's imports of palm oil (palm liquid oil + palm stearate) in June were 138,500 tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons compared with the imports in May 2022, a decrease of 40.54% month-on-month, and a decrease of 339,300 tons compared with the same period in June 2021, a decrease of 71.01% year-on-year. In June 2022, palm liquid oil imports decreased by 34,500 tons compared with May 2022, a decrease of 32.66% month-on-month and a decrease of 296,900 tons compared with June 2021, a decrease of 80.66% year-on-year. In June 2022, palm stearic imports decreased by 59,900 tons compared with May 2022, a month-on-month decrease of 47.08%, and a year-on-year decrease of 42,000 tons compared with the same period in June 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 38.60%.
Data source: General Administration of Customs
At present, although the import profit of palm oil is in a trend of recovery, it still takes time. The domestic spot basis is still strong, but the long-term monthly quotations are still low. Palm oil itself is not driven by its fundamentals. Futures prices mostly follow the rebound of US soybeans, US soybean oil and crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-