Recently, the DPP conducted an internal poll in Xinzhuang District, New Taipei City, which has a population of more than 400,000. Among them, the mayor of New Taipei , Hou Youyi, received a 49.9% approval rating, and the candidate for New Taipei mayor of the DPP, Lin Jialong, received a 26.3% approval rating, and the gap between the two sides reached 23.6%. If converted based on the 2018 turnout rate, Hou Youyi will lead by nearly 500,000 votes. However, this poll is mainly based on the local verbs, and the green camp generally has a high support for young people, and the actual gap may be narrowed.
Taiwan "United Daily" conducted a poll of the mayors of the "Six Capitals" counties and cities at the end of July. Hou Youyi received a 57% approval rating and Lin Jialong had a 21% approval rating. The gap was quite surprising to the outside world. The public generally believed that the election would gradually narrow the distance after the start of the election.
However, the DPP conducted a poll especially in the traditional green constituency Xinzhuang District . The title is "At present, those who may run for the next mayor of New Taipei are Lin Jialong of the Democratic Progressive Party and Hou Youyi of the Kuomintang. Among these two people, who do you support to be our mayor?" 49.9% of those who answered that they supported Hou Youyi, 26.3% of those who supported Lin Jialong, and 23.8% were unable to select either candidate.
In "At present, there are several common political parties in Taiwan, such as the Kuomintang, the Democratic Progressive Party, the Taiwan People's Party, the 'Taiwan Fundamental Advancement', which party has a closer concept and proposition to you?" The Kuomintang support in the district is only 16.4%, while the Democratic Progressive Party has 32.2%. From the cross-analysis of the two data, it can be observed that many people who are not loyal supporters of the Kuomintang will also vote for Hou Youyi, and even attract some light green voters.
In addition, in the question "Will you vote for the 'nine-in-one' election at the end of this year?" 57.8% answered "It will definitely"; "It will probably" account for 27.2%. Judging from this poll, it is expected that the turnout rate will not be too low on November 26. If any candidate hopes that the election will cool down and return to the basic confrontation, it may be difficult.
Taiwan's " United News Network " pointed out that this poll was just a local interview, and did not use mobile phone interviews. Many young people do not take home calls, so voters under 39 account for only 15%. It can be seen that Hou Youyi has received extremely high support at the age of 40, but it is impossible to see the support tendency of young voters. Judging from past election experience, the DPP will have some advantages among young voters, so the current actual gap may be closer than the poll numbers.
This poll is done at the confidence level of 1071 people with a sampling error of 95%, and the sampling error is within plus or minus 3%. Since Lin Jialong's polls in the green constituency were significantly behind Hou Youyi, it can be said to be a key indicator. After the figure was released, it also puts some pressure on the green camp.
Li Kuncheng, spokesperson of Lin Jialong's campaign office, said that in fact, they all followed the election steps, and the "legislators" and members of parliament will do their best to assist. He also claimed that the current poll trend, Hou Youyi is going downward and Lin Jialong is going upward. The gap is getting closer, which means that they have achieved results in their review of Hou Youyi's governance issues and are very confident in winning the election.
Wang Minxu, spokesperson of Hou Youyi Election Office, said that he would like to thank every citizen for their support and affirmation of Mayor Hou and the New Taipei Municipal Government. Hou Youyi repeatedly reiterated that municipal work is the top priority at present, and no matter the polls are high and low, they will continue to reflect on themselves. (Lin Jingxian/editor)
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