Kenneth Rogov, a professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said recently that the dominance of the dollar is likely to end within 20 years, because after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States

Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recently said that , the dominance of the US dollar is likely to end within 20 years, because after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States and allies imposed sanctions to restrict Russia from entering the dollar-dominated global financial system, which will in turn stimulate the US dollar alternative.

The pace of global de-dollarization continues to accelerate. Rogov said that as Western sanctions restrict Russia from entering a global financial system dominated by the US dollar, this "dollar weaponization" behavior may further stimulate the demand for US dollar alternatives.

He pointed out that the United States blocked or frozen Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves is a historic development. The precedent of the Western world's financial sanctions imposed on Russia, led by the United States, is likely to accelerate competition with the US dollar within the international financial system. But it won't happen very quickly, it's just something that originally took 50 years to achieve, but now it may only take 20 years.

In response, Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs Group (Goldman Sachs) warned that , the US dollar faces the risk of weakening its global dominance. The dollar is facing some of the same challenges that the pound faced in the early 20th century. The pound was once the global reserve currency, but after accumulating a large amount of debt in World War II , international investors became increasingly reluctant to hold the pound. In the mid-20th century, its status was replaced by the US dollar.

Goldman Sachs in its research report shows that major investors are taking the risks faced by the US dollar seriously. Its analysts believe that these challenges faced by the US dollar include the relatively small share of global trade compared to its dominance in global payments. The situation of foreign assets in the United States continues to deteriorate, foreign debt continues to increase, and it also faces the problem of geopolitical . The

report pointed out that Britain accumulated a large amount of debt in World War II. In comparison with GDP, the debt of reserve currency issuers has increased relatively, and eventually foreigners may become increasingly reluctant to hold more reserve currencies. In addition, the United States and its allies freeze most of the foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Central Bank , which has caused concerns that countries may begin to give up the use of the US dollar because of concerns that this currency has given the power to the United States.

First vice president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Gita Gopinas (Gita), first vice president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Gopinath previously stated that , the financial sanctions of Western countries on Russia may weaken the dominance of the US dollar and lead to the more differentiated international monetary system .

However, in the face of remarks that criticize the global dominance of the US dollar, 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics winner Krugman (Paul Krugman wrote an article about , and he believed that the dollar would not lose its dominance in the global financial system. He explained that the dollar has long dominated because there is no credible and comparable rival currency. European political division makes it difficult for the euro to replace the dollar. He believes that even the dominance of the dollar is eroded.

He pointed out that economists have traditionally believed that currency has three major functions, including transaction media, store of value, and unit of denomination. The dollar is unique in that it plays an important role in transnational business transactions, and the dollar is used as a medium of transactions between currencies. Secondly, the dollar is the global reserve currency, and people from all over the world open US dollar bank accounts. The dollar is even more International denomination units, many items outside the US dollar are denominated in US dollars, and many international bonds promise to be paid in US dollars. Under this basis, because others use US dollars, people use US dollars themselves, which will form a self-enhanced feedback loop to strengthen the dominant position of the US dollar.

can the euro replace the US dollar? Krugman pointed out that the European economy and financial market are large enough. Many people outside Europe hold euro assets, and export to Europe is denominated in euros. But the United States still maintains an advantage, that is, the US bond market is extremely large and has high liquidity. In the past, when the RMB performed strongly, there would be calls to challenge the US dollar position, but he said that the RMB has not yet reached the point of threatening the US dollar position.