On Wednesday, the US dollar offshore RMB exchange rate hit a new high of 7.2673 in the session, and then turned downward and fell all the way. As of now, the US dollar offshore RMB exchange rate has remained fluctuating up and down at the 7.1255 line.
has risen sharply from the intraday high point to its current position in just three working days, and the RMB has appreciated sharply by about 1,300 points. What exactly happened in the middle? What profound impact will it have on us?
Since the beginning of this year, Huanghuai Hongda has clearly pointed out that RMB exchange rate will enter a long-term depreciation channel. At that time, Huanghuai Hongda predicted that this year's RMB exchange rate will hit the largest depreciation within the year in the past decade, and what profound impact will the RMB enter a long-term depreciation trend on the domestic agricultural product storage industry? Analyze and interpret!
is at the current time node. Looking back, the trend line of the RMB exchange rate is extremely firm and powerful, which is extremely consistent with Huanghuai Hongda’s original prediction!
In recent days, the RMB exchange rate has seen a significant short-term appreciation. One of the most important reasons is: starting from September 28, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of our forward foreign exchange sales business has been increased from 0% to 20%. The emergence of
is understood by many industry insiders as our managers have initiated regulatory measures on exchange rate changes.
Forward Forward is one of the exchange rate hedging products provided by banks for enterprises. It refers to the bank and domestic institutions negotiating and signing forward foreign exchange settlement and sale contracts, and agreeing to handle foreign exchange currency, amount, exchange rate and term for future foreign exchange settlement or sale; when the foreign exchange income or expenditure occurs, the foreign exchange settlement or sale shall be handled in accordance with the prescribed currency, amount, and exchange rate of the forward foreign exchange settlement and sale contract.
Because forward foreign exchange purchases in enterprises are a future behavior of enterprises, banks need to purchase foreign exchange in the spot market, which will not only affect the spot exchange rate , but also affect the forward foreign exchange purchase results of enterprises. When enterprises centrally purchase foreign exchange, it is easy to trigger the herd effect , which has a great impact on the short-term exchange rate of the RMB.
increases the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, which is equivalent to requiring banks to make early risk control in order to deal with possible future losses, and then through price transmission, inhibiting the pro-cyclical behavior of enterprises' forward foreign exchange sales!
Judging from the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rate trends in recent days, the increase in the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio has played a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate.
Huanghuai Hongda believes that due to the continuous hike of the US dollar in , the US dollar index breaks through the historical high, the increase in the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio will only have a short-term impact on the RMB exchange rate. In the long run, it will not completely change the trend of the RMB's continuous depreciation!
Another thing to note is that we have lowered the interest rate for first-home homes at the management level. Most second- and third-tier cities in China have entered the ranks of preferential first-home home interest rate.
Many friends understand that in terms of maintaining exchange rates or housing prices, what managers are confident in can still ensure housing prices. After all, various tax and fee systems established around the real estate industry are the cornerstones to support local managers. Once this cornerstone loosens, the impact scope and chain reaction will be huge.
In the next fourth quarter, if the export market and the domestic economy cannot speed up as expected, large infrastructure and housing prices will become the primary issues that managers in various places have to consider.
At the beginning of this year, Huanghuai Hongda made several in-depth analysis and interpretation of the economic development trends throughout the year. Of course, most of our analysis is still based on agricultural products.
Many friends may not understand why the depreciation of the RMB will cause the price of certain agricultural products to rise or fall?
RMB depreciates, the domestic economic growth rate has slowed down, and the grassroots people's ability to obtain money is limited. According to the habits of the Chinese people, shouldn't they tighten their belts and live a life? Since we are all ready to live a tight life, shouldn’t consumption shrink year-on-year? Consumption shrinks, shouldn’t agricultural products fall?
Why does Huanghuai Hongda still believe that peanuts, wheat, corn, pigs and garlic will enter the upward trend of prices this year?
The reason for this is that Huang Huai Hongda has already mentioned in the previous posts. Friends who are interested can enter the main face of Huang Huai Hongda and read the previous posts.
Judging from the current trend of RMB depreciation, domestic agricultural product prices will appear again in the second half of 2020, similar situations! The extent of changes in the price of certain agricultural products will even exceed that of the second half of 2020.
is for corn and wheat. It is recommended that friends can participate with confidence, but it should be noted that due to the rapid liquidity of agricultural products, liquidity acquisitions should be done as much as possible during the acquisition process to avoid long-term storage. As long as the liquidity is made large enough and profits accumulate, it is also considerable!
For pigs, it is recommended that small and medium-sized farmers choose to buy some small white strips . Now, they can be sold around the Spring Festival. Do relevant diseases prevention and reduce the mortality rate. There will be good returns!
is aimed at peanut agricultural products. It is recommended that storage merchants participate on dips. The peanut price this year is expected to hit a new high in recent years!
For garlic agricultural products, storage providers that have been collected and stored in the warehouse can relax. Since they have chosen to buy storage at a low level this year, they must have the corresponding ability to fight risk and strikes. Who can stick to it? It means who can laugh to the end!
hereby reminds all friends that the analysis and interpretation of garlic has been transferred to the column of Garlic Tongtianxia Garlic World Experts and Hundred Schools of Garlic. Friends in need can go and follow! Is
exactly the same as Huanghuai’s grand judgment? Let's wait and see!
or above is only the opinion of Huanghuai Hongdae, for reference only!
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